6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

Back home in (um) sunny California, even if the sunshine is temporarily liquified.

In My Day, We (Ab)used Steroids, And We Liked It!

Is Barry Bonds a steroids user? Well, assuming he is, he's only an anachronism -- or will be soon enough. EE Times publishes an article surveying the latest trends in human enhancement technology. On tap for the future: synthetic muscle implants, bionic eyes, and nanotech brain enhancements to improve cognitive skills (that's thinking, duh).

"The use of anabolic steroids, in retrospect, will seem almost prehistoric — as well as stupid," said Jerome C. Glenn, executive director of the American Council for the United Nations University (Washington) and co-author of the book 2004: State of the Future. "In the future, we'll be able to enhance ourselves in other ways that won't be so dangerous."

Like getting surgery to add pounds of synthetic muscle wouldn't entail some risk.

Thanks to Slashdot for the link.

Jayson Werth, Injury Magnet?

Among Dodger fans, there's a fashionable meme circulating that Jayson Werth is a big injury risk going forward. This stems mainly from several problems he encountered this year:

• He missed about half the season this year due to an oblique muscle he pulled in April.
• Making a spectacular catch in Colorado, he banged up his ribcage, an injury which followed him for the rest of the season.
• An injured elbow ligament makes him iffy for spring training.

I admit to being skeptical about his chances of recovering from the ligament injury unless he undergoes surgery, but other than that and/or a less-than-clean bill of health from Will Carroll, I'm still not entirely sold that he's a problem. Condider Mr. Casey Kotchman, noteworthy, so far, for his ability to avoid striking out, but more, for his attractiveness to injury. Note that minor league seasons are usually 140 games long.

      Games Played
Age  Werth  Kotchman
====================
19    125     81
20    101     64
21    109    115

Kotchman's considered a real injury risk -- and has the litany of freak injuries to prove it. Whether it's a ground ball to the mouth or repeated hamstring injuries, Kotchman's earned the reputation of being fragile. Those wishing to smear Jayson with the same brush will have to first overcome the fact that he already played in 75 more games at the same age than Kotchman.

For Giants Fans, Murphy's On The Mound

Nobody, it seems, is that interested in looking at what other teams have done or haven't done so far, particularly this Giants fan who's New Year's resolution is to write off the Giants long before September and October dance their way:

Resolution #4: Don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose.

This is the most important one. If you break the first three, you’re still looking good. Break this one, and you’re hosed.

This is a popular resolution amongst Cubs, Indians, White Sox and Giants fans but it’s one that resurfaces every year without fail in Northern California. (It’s funky not seeing the Red Sox in that list anymore, isn’t it?) Try as they might, Giants fans can’t help themselves by getting too excited when they shouldn’t and excited enough to have it sting whenever the likes of Felix Rodriguez, Dusty Baker, Jose Cruz, Jr., and an assortment of other Giant goons invariably ensconce their heads in their lower intestine at the worst possible moments. And face facts: Owner Pete Magowan proclaimed the day after the regular season concluded that they would NOT be pursuing a big ticket free agent, i.e., Carlos Beltran. Right there, every fan worth their weight in his/her salt should realize that expectations can’t be raised to a World Series level (again). Ninety wins, maybe a division crown and – Brian Sabean’s friggin’ favorite word – competitiveness is about all you can hope to get underneath your Festivus pole this year. How the front office brass that had its team come within 8 outs of public-nakedness-inducing hysteria can remain content with fielding just a “competitive” team is beyond me. Sure, Sabean and Co. are giving us Armando Benitez, Mike Matheny, Omar “At Least It Rhymes with Nomar” Vizquel and Moises Alou, but aren’t they more B-level than true impact players? So don’t get your hopes up unless you’re fully prepared to have your heart treated like that poor sap in the Temple of Doom. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Trust me, losing is a powerful teacher.

Sure, it's a lousy division. But, hey, Randy Johnson's no longer a Snake, the Cards just got less than a sure thing as its supposed "ace", and the NL East continues to look like Atlanta's playground -- and we know how effective that club has been in the postseason. The NL continues its descent to mediocrity, while the pantheon of great pitching in the AL (read: Yankees and Red Sox) ages yet another year. Is it really that unrealistic to think another NL team could beat whomsoever ends up with the AL pennant?

Happy New Year

Happy New Year, everyone. 6-4-2 will be on hiatus tomorrow. I think.

I'm told that it's raining in LA, which is just as well; no baseball anywhere to be had anyway. In Seattle, where it always rains, the winners of the Beltre sweepstakes conjugate uncreated words, searching for the perfect verb for the act of overestimating a team's offseason improvement. The Mariners' pitching, for starters, is a mess:

Our rotation is currently comprised of (1) a 26 year old coming off a 4.67 ERA and arm problems, masquerading as an ace, (2) a 42 year old finesse southpaw who had a historically bad HR/9 ratio last season, (3) a right-handed enigma whose actual ability is overstated, and who has a career 4.58 ERA, (4) an Indy League workhorse with 88 ML innings under his belt, and (5) a replacement-level arm due to earn eight times the amount of his equivalently-talented brethren next year. The bullpen’s also got a series of question marks, with Soriano likely missing all of 2005 after surgery and Guardado trying to let his shoulder heal instead of going under the knife.

The pitching staff, as it stands at this writing, probably belongs in the lower middle class of the AL, with the potential to hover around league-average if a few things break the right way.

This is exactly the kind of mental calculation I find myself doing when thinking about the Dodgers. Now it's possible that DePodesta has some trades in mind before opening day, but time grows short; pitchers and catchers (for the Cubs, anyway, and I imagine the Dodgers have a similar schedule) report February 16th. Minus Lima, minus Perez, the Dodgers' rotation grows rather worse, resigning risks or no; and while Perez's absence isn't yet a certainty, the absence of discussion is so far an indicator that DePodesta's going to let him walk -- the same as with Beltre. If the Dodgers plan on contending, I think it's reasonable to ask, given this tortuous offseason -- in what year?

