6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

The Angels may let Jered Weaver re-enter the draft, according to the Register. (It's the last story on the bottom of the page.) The club and Weaver are said to be about $2M apart.

Thanks to Rich Lederer, who didn't want to dust his topline story for it, for dropping the line.

Via AP, the Dodgers agreed to contracts with fourteen players, the particular players being David Ross, Hee-Seop Choi, Yhency Brazoban, Duaner Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, Joel Hanrahan, RHP Derek Johnson, Frank Brooks, Orlando Rodriguez, Willy Aybar, Joe Thurston (!!), Jason Grabowski, Chin-Feng Chen, and Henri Stanley.

BA has a list up today of the top 20 rookies:

• Dallas McPherson, 3b: McPherson will have to produce right away because the Angels are built to win, but he has the bat to do it.

In the top longshot rookies, the Angels also have Casey Kotchman (because he's blocked); the Dodgers have Edwin Jackson (due to setbacks last year).

There's also a list of the top 100 rookies that will be out pretty soon. ESPN had the list published in full on the Insider pages, but their server tanked. Oops.

At Baseball Analysts.

Kendry Morales Decreasingly Likely To Make The Club

As each day passes that Kendry Morales doesn't appear in an Angels uniform, so does another day pass that he won't make the team. Morales remains stuck in the Dominican with visa problems thanks to his defection from Cuba.

Kennedy Takes Groundballs

In that same story: Adam Kennedy took grounders, two days ahead of schedule. The balls, easy balls hit straight at him, proved no challenge for the second baseman, but "'[i]f I had to move to my right and throw back across my body, it might be a different story,' Kennedy said." Kennedy tore two ligaments fielding an Ichiro groundball last year.

Escobar Throws From The Mound

Also: Kelvim Escobar threw a bullpen session, and said "I feel real, real good". Escobar is projected to enter the rotation in the fifth spot.

The Ultimate Revenge

Jeff Kent entering the Hall of Fame in a Dodgers uniform? Heh, you bet, and talk about a sweet way for the Dodgers twist the knife a little.

Frankie Goes To Hollywood -- And Rodeo Drive, And ...

The Angels have taken a cautious path with their new closer and have declined to long-term him. Instead, they've elected to negotiate with him after the season is over; if he has a good year, as expected, the Angels will have to pay far more than they would if he were signed now. Frankie will make from $425,000 to $500,000 this year and will be arbitration-eligible in 2006.

Penny Throws From The Mound

Brad Penny threw 50 pitches from the mound, to no ill effect.

How To Shut Down 419 Scammers

Is this not the coolest thing ever? Well, pretty cool, anyway. Scammers set up fake bank websites to swindle those too dumb to realize that, no, there's no former Nigerian oil minister waiting to give you a million or two in exchange for your bank account number. These guys turn around and flood their websites with traffic until they cry Uncle, or their service providers do. Heh.

One of the serendipitous things about this blog is the number of people willing to simply give me things -- tickets, mostly, but sometimes other things, too. About this time in January, I received the following e-mail:

I enjoy your blog and the comments you make on Jon's site. I have a tape of the one and only Vin Scully that I think you would enjoy. Actually I should change "think" to "know," given your comment about Vin today on Dodger Thoughts. If you send me your address I will get the tape in the mail to you. I won't spoil the thrill of discovery by telling you in advance what is on the tape. No fair asking Jon what you will be getting, but I sent a similiar tape to him about a month ago. Feel free to contact him if you have any question whether I am legit.

A quick e-mail to Jon -- who had already received his -- suggested that the tape was in fact legit, and very interesting. Jon wrote back that he wanted to write about it "as soon as I can", but I suspect the duties of fatherhood have distracted him, and so some of the responsibility falls upon my shoulders. Allow me to say this: while I will leave to Jon's superior artistic abilities the description of the many rubies and emeralds on this tape, I can only hope you appreciate this love offering, this diamond, as much as I did: Vin Scully calls the ninth inning of Sandy Koufax's perfect game. As a little extra treat, at the end, an interview with Vin about why he called the ninth the way he did. (Any audio artifacts are a side-effect of removing tape hiss, distortion, and other related problems.)

Stan: thank you so much. And for everyone else: well, get it while you can before Lon Rosen makes me pull it down.

Update, 3/2: Thanks to LA Observed for the link today. And on 3/3, I discovered that Jay Jaffe linked to me. Well, that's about as high praise as you can get. Thanks, guys.

John Sickels has a shiny new projection system, which he inaugurates with a projection of D-Mac's 2005. Without getting into the far greater detail Tom Meagher did with the Dodgers, here's three different projection systems side-by-side on D-Mac:

System   AB    H  2B  3B  HR  BB   K    BA/OBP/SLG     SB   CS
===============================================================
JSPS-2  445  118  24   5  22  36  115  .265/.320/.490   6    4
PECOTA  324   88  19   2  16  36   98  .272/.351/.496   5    2
ZiPS    501  138  26   6  27  47  153  .275/.341/.513  14    8

ZiPS is pretty clearly stoked about his power, and thinks he'll end up an easy Jackie Robinson Award winner next year, what with 27 dingers; all the systems seem to think he'll mash, with SLG's around the .500 mark, but only PECOTA seems to think he'll clear the .350 mark OBP. Unless PECOTA thinks he's going to be injured, though, you have to wonder why it assigns him only 324 AB's, and indeed, playing time, home runs, and strikeouts seem to be the biggest divergence between the three systems. ZiPS thinks he's going to flat-out stink in terms of strikeouts, with a .305 K rate, but the other two aren't far behind. None of the systems like his ability to steal bases, though you have to wonder why Mike would send him when he gets caught 57% of the time.

Update: More on this at The Fourth Outfielder, including a discussion of Marcels and Mariners prospect Jeremy Reed.

Good gravy, it's getting harder and harder to keep up with all the blogs these days. SPORTSblogs has two new guys now: Amazin' Avenue for New York City's other team (probably a good thing now that The Raindrops has lapsed into a coma), and Gaslamp Ball, a Padres blog. And here's a really unusual one, in both Spanish and English: 1-800-BEISBOL. Wild.

Sure, the Oscars get better press, better turnout from the stars, and actual TV coverage, but the Razzies are a necessary force in Hollywood. Skewering Tinseltown's trash for a quarter century, previous "winners" have but rarely showed up to accept their "awards". But last night, the usually unkempt affair was shocked when nominal A-lister Halle Berry actually showed up to accept her award, and made, according to those present, a delightful acceptance speech. I here excerpt from an e-mail forwarded by Craig Miller, who witnessed the thing:

Being a major anniversary for them, rather than being in an overcrowded hotel ballroom, as they frequently are, this year the Razzies were held in the Ivar Theatre in Hollywood. Despite the larger venue -- probably double the size of most years' sites -- dozens of people were turned away.

The show started -- as usual -- with a musical number. This year it was "Lame", sung to the tune of "Fame", and served to describe what typical Razzie winners are.

The show is always cheeky, with most of the humor coming during the announcements of nominees in each category from a reading of some of the most scathing review quotes imaginable for each nominated film (all given with citations of their sources).

Very rarely do "winners" show up to collect their awards. I can only recall two instances. ... But last night's show was different. First, one of the writers of Catwoman was in the audience and came on stage to accept the award for Worst Screenplay. The applause (and astonishment) for his being there was so loud, I'm not sure which writer it was. I could make out his first name but, there being two writers in the credits named John, I'm not sure if he was John Brancato or John Rogers. I think the former. He went on to thank the 27 other writers who worked on the screenplay and his accountant, who had let him know about some financial crisis that made his participation mandatory.

Later in the evening, Julie Newmar, the original Catwoman on the 1960s TV version of Batman, came on stage to accept the Worst Picture award (to Catwoman) "on behalf of the producers". I don't think the producers actually sent her. She gave an amusing, if disjointed, acceptance speech, including surprise that she's never been invited before. She went on to mention some of her performances that might have elicited a Razzie win.

But the highlight of the evening, bringing the audience to its feet, was when John Wilson, founder of the Razzies and a member of the award show cast, announced that the award for Worst Actress (Halle Berry, in Catwoman) was being accepted by Halle Berry.

He pointed offstage, into the wings, and the audience didn't know what to expect. The writer is one thing but... There was a pause and we were kind of expecting one of the show cast -- probably Chip Dornell, the Black male cast member -- to come on stage in a wig and costume to do some kind of parody.

But, holy crap, it really was Halle Berry.

She gave a great speech.

She came out carrying her Oscar, took the Golden Raspberry Award in her other hand, and gave the opening few moments of her breathless, shocked Oscar speech. And then went into remarks for us. I can't remember everything she said but, among them, she thanked Warner Bros. for putting her into "a piece of crap movie". She thanked her manager, who she brought out on stage, and told him, next time he recommends she do a picture, he should read the script and not just the number of zeroes after the one. She admitted that her acting in it was terrible and, in a parody of frequent award show comments, said that acting as bad as hers was doesn't happen in a vacuum. It required bad acting from dozens of other actors. And she brought on stage an actor named Alex Borstein who appeared in Catwoman with her. They did a bit with Borstein (who is female) staring at Berry's very visible cleavage while she spoke.