ESPN reports Randy Johnson is a Yankee, pending Bud Selig's signature. May the Unit's arm fall off.

The latest set of Johnson rumors has apparently sparked this article in The Brushback. Whether it's comedy or a tragic, bitter commentary on the state of MLB free agency I'll let you decide.

... but he can go to sleep at night knowing there won't be any more of them. Sontag, 71, died of leukemia Tuesday. More at Wikipedia and LA Brain Terrain.

Not much going on today --

Dodger Dudcasting

Horrible. This makes me think even less of the Dodger front office. And on even numbered days in months containing an "r"...

Why, Mr. Rocky Claus, Why?

From Rotoworld:

Alfredo Amezaga homered twice and drove in four runs yesterday for Obregon of the Mexican Pacific League. Amezaga, who was claimed off waivers from the Angels earlier this month, is batting .241/.371/.386 in 145 AB. It's hard to see him making the Rockies as a utilityman following the addition of Desi Relaford to go along with Luis Gonzalez.

He'll be released again. Why do this?

Nats Make Offer To Perez

Jim Bowden has made an offer on behalf of the Nationals to Odalis Perez, reports the Washington Post, for 3 years/$18M, about the same as the Mariners. The Dodgers' rotation is full of swiss cheese right now, and we're not even making an offer to OP? Well, I guess I can understand it; there's some good pitching in the minors, but resting your entire plan on those hopes can be risky. Just ask the Orioles, whose plans for their rotation came horribly awry when their youngsters fell apart faced with actual major league hitters.

Latest Randy Johnson Ménage à Trois

Via the New York Post:

• Yankees to Diamondbacks: Javier Vazquez, Dioner Navarro, Brad Halsey, and $8M cash.
• Diamondbacks to Yankees: Randy Johnson

The Snakes would then attempt to lure (?) Shawn Green from the Dodgers using Navarro. Another scenario has them moving Vazquez to the Orioles in exchange for "Erik Bedard, closer Jorge Julio, and outfielders Jay Gibbons and Luis Matos." Sounds too much like wishful thinking at the back end of those deals, if they're even realistic. I really don't see Johnson leaving the Diamondbacks simply because the returned value is unlikely to be very high.

Do these guys not read? Is Rich just a voice in the wilderness? I mean, really, do these guys even know what the word "blog" means? Are we going to have to edumacate them all, one at a time?

Years ago, when my sister and I were both in high school, my sister's best friend's father was a contractor of merry disposition and twinkling eye. One day, my sister was at her friend's house watching MTV when the video for the Men Without Hats song "Safety Dance" appeared. Upon watching this, her friend's father leapt into the air and declared, "I can do that! Get me a dwarf!"

That's pretty much how I feel about Buster Olney, Jerry Crasnick, Michael Knisley, and Tim Kurkjian right now.

Wait Til Next Year has a few words to say about a bunch of different prospects from different systems. Here's some about a trio of Dodgers prospects:

Greg Miller -- ... [N]ext season will be the second unveiling of Greg Miller to the minor leagues. With an arm that is apparently healthy, look for the Dodgers to send their prized lefty back to the Southern League. I think he’ll finish with a decent ERA, after a start to the season that will make Logan White question his presence in AA. Look for him to come back at the end of the season, and possibly even contribute to either AAA or the big league team.

Chad Billingsley -- He’ll be Miller’s mate in the Southern League rotation, which will also have prospects like Jonathan Broxton and Mike Megrew. Yikes, watch out for this club next year. I expect Billingsley to just absolutely crush this league in April and May, with a promotion to the PCL in June. He’ll struggle there, posting numbers a shade better (with a much better K/9) than Joe Blanton’s last season. He’s much more likely to earn a September start than Miller, but an average Los Angeles team will probably be able to afford allowing both to see time.

Chuck Tiffany -- If you haven’t yet heard of Chuck Tiffany, you will in 2005. Pitchers just simply seem to dominate in Vero Beach, and Tiffany will provide no exception to that rule. Expect him to post an ERA in the low-2.00s before being moved up to AA to take Billingsley’s spot in the rotation. He’ll become known as a better pitching prospect than Greg Miller, though I think time will prove the latter to be a bit stronger. Tiffany will undoubtedly pass the John Danks of the world, that’s for sure.

I very much doubt that DePo is holding back on finalizing the Dodgers' 2005 rotation because of these guys, but it certainly sounds like they're tantalizingly close.

Footnote: At some point, DePodesta has to start thinking about why the Dodgers are using pitcher-unfriendly Vegas for their AAA team -- and the choice may be made for him if Vegas wins its bid to get a major league team. I'd hate to see our youngsters get wrecked in the relatively thin air in Vegas. Of course, it was worse when they were in Albuquerque...

Two recent stories in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette about the Angels' new stadium for the Travelers. First, this one indicating financier Warren Stephens has purchased 11 acres in North Little Rock near the Arkansas River. The new park will feature nighttime views of Little Rock's skyline, but isn't expected to be ready until 2007. "Ray Winder Field is among the oldest parks in the United States and [Travelers General Manager Bill] Valentine has said it needs at least $5 million to $10 million in renovations."

Second, North Little Rock has earmarked $500,000 for a combined shopping center and ballpark complex. This money will come out of a proposed $63.3M 2005 budget. "The addition amounts to about half of the city’s streets and sidewalks funding for 2004," and as usual, the local pols are crowing about how much money this will bring in:

Shifting the money is "an investment in the city’s future," Hays said, adding that the shopping center could generate $2 million to $3 million an- nually in city sales tax revenue.

... For capital needs not included in the budget, City Alderman Martin Gipson said he wants to propose a bond issue next spring. Possibilities include an $800,000 ladder truck for the Fire Department, $140,000 for the Funland amusement area in Burns Park and renovations to the North Heights Community Center gymnasium and swimming pool.

So the city goes into debt to support a ballpark and a shopping center. Whatever. Unfortunately, Ray Winder Field is somewhat space-constrained to add modern facilities (right field abuts I-630), and there's little room to remove parking lots. Unfortunately, at this level of the game, public financing is very pervasive, and probably no more effective than it is in the majors.

One of the things I love about baseballblogs.org is the infinite variety of subspecies out there, one of which I stumbled across today in the guise of Dick Mills The Baseball Pitching Rebel. Mills had an unsuccessful and brief career with the Red Sox, lasting all of three and two-thirds innings in 1970. He since has held a number of jobs but has recently turned himself back towards providing advice to young pitchers. He claims Barry Zito as his most famous client, as well as his son, Ryan Mills, who garnered a $2M signing bonus in 1998. Ryan subsequently stalled in AAA, and Baseball America even went so far as to name him the worst sixth choice since the inception of the draft. Velocity isn't everything, I suppose, and you can't learn craftiness. But that hasn't stopped Mills pére from giving advice, and he has a lot to say about almost any pitching-related subject you could care to mention (e.g., the famous towel drill). It makes for interesting reading, even if you really have no clue who's right.

Since Jon is temporarily incapacitated with a bout of un-bloggy activity, he can't tell you that Dodger Thoughts is a finalist in the Best of Blog Awards. Even if he weren't taking a short holiday hiatus, I'm not sure he'd even be likely to toot his own horn, but I'll do it for him. Voting starts New Year's Day. So remember to vote -- you know you want to. You know it's the right thing to do. So mark your (new) calendar, and don't forget!

Anybody saying that it doesn't matter whether the Angels pick up Orlando Cabrera on a stupidly bloated contract should be reminded that the Angels will pay the luxury tax this year, to the tune of $927,059. The Yankees, who appear set to leap over the $128M payroll level for the third consecutive year, will get taxed at a staggering 40% rate in 2005. Considering their payroll now borders the $200M mark, that's $28.8M they'd have to pay -- about half of some teams' payrolls. "Payrolls include salaries, prorated shares of signing bonuses, earned bonuses, buyouts of 2004 options and cash transactions." Anaheim was taxed at a 22.5% rate for 2004.

The Dodgers had the fifth highest payroll in baseball with $101.7M.

Signings A-Plenty

The free agency machine roars on ahead --

• Free agent and former Philly southpaw starter Eric Milton signed a 3-year/$25.5M deal with the Reds.
• Kevin Millwood is said to be nearing completion on a one-year/$7M deal with Cleveland, but many obstacles remain to complete it.
• Former Dodger Rookie of the Year (1996) Todd Hollandsworth signed a one-year deal with the Cubs. Details of the contract were not disclosed.
• Update: Not a deal yet, but Odalis Perez is in talks with the Mets.

  "I'm excited about the possibility of joining Pedro Martinez in the Mets' rotation. Pedro's intelligence and maturity and my abilities to pitch would be a tremendous combination," Perez said.

  Not to mention his ability to keep it together under pressure... not.

Dodgers Have No Monopoly On Wacked-Out Players

Sidney Ponson, previously more notable for being the object of a 2003 trade that absolutely rooked the Giants, found himself in some trouble in the island nation of Aruba when he hit a judge several times with his watercraft. The judge was hospitalized, and his condition is "unknown". Sure makes Bradley's incidents look almost endearing, doesn't it?

Big Blue Wrecking Crew Moves

In case you missed it, the new address is www.dodgers.cc.

Again in the "old news" department -- because this slipped my eye earlier and I forgot to put it in my Pilot before I left -- the Golden Baseball League has concluded its first round of tryouts to fill the 240 positions for the 30-man spring training roster. The press release claims half the players have experience in the minors somewhere or in independent leagues, but running the names through The Baseball Cube, only the following players turned up as having any pro experience (or at least college experience):

Player	Years Pro Experience	League*	Pos	Stats**	Notes
Chico
Erik Estrada	1	Central (Ind)	P	0-1, 4.50 ERA, 16 IP, 6.75 K/9, 1.5 K/BB
Fullerton
Craig Green	2	Northwest (A)	RHP	0-1, 6.61 ERA, 16.1 IP, 4.41 K/9, 2.66 K/BB
Darren Heinrichs	0	NCAA	?	.226/.250/.290	But drafted as a pitcher; out of baseball since 1998
Robert Mason	3	GCL (Rookie A)	LHP	0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 IP, 0.00 K/9, 0.00 K/BB	Did not play in 2004
Tim Thurman	2	Appalachian (Rookie A)	1B	.277/.355/.434
Jose Rodriguez	1	Ind.	SS	N/A	Unsure if this is the right Jose; TBC shows ten, half of whom could be this guy.
Long Beach
Adam Montarbo	2	Central (Ind)	RHP	4-5, 3.27 ERA, 66.0 IP, 4.09 K/9, 1.50 K/BB
Samone Peters	7	Central (Ind)	1B	.231/.271/.452	INF in minors.
Zach Silvera	0	NCAA	P	4-0, 5.71 ERA, 41.0 IP, 8.34 K/9, 1.58 K/BB
Mesa
Jason Alcott	0	NCAA	C	.380/.553/.638	At Alvernia College, in 141 AB; out of baseball since 2003.
Keith Bowman	0	NCAA	P	.252/.309/.441	At CSUN, in 111 AB; out of baseball in 2004. Drafted as a pitcher.
Greg Cauble	1	Frontier (Ind.)	P	0-0, 3.60 ERA, 5.0 IP, 9.00 K/9, 1.67 K/BB
Chris Davis	N/A	N/A	P	N/A	TBC lists six players with this name, five of whom are pitchers. Take your pick.
San Diego
Jeffrey Blitstein	N/A	NCAA?	P	N/A	Last known year 1999 with Chapman College. Drafted by Houston Astros in 1999.
Nick Guerra	0	NCAA	P	.267/.374/.392	With CSUSJ, but drafted as a pitcher. May also be the same as this Nick Guerra, who played for UCSF in 2000. Out of baseball in 2004.
Michael Leishman	1	Frontier (Ind.)	P	0-1, 6.43 ERA, 28.0 IP, 9.69 K/9, 1.67 K/BB
Justin Ottman	0	NCAA	P	3-0, 6.00 ERA, 21.0 IP, 6.86 K/9, 1.78 K/BB	Out of baseball in 2004.
Surprise
Rafael Clemente	1	Frontier (Ind)	PH	.000/.000/.000	In 5 AB.
Mike Smith	N/A	N/A	P	N/A	Take your pick of about a dozen.
Tijuana
Carlos Aponte	1	Canadian (Ind.)	P	0-0, 3.05 ERA, 21.2 IP, 7.40 K/9, 1.21 K/BB	Out of baseball in 2003.
Jon Marshall	1	Central (Ind)	C	.063/.132/.063	In 48 AB. Also played for Cal Poly.
Gavin Monjaras	0	NCAA	SS	.232/.371/.338	In 198 AB, with NMSU.
Yuma
Joe Davenport	1	Atlantic (Ind.)	P	1-3, 9.53 ERA, 17.0 IP, 3.71 K/9, 0.70 K/BB	There's another pitcher with this name who bounced around in the minors (active 1994 through 2001), but has been out since 2002.
Jorge Perez	1	Canadian (Ind.)	P	5-3, 4.81 ERA, 58.0 IP, 9.15 K/9, 2.95 K/BB
Jjallil Sandoval	3	Frontier (Ind.)	P	.174/.296/.217	In 23 AB. Skipped 2003. In his last full season with Tri Cities (Rookie A, Houston), hit .242/.343/.274 in 190 AB.
Justin Schuda	4	California (A)	1B	.190/.272/.285	In 242 AB. Out of baseball since 2003.