Berry culminated her speech by saying that, when she was young, her mother gave her some advice which can be summed up as "If you can't accept criticism, you aren't worthy of praise; if you can't lose gracefully, you don't deserve to win." Berry talked about how she started out in beauty pagents and she won the first three pagents she entered. Her fourth pagent was Miss USA and it came down to her and "this gorgeous, buxom blonde". Berry knew she wasn't going to win. And, sure enough, the blonde was the winner. In her mind, she knew her mother's advice. She should think kindly of the winner. But, deep down, she "just wanted to bitch slap that girl's face". She continued: "And I just want to bitch slap all of your faces but," she took a deep breath, "No. I remember my mother's advice. I'll accept this award gratefully and hope I never see you people again."

And with that, she walked back into the wings to a standing ovation. The speech was in no way bitter and she, several times, blamed herself for what she did. She also said that, "if I ever get another acting job," now the Oscar winner pressure is off her, so she's glad for this.

Berry, whose previous work ran from brilliant to mediocre, and with Catwoman, to craptacular (okay, so I didn't see it -- even the trailers stank), won an Oscar just last year for Monster's Ball. That statuette, we now know, will add another four years to her life according to Canadian researchers. It makes one optimistic that Berry's learned something from this, and more, is a good sport, a genuine rarity in Hollywood.

Born in the middle of a second big baby boom
Those noisy boys just might have spoken up too soon
Now I'm looking for a little girl, I wonder where she's gone
Big money for families having more than one

Opportunity, opportunity
This is your big opportunity
They shop around
follow you without a sound
Whatever you do now
Don't turn around

-- Elvis Costello, "Opportunity"

This TCPalm.com story says that the Dodgers' rickety rotation has created "opportunities" for guys like Scott Erickson, and no wonder: the Dodgers barely have anybody able to pitch at the moment.

"The intra-squad game is not going to take place from the standpoint of amount of pitchers," he said. "If we were to play an intra-squad game, it would have been a total of three innings. We've got a situation we're dealing with. We don't want to extend it out and create any additional problems."

So no, no intrasquad game. No surprise when your injured list includes Brad Penny (biceps nerve problem), Odalis Perez (biceps tendonitis), NRI Mike Venafro (hamstring pull), Elmer Dessens (strained calf muscle), and Eric Gagné (knee sprain). Not. Good.

Now here's an interesting-looking read: What I Learned From Jackie Robinson, by Carl Erskine. From the New Orleans Times-Picayne review:

This happens to be the Golden Anniversary of what took place in 1955, at exactly 3:43 p.m. Oct. 4 in Yankee Stadium, when Pee Wee Reese threw out Elston Howard to end Game 7, crowning Brooklyn's Bums kings of the universe. It was their first and only world championship.

To this day, Erskine tells us, a group of cult fans are involved in a public ritual of visiting the Ebbets Field site (now an apartment complex) every Oct. 4 at 3:43 in the afternoon.

That was eight years after pioneering Jackie Robinson was voted Rookie of the Year, seven years after Robinson told minor-leaguer Erskine, after facing him in spring training, "young man, you're going to be with us real soon."

It wasn't long before Erskine was in the company of Robinson, Reese, Duke Snider, Gil Hodges, Roy Campanella and Carl Furillo, pitching in a ballpark where the outfield fences shouted "GEM Feather-Weight Razor," "Botany Ties," "Schaefer Beer," where Shorty's five-piece Sym-Phony Band made life miserable for the visiting team.

At the time, Erskine was watching Robinson live a miserable baseball life, on and off the field, after promising Branch Rickey, the man who signed him to break baseball's color line, he'd turn the other cheek to abuse.

"This was a man," writes Erskine, "who went swimming as a kid in a reservoir and ended up being interrogated behind bright lights used for criminals by a local sheriff who sent out for watermelon and proceeded to humiliate Jackie and his friends. This was a man who had fought for his country and was nearly court martialed for failing to sit in the back of the bus."

There is a reason they call Tommy John surgery "the pitcher's best friend": not only does it extend careers, it frequently improves velocity for players after they've had the operation done. Paul Byrd is one of them:

Byrd was never blessed with great velocity, and when he had elbow ligament replacement surgery in 2003, it could have been a death knell to his career. But it has been a boon.

Byrd, whose fastball usually tops out around 86 mph, has picked up more velocity since the surgery and has been able to throw a sinker, which his elbow couldn't handle before. Given that Byrd won 17 games with Kansas City in 2002, the Angels are hopeful his innings-eating ability, paired with what should be a prolific offense, produces wins by the bushel.

Last year, when I wrote my review of the NL contenders' pitching rotations, I noted that Byrd's K/BB -- essentially, measured control -- had more than doubled over his 2002 season, while his K/9 jumped almost two whole points. Those are very, very impressive stats; two years out from a Tommy John surgery, this could be a huge signing for the Angels. In my first, off-the-cuff and, yes, even facile analysis of the situation, I didn't view Byrd as anything better than a fifth starter, another Aaron Sele to be tossed around in the rotation. This was largely based on the PECOTA-projected 17.7 VORP he was expected to have this year, but PECOTA is notoriously weak when it comes to estimating the value of players recovering from injuries. Indeed, given the 90% recovery rate recently cited by Will Carroll (see his comments under Ryan Dempster), it's beginning to look more and more as though this ought to be considered as a basis for making projections, as most pitchers who went down injured historically got worse, not better; the Tommy John era, after all, only covers about thirty years.

Given Byrd's recent improvements, it's fair to suggest he may end up being the Angels' number two this season.

---

More stuff later on. For now, the dogs are demanding a walk, and who am I to say no on a beautiful, sunny morning?

Buncha little items before I run off to Blair Field to see Tony Gwynn and the SDSU Aztecs --

Nakamura's Visa Troubles Over, Expected Tuesday

AP reports Norihiro Nakamura's visa problems are behind him, and he will be in camp on Tuesday.

More On Cuban Defectors

The story Raul passed on the other day about American mules has finally hit the English-language press, this time in the Miami Herald.

In the past 16 months, 38 Cuban baseball players have fled the island, with many passing through the Dominican, including pitcher Alay Soler and infielder Kendry Morales, who signed multimillion contracts while in Santo Domingo.

Juan Rivera Finally In Camp

Juan Rivera is in Tempe, according to the AP, leaving Kendry Morales and his missing citizenship papers back in Cuba, er, the Dominican.

T-Shirts For The Cranky Angels Fan

It's a good day to be cranky, I guess, which is why -- if you feel really strongly about the LAAoA deal -- you can shell out your bucks for this t-shirt. Me, I just want the damn club to win, regardless of the name on the front of the jersey, or on the stadium, or anywhere else, for that matter.

I know how much Scioscia must like Chone Figgins, because he's covering up for Figgins' postseason miscues:

"Figgy and others in it for the first time came away with the understanding that there's more riding on playoff games, momentum can turn in a heartbeat, but you need to play your game," manager Mike Scioscia said. "It makes you a better player."

Except for one small problem: it simply isn't true. Figgy appeared in the 2002 postseason, where he had a 1.000/1.000/1.000 line in one at bat, scoring four runs. Is Mike forgetful? Or just playing PR man?

Whew.

Raul gifted us with two stories yesterday. First, this bit about how Kendry Morales is now considered a traitor because of his defection; all his records now have an asterisk next to them, though I wonder what that might mean exactly. Unfortunately, because he entered the Dominican illegally, his acquiring a passport is a little difficult, and that is the hangup.

Second, this piece linking to this El Nacional story about mules using Hispaniola as a bridge for ballplayers hoping to immigrate to the US from Cuba. The ring used government employees to assist them; the players will be repatriated to Cuba soon, unfortunately.

The era of Disney in sports is finally over as Disney sold the Mighty Ducks hockey franchise to billionaire Henry Samueli and his wife, Susan. Samueli, who also owns the Arrowhead Pond, has already had to fend off questions about the Los Angeles Mighty Ducks of Anaheim. He might consider a less lame team name, though.

OT: Oh, Rhett

One of my girlfriends in college absolutely adored romance novels, and had stacks and stacks of the things. There was even a used bookstore that specialized in Harlequin romances, which of course she used to rotate through her stock. She being my first girlfriend everrr, if I ever was tempted to ask something like, "Honey, isn't all that just mindless trash?", I never succumbed, and besides, being a fan of science fiction (which she also read), it hardly gave me any room to brag. Still, the genre's just a big, fat target waiting to be goosed. Like this.

OT: Be Nice To Me, Fox, I Have A DVR

The offseason being still fairly slow, I've posted more than the usual number of offtopic stories, and for that I apologize somewhat. Hopefully it's not too much of an intrusion. That said, the network boys are starting to figure out that the DVR is no more their enemy than the VCR before it. In fact, according to a recent study, DVR users are "voracious consumers" of other media, spending 43% more time with magazines, 48% more time reading newspapers, 40% more time with the Internet, and 17% more television. Nielsen, originally scheduled to start reporting the effects of DVRs on advertising this year, has decided to postpone this research until 2006, making TV networks happy but annoying the advertisers, who rightly believe the DVR is having a devastating effect upon their efforts.

What Am I Bid?

Jered Weaver remains as unsigned as he was last year, but thanks to the efforts of Gabe Laques at the Daily News, we know that Jered Weaver has an offer of $7M on the table.

Update: Richard picks up this Times story indicating Weaver has dropped his asking price to $8M/4 years, though the Angels were bidding $6M/5 years.