* Last league played in.
** For pitchers: W-L, ERA, IP, K/9, K/BB; all others, Avg/OBP/SLG. Stats from last team or cumulative for last full year in professional club shown.

Pretty clearly, the bulk of the players coming from college and pro programs are pitchers, which pretty much makes sense; it's the hardest thing to teach.

Independent Thinking has the latest newsletter from the GBL.

Cubs pitchers and catchers report February 16.

Oakland has started selling spring training tickets.

Sigh.

The A's have offered contracts to seven, signing three, according to the San Francisco Examiner:

OAKLAND -- Right-hander Chad Bradford agreed Monday to a $1.4 million, one-year contract with the A's who also reached one-year deals with right-hander Tim Harikkala and second baseman Mark Ellis.

The A's also offered contracts to designated hitter Erubiel Durazo, outfielders Eric Byrnes and Bobby Kielty, and right-handed pitchers Octavio Dotel and Juan Cruz -- all eligible for salary arbitration.

Bradford was 5-7 with a 4.42 ERA and one save in 68 relief appearances with the As in 2004.

The minute I think baseball will take a break, sure enough, something interesting happens. The Kansas City Royals have re-signed Jose Lima to a one-year, $2.5M contract, according to The Hardball Times. I figured he'd go cheap; no matter how well he did earlier this year, you have to paste in a bunch of caveats about his prior seasons. Best of luck, Jose.

Face it, nothin's going down today. Everybody's on vacation. Even Steinbrenner's unshackled Brian Cashman from his Tampa desk (though the surgically implanted cellphone remains connected to his cerebellum). For no good reason, a bunch of seasonal miscellany --

Mrs. Frinklin Says No To Robinson's-May

Caught this fairly old (October) missive about Robinson's-May via the comments at Pearly Gates, a warning to avoid their bridal registration services. I had this happen when a friend of mine registered several years ago and ended up getting duplicated all kinds of stuff because their registration system is so horrible. Unbelievably bad, and amazing that it still hasn't been fixed.

Brrr

Every year about this time we get reports of the reckless or mentally deficient living in cold weather areas who dive -- sans appropriate attire, such as wetsuits -- into arctic waters, the better to prove something-or-other. While this adipose group of Germans is probably better shielded from the cold than some others, for the cameras' sake, it's best they stay in:

This bunch in Wisconsin has an appropriately-titled backdrop:

Unsuccessful entrants for the Darwin Awards? Hoo boy.

More CL Fun

I have never made any pretense that this blog is G-rated, though I do try to reserve the obscenities to days when a general manager appears to bite off more than he can obviously chew or breaks my heart. Sniffle. (Well, I'm over that, now.) So if you have tender sensibilities, I recommend you look elsewhere; my aim here is to enjoy life to the extent anyone with dark sensibilities can. As with Jim Bouton, whose book Ball Four had the nerve to be forthright and worse, from MLB's perspective, accurate, I don't aim for shock value.

To that end, I have a friend who sells work "clothes" to strippers. (Yes, he does give a discount if they shop in the nude.) This line of work has earned him endless admiration from some of our number, but the scene for such sales is inevitably where the public can't witness; not so for this obnoxious episode, which reminds one of the "Did you bring enough for everyone to share?" rule justifying gum-confiscation in elementary school.

Ah, honesty. How many times have I asked myself, "Why not be a sugar daddy for an aspiring lesbian singer-songwriter?" But lesbian singer-songwriters aren't nearly as interesting, from a practical viewpoint, as those who can turn a mean monkey wrench; and at the intersection of "lesbian" and "plumbing" you find comedy, as in, an answer to the age-old question "How many lesbians does it take to retrieve an earring from the drain in a bathroom sink?". (Spoiler: it takes four.)

It being the day after Christmas, it's also time to make returns and exchanges, viz. "My boyfriend for your alarm clock".

Mixing saber-toothed rodents, food preparation, and stick figures: "Yes, I often make omelettes topless. Like you don't." With side-splitting visual aids!

Aw, this is shooting fish in a barrel. I could be here all day...

A few bits of miscellany on the Xmas Eve:

• Would it be Christmas without a gratuitous link to the Physics of Santa Claus page? No, of course not...
• For that matter, how about the NORAD Tracks Santa page?
• If you ain't already, get your Christmas groove on at somafm.com.
• British or not, thanks to Slashdot for this list of the top 100 wished-for toys from the 70's or thereabouts. Sure brings me back to the days when my baby sister and I used to mark the calendar off until Christmas, which seemed then forever away on December 1st.