Players Still Stuck

In that same story above, visa problems continue to plague Kendry Morales and Juan Rivera; neither is expected in the U.S. by this weekend, and may not arrive "until well into next week." Similarly, according to this Vero Beach Press-Journal article, 3B Nakamura is stuck in Japan with no ETA in the US as of yet.

Sickels On The Angels' Farm System

Yes, it's John Sickels' top twenty in the Angels' system. Comments added are Sickels':

1. Casey Kotchman, 1B, A-          
   
2. Dallas McPherson, 3B, A-: McPherson will be a subject of a larger post later this spring ... the strikeouts are a concern ... underrated defensively. He's not GREAT or even good, but he's not as bad as people make out. He has a strong arm and good range for such a big guy.
3. Erick Aybar, SS, A-: I love Aybar....I agree he won't steal bases like that at higher levels unless he improves his percentage success rate, but from having seen him in the Midwest League in '03, I don't think his bat is just a Cal League illusion. ... We'll have a better idea [of his abilities] when we see him in Double-A. Right now I'd guess he's a .280+ hitter, but whether that's .280 with 3 homers and a .320 OBP, or .280 with 12 homers and a .360 OBP, remains to be seen.
4. Kendry Morales, OF-1B, B+
5. Howie Kendrick, 2B, B+
6. Jeff Mathis, C, B
7. Steve Shell, RHP, B
8. Ervin Santana, RHP, B
9. Alberto Callaspo, 2B-SS, B
10. Brandon Wood, SS, B-
11. Dustin Moseley, RHP, B-
12. Sean Rodriguez, SS, B-
13. Kevin Jepsen, RHP, B-
14. Mark Trumbo, 3B, B-
15. Mike Napoli, C, C+
16. Angel Moreno, RHP, C+
17. Bob Zimmerman, RHP, C+
18. Maicer Izturis, SS, C+
19. Warner Madrigal, OF, C+
20. Baltazar Lopez, 1B, C+

Sickels tickles us, saying the Angels have a "very strong farm system".

Same Old Towers

In the San Diego Union-Tribune:

"I was willing to overpay to get him," said Towers, who sent three players and $2.65 million – the largest cash payment to another club in his 10-year tenure as GM – to acquire Roberts from Boston. "There are going to be times that you do overpay, and as long as the player you get performs the way you hope for, it doesn't really matter. There's not a lot of leadoff hitters out there."

Roberts, 32, excites the Padres for the same reason he can thrill the fan munching popcorn in the upper deck: When on the basepaths, the 5-foot-10, 175-pounder is a sure thief.

And all this time I thought what they needed was a competent centerfielder in that cavern at Petco...

A Day In The Life Of Tommy Lasorda

Well, that's what this San Francisco Chronicle article ought to be called, anyway:

"Hey, Brad Penny!" screamed Lasorda, as a group of pitchers took sliding practice. "How bad you want it? How bad you want the Cy Young Award? How bad you want a world championship? Answer that, Brad Penny!"

Lasorda walked toward a batting cage.

"Look at Ricky Ledee!" Lasorda shouted loud enough for dozens of fans to hear. "God blessed Ricky Ledee! God put Ricky Ledee with the Dodgers! How 'bout that!"

...

"That son of a bitch [Kent] killed us," Lasorda whispered to a reporter. "I always wanted him on my team."

Old News: Choi Hoon Interview

Choi Hoon, the author of those wonderful MLB cartoons in Korean, is here interviewed by the Korea Times. Today, he adds a Mariners panel; what's Dirty Harry about to do to Edgar Martinez?

Ouch:

"My cleat stuck and it popped a little," said Gagne, baseball's premier reliever over the past three seasons. "But I'm walking on it and it didn't swell, and I was able to play catch after that."

Trainer Stan Johnston said even a mild sprain would take six weeks to heal 100 percent, but depending on MRI results Gagne's baseball activity might only be limited for "maybe a week." Gagne was examined by Dr. David Schafer, a fellow at the Kerlan-Jobe Clinic.

OT: One Of Those Idiots Reviews Galactica

The blogiverse is a darn small place, I'm convinced. A few days ago, I wrote Carol Elaine of Ordinary Goddess (hat tip to LA Blogs for finding her) about the new Battlestar Galactica. She was all all broke up, it seems, over the cancellation of Star Trek: Enterprise, marking the at-least-for-now cessation of a television landmark. Not to worry, said I, Galactica is actually better than the last five years' growth of Trek, at least. Sadly, Carol couldn't get it (something about her cable provider not picking up SciFi), but today she dropped a line pointing to this TeeVee review. Darned if it isn't Jason Snell, who also writes for Idiots Write About Sports. And so the world comes full circle...

Anyway. It'd be easy to cast the "love/hate" tag on the show, but it's more like "flawed, but still very, very good":

... [A]s unlikely as it seems, the new Battlestar Galactica series is a remarkable success. Led by the serious weight of Edward James Olmos and Mary McDonnell, and even weightier storylines, it’s a sci-fi series for adults that doesn’t shy away from dealing with big issues: God, sex, death, betrayal, obsession, self-denial ... it’s all in there.

...

This is not to say that the new Galactica isn’t without its flaws. It’s got great big ones, and they’re in plain sight. Proud to have cast a smokin’ hottie, Tricia Helfer, as a human-form Cylon agent-slash-sex kitten, Moore and company have shamelessly overused her. Speaking as a red-blooded heterosexual male, even I am tired of seeing Helfer dressed in lingerie and cooing sexily about Cylon religion. Toss in the subplot about Boomer, another female character who’s really a Cylon, and you get the distinct impression that the entire Cylon plot against humanity involves creating hot chicks and having them use their sexuality to bend human men to their will. I’m not saying that it’s a bad plan, but it reeks of sexism.

You really should go read it in toto (no, not the dog, silly); Snell not only provides a snappy, well-written review, but more thoroughly dissects (and pretty much agrees with) the things I both like and dislike about the show.

Phil Allard Interviews Charlie Steiner

Also arriving in the mail today: Phil Allard, whose analysis of the Lowe signing I took a flensing knife to last week, interviews new Dodger broadcaster Charlie Steiner. There's some good bits in here; his favorite call was the Aaron Boone home run in the 2003 ALCS, which, if I'm remembering right, ended in a "See ya" call (one of my most detested because it's so obviously bad homer, plus cheering for the Yankees -- ugh). Also, this bit:

PHIL ALLARD: You were quoted earlier this winter (and I am paraphrasing here) that you felt that the Yankees didn’t show joy when they won as much as relief. Can you elaborate on that a bit?

CHARLEY STEINER: There should be emotion of joy and euphoria, and “God, isn’t that great.” Unfortunately, with the Yanks, the prevailing attitude after a victory is one of relief, and then “God, we have to go out and do it again.’ That is the pressure that is put on them by the Steinbrenner way of doing business and you know, it’s been enormously successful for him and the Yankees. But it’s also very pressure-intensive. The Yanks were far tighter leading 3 games to 1 then the Red Sox were trailing 3 games to 1. Again, the Yanks have had an enormous amount of success doing business in that fashion for a very long time. So, to second guess them would be hypocritical.

Some time ago, I linked to an ABCnews.com piece talking about Microsoft's decline as a vigorous organization. Maybe it's a little facile, early, or wrong, but is it possible the Yanks are going the same way?

Update: Talk about a double bonus mailbag day: Allard wrote me again to let me know that the "see ya" call, while voiced by Steiner, is in fact Michael Kay's. Domini, domini, domini, may he never use it in Chavez Ravine -- or anywhere else I can hear it.

Donovan: Studs At The Plate, Duds On The Mound

John Donovan at Sports Illustrated has an AL West review that summarizes the conventional wisdom: the days of the AL West being a pitcher's haven are over, and in 2005, it's going to be a slugfest. I don't disagree; in that light, he hands the Angels the title of "best rotation" and "best bullpen", with the Rangers getting "best lineup", D-Mac for RoY, and Rich Harden as a Cy Young candidate, a vacancy PECOTA picked Kelvim Escobar for. (Incidentally, once I get a few spare hours -- this is probably a weekend project at least -- I plan on reviewing what the PECOTA tea leaves say for both the AL and NL West divisions.)

After an offseason filled with bagging on Paul DePodesta for failing to be honest about his intentions (regarding, say, signing Adrian Beltre) or motivations (why he got Lowe), and the announcement of Robb Nen's retirement (because he wasn't 100% starting midway through the 2002 season), it certainly makes you wonder about everything anybody says publically. For instance, Brendan Donnelly's comments last year after he returned.

Now it can be told: Remember all those times last season when reliever Brendan Donnelly insisted he was 100%, that he was fully recovered from the complications stemming from a broken nose and the elbow tendinitis that sidelined him until mid-June?

"There were a lot of half-truths to that because I wasn't really ready," Donnelly admits now. Manager Mike Scioscia and pitching coach Bud Black "did a good job of limiting me to situations that weren't critical. It wasn't until the end of last season that I finally felt 100%, back to normal. Now, I'm ready. Really."

"Half-truths"? Okay, okay, so now we all wonder:

• Is Anderson really healthy, or did they hire Finley for no reason?
• Is Kelvim Escobar "really close" to throwing off a mound, or they being coy about his condition yet again?
• Does Adam Kennedy's early optimistic prognosis having him take ground balls on March 1 make one day's worth of difference as to when he'll return for real?
• Just how good is Vlad's hand?
• Are Kendry Morales' continuing "visa problems" for real, or a cover for something else?