Things To Be Grateful For Dep't:

• Tyler Blezinsky, for getting me started on this adventure.
• No matter how hot-headed I might momentarily get, one of Jon or Tom will remind me to step back.
• Meeting so many new people and making so many new friends over the last year: Richard, Sean, the Alchemist, Blackhawk Waterloo (whatever his real name might be), Rick, Robert, Rich, and so many others I got to finally meet in person at the Anaheim Marriott and at baseball games throughout the year.
• A fantastic wife who not only puts up with my obsessiveness about baseball, but abets it.
• Terriffic in-laws.
• Good health.
• A warm house in the midst of the white Christmas out here in Arkansas.
• Finally -- how could I be so forgetful! -- thanks to everyone who's come over here and read my ongoing ranting. Traffic has ramped up pretty incredibly this month, but unlike Jon, I think it's pretty safe to say I know where my readership comes from -- Dodger Thoughts. It's gratifying to know others enjoy what I do enough to come back.

Merry Christmas to everyone! 6-4-2 will be closed tomorrow -- but of course, I'll find something to say as soon as I say that.

Steve Henson of the Times informs us that the up-to-the-minute version of the Dodgers is about the same price as the old version, if slightly weaker defensively (Cora vs. Kent in particular). It's not a viewpoint I'll contest at this exact moment, nor will I promote it until PECOTA has a full set of 2005 projections out. But consider, if you will, what Giants fans are having -- and hoping -- to contend with. Fogball, for instance, assigns the title of "worst deal of the off season for any team" to Sabean's signing of ex-Cardinal Mike Matheny. Matheny will start next season at the ripe old age of 34, and the Giants expect to be paying him for three years. This is absolutely overpayment, so much so that Waiting For Boof declares

This is the worst move of Brian Sabean's career. This is Brian Sabean drinking rubbing alcohol and hitting on his brother's wife, because this is as low as our fearless general manager can get.

Sheesh. Back to El Lefty Malo, who makes the amazing point that the Giants do not have a single starting position player younger than 30 on their 2005 roster. The Dodgers may be older in Kent and Drew than they were in Cora and Beltre, but the difference here is staggering.

The Giants gave Dusty Baker the boot in part because he failed to bring home the rings in 2002 with arguably the Giants' best roster in a decade. Part of the problem with Dusty as a manager -- just ask Cubs fans or Hee Seop Choi about this -- is that he steadfastly refuses to give playing time to youngsters when he could be playing established veterans. This neatly dovetailed into Sabean's general philosophy of building the club by trades and free agent signings rather than by using the farm. However, I've always wondered whether in some wise Dusty attracted the blame for that failure that should have accrued to Sabean; after all, it was Proven Veteran Closer™ Robb Nen who tossed the losing pitch in game 6. You play the team you're given.

Under financial duress, and the exigencies of age upon their god in left field, the Giants are in win-now mode, as much as they have ever been. This is the penultimate year for it: after 2006, Barry can start his beatification. Steroids or no, there are no asterisks in Cooperstown. The Dodgers have no such impetus, and, even should the team fail to make the postseason, the Dodgers have enough young talent in their farm to make us hopeful. The Giants have few similar options, so it comes as no surprise to hear Elbo shout the hosannah, "thank goodness for Pedro Feliz, who doesn't turn 30 until April 27." The whispered words "injury risk" over J.D. Drew are a fortissimo chorus singing over the Giants' lineup.

You Like Me, You Really Really Like Me

Gosh, the encomiums keep on coming: embarrassingly nice things said about 6-4-2 by LA Blogs, who I for some reason still haven't provided a sidebar link. By way of return, LAB is a great source of epiphanies, local writing, and just plain good stuff. Thanks, guys, and I'll get that omission straightened out just as soon as I can figure out a grouping for you.

P.S.: while you're over there, check out this great short Christmas post on Negro Please.

Gammons Takes On The Trade

The world is full of long knives, the patient is dead, and every sportswriter dons the coroner's lab coat. Gammons spins yet another tale both different from and subtler than earlier editions, essentially saying that Frank McCourt respected Vazquez's wish to remain on the east coast so much -- he would have demanded a trade after 2005 anyway -- that the Dodgers torpedoed the deal:

Vazquez did not refuse the physical, he asked that it be postponed, but the Yankees wanted the deal done and wanted the deadline. He did not ever threaten to refuse to report to spring training; he has a house in Jupiter, Fla., that is an hour from Vero Beach.

But by Tuesday, McCourt was convinced that Vazquez would, indeed, be miserable on the West Coast, would demand a trade after the 2005 season and be willing to walk away from the $25 million owed him in 2006-2007. "In the end," McCourt said, "what is more important than family? Anyone who knows us knows how strong and close we are as a family, and it's one value whose importance cannot be overstated. We came away with great respect for Javy's honesty, integrity and value system."

... and no doubt, a newfound respect for the KISS principle.

If You Have To Ask, You Can't Afford It

The Boston Red Sox have come to terms with their free agent catcher Jason Veritek, to the tune of $40M/4 years. Not that DePo was actively pursuing him, but there goes another option behind the plate.

The Real Reason We Got Drew

... is because Tommy Lasorda thinks his wife is like, really hot:

Hey, Tommy, you're supposed to shake J.D.'s hand...

Well, that didn't take any time at all: the Cards have signed free agent David Eckstein, for 3 years and an unknown number of dollars. Also on ESPN. Thanks to lloyd for the nod.

Update: 3 years/$10.25M per ESPN. This was clearly the deal Stoneman should have signed.

A Christmas story, from Bob's Backstop on Birds In The Belfry. A time for miracles.

Hello, Miller, Millar, Mueller, and Miller -- Please Hold

Thanks to Idiots Write About Sports for the observation that, with the signing of former Astro pitcher Wade Miller, the Boston Red Sox now have three Miller homophones working there and is "one-eighth of the way toward fielding a roster composed entirely of Millers". All they need is to sign Damian and Justin Miller.