Okay, enough. Keep going, and I'll end up in the land of grassy knolls and Jimmy Hoffa lookalikes. At least they're not trying to hide Tim Salmon's infirm condition.

Sir, you are a sneak thief.

Wish I'd thought of it first.

... but only if your wife comes to the games, too.

The above was cribbed from the 2/22 spring training I gallery. More of that sort of thing (only without quite so much in the hot ballplayer wife department) is over there.

To lift an autumn hair is no sign of great strength;
  to see the sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight;
    to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear.

-- Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Barry Bonds arrived at camp yesterday, and like the unseasonably late and furious weather, all hail broke loose at his first press conference. Hemingway said Paris was a moveable feast. Barry Bonds, not quite city-sized, surely qualifies as a block or two by himself, and, with the numbskulls from the press in tow, more resembles a traveling circus. Westwood Blues has an unexpurgated translation of the original press conference transcript, but I'll leave it to you, fair reader, to tell which one is funnier, and who is grasping for something beyond retirement.

Another edition of the little column that won't quit --

Rotoworld Picks Top 10 NL West Prospects

For each organization. The Dodgers:

1. Joel Guzman SS
2. Chad Billingsley RHP
3. Edwin Jackson RHP
4. Greg Miller LHP
5. James Loney 1B
6. Chuck Tiffany LHP
7. Yhency Brazoban RHP
8. Jonathan Broxton RHP
9. Willy Aybar 2B
10. Dioner Navarro C

More Little Dot-Like Stories

• Milton Bradley wants to play center, regardless of where Drew wants to play. Given Drew's balky knees and ridiculous contract, I bet it doesn't happen.
• Jayson Werth is happy to not have to be an emergency catcher this year, and moreover, to be a starter in left. He says his arm feels "great".
• Brad Penny threw at half-speed from the mound yesterday, and plans on doing so again today.
• Vlad's hand feels just fine, taking batting practice in Arizona.
• Kendry Morales continues to have passport problems and isn't expected in camp until the end of the week. Bill Stoneman pshawed reports of other scouts' denigrating Morales' abilities:

  "Those opinions don't count," General Manager Bill Stoneman said. "From what our scouts say, the guy's a good hitter, a good player. We're happy with him."

  Juan Rivera also had visa problems getting out of Venezuela.
• Steve Finley's father-in-law, Gene Jantzen, died following heart surgery.
• On Tom Umberg's silly law requiring a disclaimer for the LAAoA:

  "It would be a longshot," said Jack Pitney, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, "because there's not that much call for this legislation outside the Anaheim city limits."

• Dioner Navarro and Steve Finley could get together on the Hard-Lessons-of-Life-Dep't: Navarro's wife Sherley nearly died of a brain aneurism:

  She lives with an artificial coil that was surgically implanted around a blood vessel in her brain. Every other year, a catheter is inserted into her groin, through her blood vessels and into her brain to make sure the coil is holding up. She lives with the 70-pound weight gain, the result of the steroids prescribed to her by doctors.

  Ouch.

Eric Karros In ESPN Broadcast Booth

Eric Karros has signed a contract with ESPN to work "up to 40 games" this season.

"I guess this makes me officially retired," said Karros, 37, who set the all-time Los Angeles Dodgers home run record with 270 over 12 seasons, from 1991 to 2002. "I'm looking forward to staying involved in the game, and this will provide an exciting forum."

So long as he's not covering the Dodgers, that's fine.

Jay Jaffe, who somehow seems to have inherited the Dodger job over at Baseball Prospectus, feeds us the following interesting tidbits:

• Clay Davenport translated the 2004 season of Japanese pickup 3B Norihiro Nakamura to a major league .261/.376/.379. Given that he'll be taking a 90% pay cut (and probably more if the U.S. dollar continues its slide against the yen), "Nakamura could be a handy pickup."
• Paul Bako looks to be a "portable vortex of suck" in the lineup. Jaffe likes David Ross to improve (~10 VORP), but also notes news reports indicating the Rockies are ready to trade or release Charles Johnson after spring training. Johnson, a former Dodger, rejected a trade back to Los Angeles at the deadline last year. If released, whoever picks him up will only have to pay league minimum. PECOTA projects him to a 9.0 VORP season, and that's in Colorado.

Rany Jazyleri ranks the top 50 prospects in baseball for 2005, in Baseball Prospectus (subscription required, duh). For the teams this fine blog covers:

4. Dallas McPherson, 3B, Anaheim
5. Casey Kotchman, 1B, Anaheim
7. Joel Guzman, SS, Los Angeles
20. Chad Billingsley, RHP, Los Angeles
34. Willy Aybar, 2B, Los Angeles
45. Edwin Jackson, RHP, Los Angeles

Once again, the Angels' failure to develop pitchers is starting to catch up to them, and this deficiency is becoming more and more glaring. Also, I wonder whether the absence of some of the Angels' highly-touted middle-infielders isn't part of the motivation to sign Cabrera.

State Lawmaker Doesn't Like LAAoA, Either

The Times has a story today about Tom Umberg's attempt to force Anaheim back on the front of the Angels' name:

Attention: The Angels play their home games in Anaheim, not Los Angeles.

That's the type of warning a state legislator wants the Angels to put on their tickets and advertisements. Assemblyman Tom Umberg (D-Santa Ana) says he will introduce the "Truth in Sports Advertising Act" today in Sacramento, contending that owner Arte Moreno is misleading fans when he calls his team the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

As if nobody could use a Thomas Guide.

Negotiations... Weaver... Zzzz

A year ago, I was snoring over Jered Weaver's record. Now, it's the same buzzsaw over reports that the Angels have "heated up" talks with Weaver.

"We're close, and I'm optimistic we'll get something done soon," Weaver told the Long Beach Press-Telegram Sunday. "I've been anxious to get going."

Of course, Rich has more on this.

The Last, Long Goodnight Of The Santo-Williams Cubs

The Hardball Times has been running a Steve Treder-penned series on the 60's/early 70's Santo-Williams Cubs, in three parts. Part 1 of the series covers 1961-1965, part 2 runs from 1966-1969, including the heartbreak year 1969, and part 3, from 1970-1973, details the twilight of excellence. Treder makes the interesting observation that while 1969 is widely remembered by Cubs fans as the team that shoulda, woulda, coulda made it if it wasn't for those meddling Mets, in fact the 1970 team was the team that had no excuses. The competition was weaker, and in fact they underperformed their Pythagorean projections by ten games (84-78 vs a projected 94-68). Good reading while waiting for real spring training games to start.

Rich Lederer of Rich's Weekend Baseball Beat and Bryan Smith of Wait Til Next Year, two all-baseball.com-hosted blogs, are moving to new digs at Baseball Analysts. From the press release:

Richard Lederer and Bryan Smith have joined forces and created Baseball Analysts (http://www.baseballanalysts.com), an online site devoted to examining the game's past, present, and future. Baseball Analysts will fully integrate Rich's Weekend Baseball Beat and Wait Til Next Year. The new site will feature full-length articles, interviews, and roundtable discussions daily, plus guest columnists weekly.

Lederer will write his columns under the name Baseball Beat, while Smith will use WTNY. The topics of discussion will include college, minor league, and major league baseball. Lederer and Smith will generally write individual columns as in the past, but they will also collaborate on articles and with others on several new features to offer a unique online magazine.

Tuesday's launch includes a column, "Who Was Your Favorite Player Growing Up?" This is the first of a three-part special, featuring 38 well-known baseball writers, analysts, and baseball executives. Next week will feature a multi-part series, entitled "Breakfast With Bill James." Lederer spent two hours with James at the Winter Meetings in December and this exclusive interview is the culmination of RichÇs Abstracts From The Abstracts series.

For more information, contact:

Richard Lederer
ralederer@baseballanalysts.com

Bryan Smith
bryansmith@baseballanalysts.com

Sidebar links to be changed accordingly. Best of luck, gentlemen.

It was nice and easy, and that's the way it'll be for a little while until I feel ready. It feels good now. I've got to get a little stronger.

-- Brad Penny, on how his arm feels

I have to stay through the ball on the outer half. I think the communication with Tim, we're on the same page this year. Now I know what he means by what he says. He's simplified it and I understand it better.

-- David Ross

It's tough to be here and to know that the rest of the guys are going to leave [to start the season] without me. It'll be tough mentally. But that's the way it is. ... We'll just have to wait and let my knee tell me when I'm ready.

-- Adam Kennedy

This clubhouse is a lot different. Our clubhouse in Oakland was more of a frat house, and here it's all business. I guess that's why the Braves have been as successful as they've been.

-- Tim Hudson, failing to observe the other similarities between the two clubs

I cannot lie. It feels really weird just to have the black and the orange. I've been wearing the blue and red for about 11 years. When people say black makes you look skinnier, I think they're right.

-- Omar Vizquel, on the benefits of wearing a Giants uniform

I'm definitely not the new face of this organization, that's for sure.

-- Nomar Garciaparra, noting the staying power of Cubs franchise players

I approach things differently now. I definitely see this as a life-changing experience. ... You sit in a restaurant, you're always looking around. I'm looking over my shoulder because you never know what can happen. You pay more attention to the little things.