Drew Signing Official

The Dodgers will make Drew's signing official on Thursday. I guess I'm not unhappy in that the club managed to get a decent bat, but getting one that doesn't play third base, has only one time in his career had more than 500 at bats in a season, and is already 29 after having lost significant time to injuries -- while homegrown Beltre was cut loose -- is not comforting.

Is the signing, as Baysball put it, "lunacy" for the number of years involved? Perhaps. But if the A's are in the process of spending -- what? a fifth? -- of their salary budget on Jason Kendall, how much smarter is that? The battle of the saber-GMs goes on, with each move more inscrutable than the last.

Old Business: The Departures Of Amezaga And Jenks

I didn't have much to say about the Chisox claiming RHP Bobby Jenks off waivers, nor the same when the Rockies acquired no-love-but-for-the-glove Alfredo Amezaga in the same way. With Izturis on the roster, I can understand losing Amezaga; he might even turn into Neifi Perez II in the thin air up there. But what I don't understand is -- why lose Jenks? The Angels were certainly hoping they could get Clement, but when, the very next day Matt Clement signed with Boston, the Angels lost a highly-ranked prospect. Granted, that was before the pins went into his elbow, and no, I don't think highly of the White Sox organization, but still, this seems to me an embarrassing stumble. A defining mark of rich men who stay that way is their blank refusal to pay a nickel more for anything than they have to, but Stoneman isn't doing that. At least it wasn't Santana...

Four years into the occupation of SBC Park, the Giants are hoping to get their new park reassessed to lower their property tax burden, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. "'Ballparks, arenas and similar facilities tend to depreciate in value -- more like a car than a house,' [Giants senior vice president and senior counsel Jack] Blair said." I wonder how long it will take for the state to stop laughing. Quick, whose campaign reelection funds has he contributed to?

Various and sundry notes the morning after the Big Trade that Wasn't:

• The Times today reports Shawn Green's agent says Green is reevaluating his situation with the Dodgers, whatever that means.
• Here's another Times story confirming the Vazquez-refuses-exam angle as the reason for the trade breakdown.
• Ken Rosenthal runs an article attacking DePodesta's signing as essentially trading Beltre for Drew, calling Drew "not a player to build around, especially in a high-profile market." As more than one wag has observed, Drew's terms are famously the same as another fragile Boras client and Dodger: Darren Dreifort.
• The San Diego Union-Tribune has a piece quoting Padres GM Kevin Towers and manager Bruce Bochy, who took a surprisingly diplomatic tone regarding the Dodgers' chaotic offseason:

  "I'd imagine there's a plan," Towers said. "I'd imagine we haven't seen the last of them yet. I wouldn't be surprised if they've still got some pretty good things up their sleeves."

  Padres manager Bruce Bochy, customarily more cautious than Towers, likewise reserved judgment pending future transactions.

  "Once we get in spring training and all the cards are dealt, you can answer where we all stand," Bochy said last night. "I don't think it's done. I still think there's going to be some moves made."

• The Orange County Register said "the Dodgers were not likely to 'actively pursue' resurrecting any portion of the collapsed deal" according to DePodesta.

In the more-likely-to-be-factual department, Rotoworld passes on an AP story by -- who else -- Raul's pal Enrique Rojas saying Moises Alou will play for his dad in San Francisco for two years/$13.6M. Better hope he's got a bunch of groundball/strikeout pitchers in front of him, because his defense has slipped a bit lately, and that was without having that jinky corner in SBC Park's right field to contend with. PECOTA says he's a hair over replacement the rest of his career (he'll be 38 on opening day), though his actual 2004 VORP was 51.5, so your mileage may vary -- a lot.

Who to blame for the Big Trade's collapse? According to ESPN, it was Javier Vazquez, who refused to show up for a physical as a condition of the trade.

According to The Book of Mike (hat tip to David Pinto's Baseball Musings), it was actually Paul DePodesta, upon whom the blame actually accrues for the trade unraveling. He claims, based on the usual anonymous player agent, that not only did DePodesta leak the trade to Ken Rosenthal, but he counterclaimed publicly that the trade wasn't as likely as previously thought.

DePodesta allegedly lied to both the Yankees and Diamondbacks when he told them yesterday that the paperwork for the trade had been submitted to the commissioner's office. As you would expect, this is a major no-no in the baseball world, and insider's expect that DePodesta has - at best - made his doing his job extremely difficult (as other teams will be hesitant, if not completely unwilling, to work with him). Others feel that DePodesta may find himself out of baseball - or at least out of a GM level position - in the near future because of his handling of this situation.

We have also learned that this was not the first trade that DePodesta got cold feet about after taking it nearly all the way to the altar. The Dodgers attempted to back out of their July trade with the Marlins (principally involving catcher Paul LoDuca and pitcher Brad Penny). DePodesta tried to back out at the last minute, as was the case yesterday with the Johnson trade, but was called to the carpet [sic] by Marlins GM Larry Beinfest. Ultimately, the deal went through, but now the Dodgers are looking for a catcher and bullpen help this offseason - both of which became needs after their deadline deal with the then-champions.

Pinto, who's pretty thoughtful generally, adds:

Together, Beane and DePodesta were a really great GM. Paul, it looks like, doesn't have Billy's skills in dealing with others on these trades. He's a smart guy, so maybe he can develop those skills. If he does fail in this job, some smart GM will be glad to have him crunching numbers for his organization.

This non-trade had a lot of odd things to it. Bear in mind, this is purely rumor, but given the way the Charles Johnson nonsense went down earlier this year, it makes sense. Megatrades rarely get done because of all the potential loose ends. But could DePo plausibly get hung because of this? Perhaps, but I very much doubt it. Baseball is full of low-wattage types like Jim Bowden, and dozens in line behind him despite his eviction. DePodesta has the advantage of making a winner his first year in operation. He's earned a right to some respect -- whether or not he's the victim of a whisper campaign yours truly is helping to spread.

Thanks to changed tax rules, we can be pretty sure Cars for Causes won't be around to pester us with Bobby and his Close Personal Friend, Mr. Rick Monday.