-- Sidney Ponson, on whether he should hit judges in front of or away from the cops

Don Newcombe was one. So, too, Al Downing, Jim "Mudcat" Grant, and Bob Gibson. They were the Black Aces, black men who won twenty games in the show, men who won games for major league teams that were suspicious of putting African-Americans on the mound for spurious reasons. Pitching, more than any other position on the field, requires intelligence and psychology -- and many managers and executives within baseball thought that blacks couldn't hack it.

Nearly 70, Mudcat Grant is trying to get some immortality for men like himself; working with authors Pat O'Brien and Tom Sabellico, they're compiling a book entitled, The Twelve Black Aces, to be published around the World Series this year. Twelve: that's all who've won 20 games in a single year. Grant, who lives in Los Angeles, also hopes to make a museum in Florida commemorating African-American pitchers, to be completed in 2007. Good luck to him.

Update 2/22: Jim "Mudcat" Grant has his own web page, with a discussion of the Twelve.

Chagrined

After spending column space Thursday raving about Firefox, I now have to be a little chagrined, because just after I wrote that, I started getting barraged by more popup ads. Wuzza? Turns out the sneaky popup advertisers have struck again, and have started taking advantage of certain loopholes. Slashdot caught hold of this yesterday; there appear to be two main issues that I'll discuss in the next section. Non-geeks can safely skip ahead without harm; I'll get to the actual fixing of things in a bit.

The Two Vulnerabilities

First, a little background on how popups and popunders work. Most of the time, these are simply requests run with a given page's onload event, attached to the body. Early popup blocking technology, therefore, focused primarily on that interaction, and it was generally successful. However, some requests to create new external windows are legitimate, and so blocking popups wasn't quite as straightforward. In general, the modern popup/under blocking strategy is to deny popups except in cases where the user has specifically clicked something.

This, too, has its problems. Consider this Javascript, kindly provided in the aforementioned Slashdot thread. (You can see this in action here.)

<html>
<head>
<title>Test Page</title>
<script type="text/javascript">
function goLink(t1, t2){
  window.open(t1, "pop1", "name=a1,width=400,height=400,left=10,top=10");
  window.open(t1, "pop2", "name=a2,width=400,height=400,left=40,top=40");
  window.open(t1, "pop3", "name=a3,width=400,height=400,left=70,top=70");
  window.open(t1, "pop4", "name=a4,width=400,height=400,left=100,top=100");
  window.open(t1, "pop5", "name=a5,width=400,height=400,left=130,top=130");
  window.location = t2;
}
</script>
</head>
<body>

<A HREF="javascript:goLink('http://www.google.com',
            'http://www.google.com')">Go To Google.com</A>
</body>
</html>

The other issue -- and a far more pernicious one -- seems to be Javascript DOM crawling. The DOM -- the Document Object Model -- describes how the guts of a webpage are supposed to be rendered. Internal to that are the events that can cause popups and popunders. Even if a link doesn't have an onclick event attached to it, a DOM crawler can create one and execute it when you link out -- thereby bypassing popup blocking. (Thanks to this link for the info.)

Of course, another cause of popups/unders is spyware; for that you need to use AdAware, but if you've already got malware on your machine, you may have to do what I ended up doing and reinstall Windows -- or better still, ditch your Microsoft desktop and go to Linux.

Needless to say, this sudden burst of success has gotten the advertisers going all Pavlovian again. Paypop, one of the earliest agencies to discover DOM crawling, has this to say on their FAQ page:

Q. I am also tracking the stats myself, why there is count discrepancy?
A. Generally, there are some factors that may affect the counting: 1. Internet surfer's connection speed. 2. How the publisher setup their codes. 3. Network issues 4. Pop killer/blocker for popunders. However, popunder's count discrepancy is usually about 15%-35% (due to pop blockers, we have already by passed windows SP2, google toolbar,MSN and norton internet security,Gecko/Firefox,Netscape,Opera), in-page banner is about 5%-10%, and popin banner/interstitial is about 7-15%. If you are seeing a count discrepancy greater than 25%, please contact our publisher support immediately because that is un-normal.

...

Q. Can your popunder code by pass pop blockers?
A. Yes, our system is capable of bypassing SP2 and most of the pop-up blocker out there. However there are still some new pop-up blockers that we may not recognize, please inform us those pop-up blockers so we can improve our system.

They're out there, they're selling it, and they're mean. (Thanks to this Mozillazine thread for that link.) They know they're being antisocial jerks, they don't care, and they want to make money by annoying you. How rotten is that?

What To Do?

So at this moment, the bottom line is that Firefox's anti-popup blocking tech is a little behind the times. I don't expect it to stay that way for long; if anything, Firefox is much more user-driven than IE. Until DOM crawling can be shut down, here's some things you can do:

• Use Adblock to prohibit loading of Javascript from known popunder sellers. You can build a list of these on an ad-hoc basis (i.e., as you find offenders), or you can rely on other peoples' lists. Here's one at process-of-elimination.net; and another at geocities.net. This can be a lot of work, though, and while it works for me (this is for now how I've chosen to deal with popups), like spam, it's obviously puts you in the position of fighting a war of attrition with people with a commercial motivation. Question: do you have more or less spam in your inbox than five years ago? I thought so.
• Use Firefox prefs to eliminate non-whitelisted popup events. In the Slashdot thread mentioned above, this user provides a method to do this:

  1) Type about:config in the URL bar
  2) find dom.popup_allowed_events
  3) change the value to the empty string

  Now no events allow popups by default. That means if you want to let a site pop up a window from Javascript you will have to whitelist it.

  Of course, this means non-malicious popups will get axed, too, but it will defeat the bad guys.
• Use AdAware to lose malware. As mentioned above, a lot of popups come from malware such as Claria's Gator, which take over your PC by using sneaky shrinkwrap licenses and tricky installation dialogues. That Claria has had to change their name (they used to be called Gator) and sued PC Pitstop to get them to stop calling their "product" spyware should tell you just how low these guys are. (Disclosure: my employer at one time took legal action against then-Gator because of their activities against our site, which included redirecting users to our online competition.) Of course, ditching Microsoft wholesale and running Linux can also get rid of all malware.

As they say on Slashdot, Hope That Helps.

Labels: tech

Amy Finley Hit By Line Drive, Gives Birth Prematurely: Steve Finley's wife, Amy, was hit in the face by a line drive during her son's Little League game. Mrs. Finley, pregnant with the couple's fifth child, suffered a broken nose, and when physicians couldn't staunch the bleeding, induced labor 3 1/2 weeks before her due date. She was hospitalized for ten days; the child is in good condition.

Finley on the end of his association with the Dodgers:

Finley said he was told by Dodger General Manager Paul DePodesta after the trade that "if I did the job, they'd have every intention of keeping me." Finley hit .263 with 13 homers and 46 RBIs in 58 games, including a walk-off grand slam in the division-clinching win over the San Francisco Giants on Oct. 2.

"I did what I was supposed to do, and I never got a call the whole off-season, save for two to ask if I was interested in moving to a corner outfield position," Finley said. "I didn't give an answer. I didn't feel one was deserved.

"That was the only sour thing about the Dodgers. I like honesty. I like doing business the right way, and I didn't feel that was doing business the right way. But they have a business to run. It doesn't have to be fair."

Scioscia changes his tune about the batting order:

Manager Mike Scioscia said he's leaning toward a lineup with Chone Figgins leading off and Darin Erstad batting second. Guerrero, Anderson and Finley probably will bat third, fourth and fifth, followed by shortstop Orlando Cabrera.

The bottom of the order will be filled by rookie third baseman Dallas McPherson, catcher Bengie Molina and the designated hitter, with some possible adjustments — such as Cabrera in the two-hole — against left-handed starters.

Here's an interesting story about Cuban defector Kendry Morales and his Canadian agent, John Di Manno, in the New York Times. If Morales is new to all this free-market, free-agency stuff, well, so is Di Manno, for whom Morales is his first-ever client:

Di Manno apparently wants to be a baseball agent. For several years he had been trying to hook up with a top Cuban player willing to defect to the United States. There were some false starts -- like the time, according to another agent, Di Manno pursued a promising pitcher only to lose him to that agent. But finally, in Morales, Di Manno had found his man.

''In this business, it's all about landing the right guy,'' Di Manno said. ''That one big client that can lead to more opportunities down the road, many more opportunities.''

He spent months winning Morales's confidence, meeting with him in Cuba, phoning him from Canada, dangling before him all the dollar signs available in the major leagues. When Morales finally defected, last June, Di Manno was waiting for him in Miami. Morales signed a personal-services contract binding the two men even though Di Manno was not yet an agent certified by Major League Baseball and had never represented another athlete.

I flew to the Dominican Republic with as many questions about Di Manno as scouts had about Morales. Scouts wondered if Morales could field, or hit major-league pitching. I wondered if Di Manno was a shark, a hustler holding undue influence over a 21-year-old new to a free market system. After a few days in the company of both men, however, I wondered who exactly was the savvy businessman and who had just stepped off the boat.

So, how did the Angels pick up this guy? The answer seems to be that a bunch of other teams -- the Yankees, the Marlins, Detroit, Seattle -- all passed.

'I think the guy has the chance to be an average offensive player in the major leagues,'' said a scouting director for one of the few teams that expressed sustained interest in Morales. (He asked not to be identified because he didn't want to poison any future dealings with the Angels, Morales or Di Manno.) ''And that remains to be seen. He's an average player to be sure.''

We'll get a good idea of just how good Morales is presently. And, Di Manno will know soon, too, just whether he'll get to stay in the sports management business.

Robb Nen Retires

Former Giants closer Robb Nen has retired. Nen was pitching injured in 2002 in Game 6 of the World Series when Troy Glaus hit the game-winning double off him.

Though the Giants kept it under wraps at the time, he suffered a 30 percent tear of his rotator cuff in 2002 and said he was told there was a 50-50 chance he could do career-ending damage.

In consultation with Conte - Nen had the final decision - the pitcher finished his final season more on guile than on power. But it was enough. In nine playoff innings in 2002, he allowed one run, struck out eight and walked three.

The Giants took unusual measures to conceal Nen's injury. During home games that postseason, the stadium's scoreboard radar gun not-so-mysteriously stopped working when Nen took the mound. It was a transparent ploy to prevent opponents from seeing how much the pitcher's fastball had faded.

Nen is the Giants' all-time leader in saves.

OT: Live From New York... It's Thirty Years Of SNL!

I remember being about 13, and the show was in its second season. Maybe the first half hour was bust-your-gut funny, the last 30 minutes dragged with material you didn't get. The ads were always worth waiting for. Friends insisted the whole thing was way cool, and as a result, Saturday Night Live spawned an entire list of peer pressure jokes: sketches that weren't really funny, but all your friends thought were, so you had to, too.

I guess I'm smarter than that now, because I actually only remember to laugh at stuff I think is actually funny.

Anyway: that SNL was unique, groundbreaking, and scathingly funny when it first aired in 1975 shouldn't be received as a surprise, but what is surprising is the characterization of the early seasons of the show as "sweet" in this Times story about "Live From New York: The First 5 Years of Saturday Night Live", a retrospective due to air tonight at 9 pm on NBC.

The Bees, the Nerds, the Wild and Crazy Guys, Gilda Radner's brilliant "Judy Miller Show," even John Belushi's Samurai, all have that quality.

And it all seems funnier than it did, say, 10 years ago.

The discovery that SNL wasn't all that funny was a big one for me; but then, what it really amounted to was discovering that I had my own tastes.

Urbina's Mom Back

Ugueth Urbina's mother, kidnapped last year, has been returned. That is one unwell country.

Due to shoulder trouble, Brad Penny may not throw a single spring training game, according to the Vero Beach Press-Journal. While spring training hasn't been ruled out, the plan is to get Penny throwing by April 5.

Uh oh.

Aisle sign, Fry's Electronics, Fountain Valley, CA store

Everybody knows Jackie Robinson, of course, and why he was important; it's what they teach in school. Larry Doby, being the first black man in the American League, held a different kind of distinction, similar to the forgotten astronauts following Apollo 11's Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong. Cleveland fans with any sense of history remember him as the most valuable Indian of the early/mid-50's teams, but as with the Apollo program's Charles Conrad, Jr., for most people he also represents the first of the forgotten.

Jackie Robinson proved that blacks could play baseball, yet teams of the post-Robinson era simultaneously felt that, while they couldn't exclude blacks from play, neither could they have too many. Boston was probably the worst offender in that count; at one point, a Boston scout

decided that it wasn't worth waiting through a stretch of rainy weather to scout any black player. That decision killed the possibility that Mays and Ted Williams might have played in the same outfield for the Red Sox.

And so was "the curse" actually born, not of any voodoo about the Babe or suchlike, but stubborn refusal to join the postwar revolution. The sentiment was unfortunately common, even among teams that weren't owned by men like Sam Yawkey. Not even the Dodgers were completely free of the clouded thinking that prevented them from using all their resources to win. In the 1955 season, a 19-year-old Sandy Koufax came up to "replace perennial borderline prospect Tommy Lasorda," writes Glenn Stout in The Dodgers: 120 Years of Dodger Baseball.

For the most part, [Koufax] kept his mouth shut and gave the veterans on the club a wide berth, doing little more than pitching batting practice. He was ostracized by his age, his status, and his Jewish background. Alston barely acknowledged his presence. Koufax later described his experience in 1955 as being "with the team, not of it."

Yet Koufax had the most precious commodity in all baseball, a really fast fastball. His gift was from the gods, for his left arm could throw a baseball nearly 100 miles per hour... Other pitchers learn to survive with guile and trickery, but the pitcher with the phenominal fastball needs to learn only how to control the gift, to throw the ball where he wants to.

So, here was this Jewish Thor -- idle! -- in 1955. Alston would set his starts weeks apart; the inadequate playing time would retard Koufax's craft for years. Present-day fans of affirmative action might miss the irony that in those days, the point of quotas was exclusion; no more than nine black players were allowed on a team. More than that, and it "might reflect badly" on the organization. Thus did the Dodgers quietly allow Roberto Clemente to go unprotected in 1954. In today's Times, former Dodgers, Angels, and Padres GM Buzzie Bavasi talks about this surprising and ignoble footnote in Dodger history:

Bavasi said he [regretted] his inability to protect Roberto Clemente on the Dodgers' major league roster in the Rule 5 draft of 1954, and that it was basically a racial decision by a club that had broken baseball's color barrier with the signing of Robinson. Bavasi said two O'Malley partners, Jim Mulvey, then president of United Artists Studio, and John Smith, chairman of Pfizer, were reluctant to put more minorities on the club. Clemente would have brought the club's minority representation to 40%.

"Mulvey and Smith operated companies that had a lower minority ratio," Bavasi said. "They felt that if the Dodgers went to 40% it would have reflected badly on their own companies."

Clemente, who had played only one season in the Dodger minor-league system, was selected by the Pittsburgh Pirates, whose general manager was former Dodger general manager Branch Rickey. He might have upheld a private arrangement with Bavasi to allow Clemente to slide through, according to Bavasi, if Rickey and O'Malley had not engaged in a heated argument during a National League meeting before the draft.

Clemente, of course, went on to produce a Hall of Fame career, and the Dodgers could only grieve.

"We would have won four more pennants," said Bavasi, still pained by the would-haves, the regrets, but insistent that his passion for the game and love of talking about it remain stronger than ever.

There are none so blind. Signing Jackie Robinson didn't give the Dodgers a free pass on race matters; winning matters, and accomplishing it means looking beyond the superficial. If, in these quarters, sabermetricists are sometimes lampooned as jumping through too many hoops to come to their obscure conclusions, at least we may know this: following their methods, the likelihood of making such a gaffe is less likely, provided we follow the numbers wherever they may lead. Losing Clemente was no small thing, as the post-Koufax Dodgers desperately needed sluggers, and he reliably turned in OPS+ numbers exceeding 100 throughout his career. Surely, racism -- like all shallow thinking -- is the province of losers.

Like I said. Make sure you have those business terms nailed down; it could all end in tears.

I had the strangest dream, and you, and you, and you were in it!

-- Dorothy, The Wizard of Oz

Was it really all just a dream? The real reason there's about to be a hockey season again -- attenuated though it may be -- is the threat the players would have to learn to hit a fastball in the Canadian leagues. If there's one thing a hockey player hates, it's a fight without bruisers on the ice...

Blogger finally admits to what we already knew, namely that it's damn slow lately. Hopefully the solutions they talk about will also improve commenting performance, but so far, no banana, and logging out of their server and back into another one doesn't seem to be especially helpful, either. Friends, if I could move this blog elsewhere without having to pay an inordinate amount of money to do so, I would. Any suggestions can be e-mailed to the address on the sidebar. Thanks.

That's the kind of question Tommy Lasorda has to be asking himself right about now after being promoted to "special advisor" to Frank McCourt. Since neither Frank nor Tommy are around, I'll just have to deconstruct this press release myself...

"Having devoted more than half a century to the Dodgers as a player, scout, coach, manager and executive, Tommy Lasorda represents an incredible resource of information and perspective for this organization," McCourt said.

Sure, Lasorda was there for the high points -- the great teams of the late 70's and early 80's, and the unbelievable title year in '88 -- but he also was substantially less than the public image he carefully crafted for himself. He also had a hand in the worst trade in modern Dodger history, and was criminally negligent in his comprehension of contract provisions as a GM. As much as the guy is beloved by a wide spectrum of Dodger fans, it's long past time the club put him out to pasture where he can do even less damage than he could as a vice president.

"His name is synonymous with Dodger baseball and he is recognized around the world as one of the sport's most notable goodwill ambassadors. We will utilize his incomparable talents and keen mind on many varied projects."

... such as figuring out what's for lunch.

Lasorda's current responsibilities include scouting

... for lasagna ...

evaluating and teaching minor league players

"Write this down: 'We gotta play it one day at a time.'"

acting as an advisor and ambassador for the Dodgers' international affiliations

"Do I hafta go down to the Dominican again? You know how much I hate guns and diarrhea!"

representing the franchise at more than 100 speaking engagements and appearances before various charities, private groups and military personnel each year.

Something he can still handle.

Seriously, this sounds for all the world like the Japanese tradition of putting unfirable executives into a corner office with a nice title, and letting them silently disappear from view. If, paraphrasing DePodesta, the organization needed a kick in the pants, the last thing they'll do is listen to one of the guys who helped them into their decrepit state.

The Wanderer

Oh well I’m the type of guy who will never settle down
Where pretty girls are well, you know that I’m around
I kiss ’em and I love’em ’cause to me they’re all the same
I hug ’em and I squeeze ’em they don’t even know my name
They call me the wanderer yeah the wanderer
I roam around around around...