Unless gvette turns out to be prescient, and he becomes the Dodgers' next color analyst.

I didn't want to draw too much attention to it, but when I saw that dodgers.com ran a story on it, I changed my mind. Phil Spencer, or as he was known on the fan forums, Spendodger, passed away December 16th; he was 75. Born Phil Spalletta, he changed his surname to Spencer after becoming a radio broadcaster; he later became president of the New York State Broadcasters Association and a member of the board of directors for the National Association of Broadcasters. His regular reports on spring training as well as his curmudgeonly commentary made the old Dodger forums that much more interesting. Phil -- good morrow to you, wherever you are.

BBWC thread; obituary in the Gloversville (NY) Leader-Herald.

... so thanks to Matt Welch's Warblog for saying nice things about me today.

Oh, daddy, when you gonna have that
Fat Cadillac like you always said
Oh, daddy, when you gonna
Put on some stretch pants, yeah

Well, don`t hold your breath
Cause it`ll make you blue
But the whole opera's not over yet
And I aim to make the fat lady sweat

-- Adrian Belew, "Oh Daddy"

I keep wondering about the wisdom of signing J. D. Drew. He's got a reputation for being fragile; why give him $55M/5 years when Beltre, who plays a more important defensive position, got $65M/5 years?

Let's look at their histories.

Adrian Beltre

Age on opening day 2005: 25
PECOTA card (similarity index: 26, projected 2005 VORP: 22)

Year     AB        Line      VORP
==================================
1998     195  .215/.278/.369  -0.7
1999     538  .275/.352/.428  29.3
2000     510  .290/.360/.475  42.4
2001     475  .265/.310/.411  16.1
2002     587  .257/.303/.426  24.4
2003     559  .240/.290/.424  17.7
2004     598  .334/.388/.629  89.1
-----------------------------------
Total  3,462                 218.3

Beltre, of course, had problems in 2001 with a botched appendectomy that apparently bothered him for two additional years. That he would eventually have a breakout year was not assured, but when he did, it was enough to make Dodger fans wish it had happened before his appendectomy. In some wise, it had, as his 2000 was about a third better than his previous year.

J.D. Drew

Age on opening day 2005: 29
PECOTA card (similarity index: 50, projected 2005 VORP: 19)

Year      AB        Line      VORP
==================================
1998      36  .417/.463/.972  11.8
1999     368  .242/.340/.424  16.7
2000     407  .295/.401/.479  33.9
2001     375  .323/.414/.613  57.4
2002     424  .252/.349/.429  17.4
2003     287  .289/.374/.512  24.6
2004     518  .305/.436/.569  78.7
----------------------------------
Total  2,415                 240.5

Drew has a rap for fragility, and no question but that it's earned. Over the same number of seasons as Beltre, he's racked up 30% fewer at bats. At the same time, Drew accomplished appreciably better value over that time despite his ill health. Certainly, given the contract size, you'd have to conclude that DePodesta knows something about his health that the other clubs didn't, in much the same way that other clubs stayed away from Vlad last year because of his history of back trouble.

PECOTA shows both of these guys -- admittedly, using year-old data -- as basically the same player, with the caveat that it claims to know far more about Drew than it does about Beltre because of the similarity indexes. In that sense, Beltre's a bigger risk, because our projection methods know less about him than about Drew. Obviously, age and position make Beltre more valuable in the marketplace, but his inability to remain a consistently good player give Drew, incredibly, the better track record thus far.

Is Drew a good signing? Ask me in a year.

Peter White, whom I was pleased to meet in person at the Winter Meetings, has a nice analysis of the Angels situation at Mariner Musings. Y'all should go over and read it.

Jon passes on this Bergen Record story (bugmenot for the userid/password) indicating the Dodgers have signed J.D. Drew for $55M/5 years. Of course, it's also on MLB.com.

Back in New York, all the Yanks down in Yankville will all say, "boo hoo", only this time there's no holding hands and singing at the end:

"The Dodgers reneged on the deal that was agreed to last Friday, unequivocally and with no contingencies except for a window for contract extensions and physicals," [Yankees president Randy] Levine said. "For some reason, the Dodgers over the weekend started to backpedal. Why they would break their word is only something they can answer. It sure is disappointing, and we'll have to think long and hard before ever doing business with the Dodgers again."

Newsday reported on its Web site Tuesday night that Javier Vazquez did not want to play for the Dodgers and refused to travel to Los Angeles for a physical. The paper, citing a source involved in the discussions, cited that as the "primary reason" for the deal's failure.

And, Green's like, totally mad at DePodesta or something!

DePodesta said the Dodgers had not been looking to trade Green, and that he will speak with the outfielder.

"I'm looking forward to making a call to some of the guys and telling them to settle down and not be concerned with being traded," he said.

Well, that's good, because it'll probably happen about twice a day from now to the beginning of the season. Not to worry, though: the feeling's mutual:

A baseball source told ESPN's Karl Ravech Tuesday night that Green has no desire to finish his career with the Dodgers and that the outfielder does not plan to re-sign with Los Angeles when his contract expires after the 2005 season.

According to the source, Green appeared ready to waive his no-trade clause to report to the Diamondbacks as part of the Johnson deal. And now that the deal has fallen apart, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks have already begun discussions on a stand-alone trade to send Green to Arizona. Details of the exact components of the trade are not yet known.

Oh, happy day! The Snakes get an overpriced Green on top of having to pay their overpriced, backloaded contracts from the late 90's and having to pay for Sexson and Glaus, two questionably healthy players with high-dollar contracts? Talk about a recipe for a neutered team for the next few years!

Whew. How could I have possibly thought this would get done if the Dodgers were really hoping to sign J. D. Drew on short notice, given that Boras is his agent?

For those who hope this means the Dodgers will keep this team together more than they had, I wouldn't count on it.

For those who thought DePodesta hadn't learned from last season's Charles Johnson fiasco, there is hope.

The three teams involved in the Big Trade have submitted the paperwork to MLB, according to ESPN. Hail Mary, full of grace...