Bill Shaikin's piece today in the Times, "Moreno Has More Big Ideas in Mind" announced Arte's not a little unhappy with Anaheim's unexpected persistence in pursuing a lawsuit to force the Angels to stay an Anaheim team.

Although Moreno said Thursday he remains committed to Anaheim, he also said he has been contacted by representatives of other locations interested in luring the Angels.

"Yes, people talk to us," Moreno said. "Obviously, we're in a lawsuit with the city of Anaheim. Why wouldn't everybody else around start thinking that we're in an old stadium and we're not happy?"

Angel Stadium opened in 1966, with a $118-million renovation completed in 1998. The Angels' lease extends through 2029, but they can terminate the agreement in 2016 by paying an estimated $12-million fee.

Moreno, asked whether the lawsuit might prompt him to consider searching for a new stadium and a way out of Anaheim before 2016, refused to comment.

Disney and the Angels put $118M into the stadium in 1996, and after Arte put in new state-of-the-art scoreboards; is that an "old stadium"? Maybe other people think that, but I can hardly imagine cities flocking to the Angels. Instead, if I were some other city thinking about acquiring a baseball team -- say, Las Vegas -- I'd wonder about an owner who's so quick to break the team's lease in spirit if not in the legal letter. But that's okay; it's all a big experiment, you see, and Arte doesn't quite know where all this LAAoA stuff will end up:

Moreno said that changing the name from Anaheim Angels should help broaden the team's appeal and generate more revenue by reminding broadcasters and advertisers the team plays in the second-largest media market in the country, although he acknowledged he does not yet have "hard evidence" to back up his theory.

I wonder: he's certainly got people laughing, but I'm pretty sure that wasn't the impression he had hoped to leave behind. But maybe he figures after the season starts, it won't matter what city the homeless Angels call home; after all, you can get better deals for yourself if you're the one writing the checks.

Overcoming A "Little League" Deal

So it turns out: now we have talk of Arte buying a TV station, or possibly starting a cable network. I've long thought this was the way to go; so has Arte. The public denunciations begin:

He described the Angels' current media deals as "a Little League media package," claiming the Milwaukee Brewers have a better television deal than the Angels and that the Seattle Mariners make three times as much in radio revenue.

With Channel 9 dropping the Angels in favor of the Dodgers next season, he said the team could buy a television station or join with a cable or satellite company in starting one.

He noted the Mets, who have partnered with Comcast and Time Warner on a channel to debut next year, signed Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez over the winter. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, the teams that generate the most revenue in the major leagues, each operate a cable channel.

"If you're not looking at what the Yankees and Boston are doing, and now what the Mets are doing, and the Cubs and Braves with superstations, then you've got your head in the sand," Moreno said.

"[A] Little League deal"? Yeah, probably. And I have no doubt but that owning a cable network will leapfrog Arte over the Dodgers in terms of revenue. Noting that the team has increased revenue by 50% in the time the club has been under his ownership, tripling ad revenues, the Yankees now "only" have twice the Angels' revenues.

That's huge.

Folks, if you want to know why Oakland and even Seattle sometimes look down here with green eyes, that's it in a nutshell. Baseball is a sport and a business; the best clubs, like the Yankees, Red Sox, and historically, the Dodgers, do both well. I've never been opposed to fixing the historic mismanagement the Angels suffered from, even if it means our opponents -- and face it, many of the fans -- will alternately cringe and chuckle when contorting their way through the LAAoA quagmire. But if it means the Angels can sign high-dollar-value prospects like Jered Weaver, if it means the Angels have the means to pick up a Vlad Guerrero or two in the offseason, so be it.

Whatevs, boys, whatevs, just get the deed done with so Rich and everyone else can all go back throwing things at the BBWAA for not inducting Bert Blyleven into the Hall of Fame.

In other notes:

• Benjie's dropped 20 pounds, which is a good start, but it could just mean he's stopped weighing himself after meals.
• K-Rod hasn't shown up in camp yet -- something about visa troubles again.

Update: How's this for cherry-picking stats? In this MLB.com article about the top ten Angels to pick in fantasy leagues:

In Cabrera's last three even-numbered seasons, he has averaged .256 with 10 homers, 58 RBIs, 62 runs and 15 steals. However, in his last two odd-numbered seasons, he has averaged .287 with 15 homers, 88 RBIs, 80 runs and 22 steals. Combine that odd/even trend with a strong finish in 2004 and a lucrative free agent contract from the Angels, and Cabrera heads into 2005 primed for a big season.

How about, he had one good season and a bunch of mediocre-to-lousy ones?

Take nothing away from Studes, Tangotiger, MGL, or Bill James; like the clock that keeps ticking, statheads keep coming out with new and interesting ways of assigning value to players. Unixphiles will immediately recognize in the title of this entry (YADM: Yet Another Defensive Metric) its kernel, and the acronym du jour is DRA, short for Defensive Regression Analysis. What makes Michael Humphreys' work so interesting is that he makes the claim that he only needs standard box score data to make his statistic go, unlike specialized and hard-to-get data needed for Zone Rating, UZR, and others. I haven't read all three parts yet (for simplicity, the original work can be found in part 1, part 2, part 3, the original BTF PDF, and this most recent series on The Hardball Times in part 1, part 2, and part 3), but that alone makes it look very, very appealing.

Now That's Comedy

John Manuel, in his Giants prospect chat:

Q:	Grant from McCovey Chronicles asks: Can you say something bad about the Dodgers system to play to your audience?
A:	John Manuel: It's the second-best farm system in the Southland; the Angels have better hitters. But that's about it.

Heh. The Baseball America Prospect Handbook is at the printers, and should be on the bookstores' shelves in early March. I can't wait.

OT: The Trouble With Elections

Thanks to Big Action (newly added to the LA Blogs blogroll, an invaluable and fun resource) for passing on this OC Weekly link about Steve Rocco. Rocco, who won an election to the Orange school board, has proved correct the Mark Twain homily that "In the first place, God made idiots. That was for practice. Then he made school boards." Having been duly sworn in, the previously unknown Rocco immediately started spouting off about the conspiracy to keep him down, &c, and so he has a traveling circus wherever he goes, and a permanent spot in the Weekly's County page.

So with Iraq; having won the elections handily, the Shiites take the reins, and proceed to install their own Ayatollah, not unlike their neighbors across the Shatt al-Arab waterway. Americans are sent to die to crush one Axis of Evil member so that it can become just like the one next door. Hmm. If we're going to take over other countries, the least we can do is to leave behind a temporarily friendly government, but the Bush administration is so grossly incompetent that it can't even be bothered to get that right.

Tech Rant: Watch Your Step, Bill

I've been meaning to past together a few things about Microsoft here lately; the pickings have improved of late, especially since I've completely ditched my Microsoft desktop and gone all Linux. Early last summer, my PC developed a virus and could not be started, nor could any of the data on it be salvaged. As a result, I swore off Microsoft products and went with an all-Linux computer.

The difference has been a breath of fresh air.

Firefox runs fast, is reliable, doesn't get viruses, has popup blocking, and is extensible in nifty ways. For one, the Adblock extension, which allows me to avoid looking at any ads if I so choose, including Flash ads. For another, the BugMeNot extension, which lets me use the BugMeNot database of anonymously generated logins; it keeps me from having to fill out form after form for various online newspaper ads.

The OpenOffice Calc that ships with Fedora Cora 3 is fast and compatible with Microsoft's Excel. Likewise, OpenOffice Writer understands Word documents. My work PC is stable, doesn't get viruses, and I get more work done.

Microsoft should be scared. Firefox now comprises a little under 5% of total browser usage, but I suspect that number is woefully underreported; earlier, Instapundit reported numbers of about 20%, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 30% by the end of the year if not sooner. I'm not sure they're learning anything, though, as security continues to be a problem for Redmond. That they have decided to view even this threat as a kind of limited business opportunity exposes just how shallow their thinking is. Indeed, they're still at it with the Windows is more secure than Linux trope, something that got whupped but good on Slashdot. Microsoft says that Linux has more patches than Windows, and this therefore proves penguin-powered PCs are less secure. Nonsense:

• Microsoft bundles patches into service packs. This is good in a sense if you're maintaining a bunch of PCs -- it means fewer patches to manage -- but it also means active exploits stay active longer.
• More patches is misleading because fewer of them are critical patches, a fact that a search through the CERT vulnerability database will quickly ascertain (use keywords "linux and critical" and "windows and critical").

One argument frequently used against Linux by Microsoft devotees is that because Linux is a small segment of the installed base, it necessarily has fewer exploits. Hackers will follow the Willie Sutton Principle and go to the OS with the most machines. There is a kernel of truth to this, but only a kernel, because the other part of this is that hackers will go where the pickings are easiest. Microsoft has gone so far to make their software easy to use that they have neglected -- and indeed, discouraged -- security. The falsity of the assertion that Linux -- and more generally, open source software -- is safe only because of installed base size is shown by Apache, which has 70% of all web servers, but has only a tiny number of breakins. The Honeynet Project (PDF) proved just that recently when it ran twelve Linux-based honeynets (unpatched machines designed to attract hackers) sited around the globe in 2004. The Project reported a mean time to breach of three months. Unpatched Windows systems similarly attached (based on research done by Symantec, Internet Storm Center, and USA Today) have revealed mean time-to-breach measured in minutes, and even then, of the 24 honeypot Linux boxes installed in this study, a mere four were ever broken into.

The anti-security measures taken included using easy-to-guess passwords.

Watch your step, Bill. There's a penguin stalking you. Never mind the funny smell -- probably just means you need a shower.

Labels: tech

I seem to recall one of my earliest and most successful posts (successful being measured by hits and outside links) last year being this ranking of the Dodgers rotation in light of the widely expected assumption that Hideo Nomo would turn out to be pumpkin instead of the staff ace he was in 2003. But not even PECOTA foresaw the depths that Nomo would plumb; he was one of the two worst starters in the majors by VORP (-23.2), and started in three times as many games as the worst pitcher in the majors, Denny Stark, who accomplished his staggeringly bad -26.3 VORP in a scant six starts. (Interestingly, Dodger fans, you might notice one of Nomo's near neighbors here is Derek Lowe, with an -11.5 VORP.) Let's revisit that exercise again this year, only this time, instead of just IP, K/9, K/BB, and VORP, we'll add dERA to the mix, too. As with last year, I'm not going to consider Jackson, who still hasn't pitched enough major league innings to be really projectable.

Notes:

• Starters are listed in alpha order by last name.
• I ignore Jackson for the same reasons I did most of last year; he's just too young to project with any accuracy.
• I use Jay Jaffe's DIPS (dERA) numbers, as his are the only ones providing any kind of historical data.

Kazuhisa Ishii

Year	IP	ERA	K/9	K/BB	G/F	dERA	VORP
2002	154	4.27	8.36	1.35	1.04	5.01	12.1
2003	147	3.86	8.57	1.39	0.85	4.66	21.0
2004	172	4.71	5.18	1.01	0.64	5.42	13.2

2005 PECOTA projection: 5.04 ERA, 123.1 IP, 2.7 VORP

Ishii's fall from whatever grace he had merely put an exclamation point on what appears to be a fizzling career in the U.S. majors. That he is still with the Dodgers is testament to either (a) the fact that DePodesta is not the miracle worker Billy Beane is, or (b) that not even Beane could move Terrence Long before he became a free agent this year. Some players are simply untradeable, and if there was a moment to trade Ishii, it's long past. His declining K/9 rate in conjunction with his usual second-half meltdown caused Dodger fans long ago to vote him off Mound Island. The paranoid might be tempted to speculate that Norihiro Nakamura was acquired, not so much as a realistic option at third, as somebody to keep Kaz from getting lonely.

Derek Lowe

Year	IP	ERA	K/9	K/BB	G/F	dERA	VORP
1997	69.0	6.13	6.78	2.26	1.75		-1.7
1998	123.0	4.02	5.63	1.83	4.58		21.2
1999	109.1	2.63	6.59	3.20	3.17		47.2
2000	91.1	2.56	7.79	3.59	3.45		42.1
2001	91.2	3.54	8.05	2.83	3.57		22.8
2002	219.2	2.58	5.2	2.65	3.46	3.70	-3.7
2003	203.1	4.47	4.87	1.53	3.92	4.46	24.7
2004	182.2	5.42	5.17	1.48	2.87	4.40	-11.5

2005 PECOTA projection: 148.0 IP, 4.01 ERA, 17.6 VORP

Lowe's clearly getting paid for some combination of his phenominal 1999-2000 years, as well as Paul DePodesta's failure to correctly predict the bull market in 2004/2005 free agents. Even though Lowe is a groundball pitcher, radical changes in the Dodgers' infield make his future harder to predict (though the change might not be as bad as some think, a topic for another day). Nonetheless, PECOTA is clearly skeptical about him, not even putting him at two wins above replacement. His strikeout rate and control have seen better days, and begin to approach the red alert levels Ishii has descended to. It's reasonable to expect better things from Lowe in the NL, but it is best to remember, when praying for miracles, that God often replies, "No."

Update: Immediately after I wrote that, Jon linked to Tom Meagher's second big piece in a week at Hardball Times, this time digging pretty deeply at Dodger Stadium's park effects. He finds, unsurprisingly, that regressed to Dodger Stadium's new peculiarities, Lowe should have been an 11 RAA pitcher in 2004, enough, he claims, to be worth the contract he's been given. Is it convincing? I don't know. I have two nits to pick with Meagher's analysis:

• I would feel a lot more comfortable if he used plate appearances in the denominator of $L, $K, etc.
• If, as he claims, Dodger Stadium hurts flyball pitchers, please explain the decline of the healthy Chan Ho Park into craptacularity in Arlington.

Jon also refers to (but doesn't actually link to) this Phil Allard piece claiming Lowe has actually "spent the bulk of his time being a 2.65 ERA pitcher", this based on a couple pieces of data:

• Lowe had cancer treatments in the 2002/2003 offseason.
• In 2004, Lowe had a constantly shifting and below-average-fielding infield.

While I can buy those arguments to some extent, the fact of the matter remains that the ERA curves above are what they are. That is, the argument that Lowe's been a 2.65 ERA pitcher rests on selective sampling, and as such, needs several shovelsful of salt. I mean, if we're going to play that game, Jose Lima, based on his most recent postseason appearance, is one of the greatest pitchers ever to take the mound for quieting the Cardinals potent lineup, so we should pay him a gazillion dollars. Okay, that's taken to an extreme, but you get my point.

Brad Penny

Year	IP	ERA	K/9	K/BB	G/F	dERA	VORP
2000	119.2	4.81	6.02	1.33	1.3		13.6
2001	205.0	3.69	6.76	2.85	1.5		41.3
2002	129.1	4.66	6.47	1.86	1.3	4.65	3.1
2003	196.1	4.13	6.33	2.46	1.2	4.13	28.2
2004	143.0	3.15	6.99	2.47	1.1	3.59	34.1

2005 PECOTA projection: 128.1 IP, 4.14 ERA, 15.4 VORP

Find a penny, pick it up
And all day long, you'll have ...

... a one-year, $5.1M contract that will scare the bejesus out of Dodger fans everywhere. Okay, I'm being melodramatic; it's only one year, and it's really not for that much. (For a definition of "too much", see Lowe.) Penny's nerve damage in his arm is so unusual that Frank Jobe claims to have never seen anything like it before, which says nothing about its likelihood of recurrance. Without that we have comparables -- the big key to finding out how confident PECOTA is in its projection -- we don't know how good this projection is, but the low number of innings pitched tells us PECOTA thinks he's a solid bet to return to the DL. On the other hand, if he makes it to, say, 160-180 IP, he'd be worth 21.7 VORP. The upside is a guy who can get the job done when healthy, but isn't necessarily going to be healthy for you. Four wins is probably the upper limit for Brad, and I'm skeptical of calling him the likely team ace this year. Still, with stable and increasing strikeout rates and solid control, he's one of the top bets for that mantle -- along with our next subject, Odalis Perez.

Odalis Perez

Year	IP	ERA	K/9	K/BB	G/F	dERA	VORP
1998	10.2	4.22	4.22	1.25	3.14		1.6
1999	93	6	7.94	1.55	2.14		-1.1
2000	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0
2001	95.1	4.91	6.7	1.82	1.6		6.9
2002	222.1	3	6.27	4.08	1.36	3.56	59.9
2003	185.1	4.52	6.85	3.07	1.99	4.09	19.2
2004	196.1	3.26	5.87	2.91	1.62	4.21	49.7

2005 PECOTA projection: 166.1 IP, 3.89 ERA, 24.9 VORP

Is PECOTA being conservative because of his injury year in 2000? With increasing dERA (but too little data to accurately assess it), and gradually declining strikeout and K/BB rates, OP nonetheless is still a fine pitcher. I wouldn't go so far as to call him a guy to build around; his 2004 postseason meltdowns were proof enough of that. But, he's a solid 2-3 guy in the presence of a real mound menace -- something the Dodgers decidedly lack this year.

Jeff Weaver

Year	IP	ERA	K/9	K/BB	G/F	dERA	VORP
1999	163.2	5.55	6.27	2.04	1.2		16.4
2000	200	4.32	6.12	2.62	1.51		45.9
2001	229.1	4.08	5.97	2.24	1.21		38.4
2002	199.2	3.52	5.95	2.75	1.27	3.7	44.7
2003	159.1	5.99	5.25	1.98	1.11	4.46	-5.1
2004	220	4.01	6.26	2.28	1.06	4.4	37.9

2005 PECOTA projection: 178.0 IP, 4.07 ERA, 21.7 VORP

Lil' Jeffy had a pretty good year last year, rebounding from the hellhole that is the Bronx; pitching instruction seems to have vanished over there, and they spit out former aces-to-be faster than other teams can bring them up to be traded. This is the first year he'll be dramatically overpriced, thanks to one of Steinbrenner's Himalayan contracts. Solid control and an increasing strikeout rate put him in the front line of the likelies for the title of Dodgers' best pitcher.

And The Winner Is...

The temptation, of course, is to go with a straight line on what PECOTA predicts. Yes, I'm about to succumb, but let me explain why, first. For one thing, the Dodgers don't have a clear ace, so in a sense, me trying to anoint one amounts to an exercise in roto-head futility. For another, you've got a staff -- with the exception of Weaver and Ishii -- who have a significant injury history. So anything could happen at any time. All that said, I'll take my chances with, in order, Perez, Weaver, Penny, Lowe, and Ishii, with the caveat that if Penny gets and stays healthy, he could outdo all of the others, but that is, at best, speculation.