Update, 3:44 PM: According to dodgers.com, Arizona has not yet completed their part of the paperwork. Will this never end...?

Kill This Rumor. Kill It Now.

Steve Young, in yesterday's Register: "The rumors persist that the Angels are interested in Mets slugger Mike Piazza. He would be a great fit at designated hitter, but not at catcher." Kill this rumor. Kill it now.

Chisox Non-Tender Schoeneweis

Another of the 2002 Angel squad gets non-tendered: Scott Schoeneweis, whom the Chisox have released. The Sox refused to budge from a take-it-or-leave-it $1.725M offer. Schoeny had bone chips removed from his pitching elbow in August but was never the same afterwards; before the surgery, he had a 3.33 ERA and a 4-1 record in eight starts. I hate to say it, but the Angels might consider picking him up as insurance.

Dave Roberts Traded To San Diego

Try to keep yourself healthy, Dave. For Jay Payton, Ramon Vasquez, minor leaguer David Pauley, and cash.

"This is where I wanted to be all along," said Roberts, who earned a World Series ring with the Red Sox just six weeks ago. "You don't think life can get any better, and then it does. Being a Padre after growing up here watching these guys my entire life, this is where I wanted to be."

This will be another in the likely failed attempts to figure out who is going to play center at Petco. The Pads haven't had a good CF since Finley, and the new park in particular is really killing them.

Dodgers Finalize Valentin Signing, Non-Tender Cora, Wilson, Stewart

The Dodgers announced a host of moves late today:

• First off, they finalized the Valentin signing, to a $3.5M/1-year deal. Valentin, despite Jon's earlier assertion that he "is no Adrian Beltre", will man third base as a starter. Watch out for olé plays!

  If I told you that Valentin's line from 2004 was .216/.287/.473 and Juan Encarnacion's was .236/.299/.405, would it surprise you?

• All of Alex Cora, Tom Wilson, and Scott Stewart were non-tendered. These were not particularly surprising.

  "With the loss of Adrian, we needed people with power. Kent goes a long way, as does Valentin, but ultimately that takes significant at-bats away from Alex," said DePodesta. "Frankly, he deserves better, he deserves to play every day somewhere."

  ... said DePodesta, at least being civil about a mediocre offensive player.
• The Dodgers acquired reliever Frank Brooks off waivers from Pittsburgh. (Here's his baseballcube.com link.) Brooks has a 4.67 ERA in 17.1 IP, with 9.35 K/9 and 2.00 K/BB rates, not too shabby. He's a flyball pitcher, so outfield defense will be key.
• Wilson Alvarez was offered a $4M/2-year deal. He will pitch in relief.
• Olmedo Saenz was offered a $650k/1-year deal, and will be the team's main righty pinch-hitter.
• Giovanni Carrara was offered a $500k/1-year deal, and will provide swing relief.
• Also: the Dodgers are still waiting on Scott Boras-represented J.D. Drew to complete the Big Trade.
• The Dodgers are close to a one-year deal with Milton Bradley to avoid arbitration. Presumably it has a no-soda, no-Uncle Tom clause.
• Free agent catcher A.J. Pierzynski is not that interesting to the club (good).

Angels Kremlinology

Anybody wondering whether the Angels considered Eckstein expendable need have only observed his absence on the large posters above the main entrance in 2004.

You are a GM of a club with more talent up the middle than you know what to do with, including not one, not two, but three highly touted minor league shortstops. None of them are more than two years away from the big club. Faced with a dimming but still serviceable shortstop in David Eckstein do you --

1. Hold on to Eckstein for another year? This makes some sense if the title of your 2005 plan is "Let The A's Win -- Again". It's not implausible; consider that the Angels already have come out and said that they're relying on McPherson to pick up the offensive slack at third -- he's batting third or fourth.
2. Start Izturis? Little Cesar's little brother has so far shown a good similarity to his older brother, so much so that Cesar shows up as one of his PECOTA comparables. If it's true, that's better than what his 2004 projection had to say, essentially that he was a replacement-level player, something his -0.4 VORP this year didn't do much to dispel. This isn't a real option, and considering his glovework has been widely described as inferior to his brother's, we're probably better off not even thinking about this in public -- Stoneman and/or Scioscia might try it.
3. Sign Orlando Cabrera for four years? Of the two Cabrera brothers, Orlando is unquestionably the better one. Here's his last-three-years numbers:

   Year   AB        Line      VORP
   ===============================
   2002  563  .263/.321/.380  22.7
   2003  626  .297/.347/.460  49.8
   2004  618  .264/.306/.383  14.7
   

Now, since the Angels picked eligible batchelor number 3 to the tune of $32M/4 years, we have to assume there was some reason for this. They are almost certainly overpaying for Cabrera's 2003, and for some reason think he's going to repeat it. I submit this is unlikely to happen. PECOTA agrees with me, tagging him with a high degree of confidence -- 54 similarity score -- that he's not going to see his 2003 ever, ever, ever again. Well, besides the when-pigs-fly theory of team construction, how do you justify this signing?

• The Angels believe free agent pitching is insanely overpriced, even at the middle tiers, and have given up acquiring any in this way. While this is true, it's also the case that this does not justify also overpaying for middle infielders when you have a glut of them in your farm system. That is what farm systems, in part, are supposed to do: insulate you from stupid overreactions of the free agency market. (It is also a reason why the Yankees have had to overpay virtually every free agent they've signed in the last three years, but that's a subject and a study for another day.)
• Cabrera will bring superior defense. Unfortunately, this also doesn't hold up. Looking at his Baseball Prospectus DT card, his defense has been stellar previously, but it's slipped in the last two years, and he is now slightly below average.
• The Angels do not think Eckstein will last more than 80-90 games next year. This is a more serious concern. Eckstein played 142 games this year, up from last year's 120, but his size and ongoing health concerns make him a big question mark into next year. While putting Chone Figgins in at shortstop is a decent temporary solution, with Alfredo Amezaga gone, the Angels lost their primary immediate insurance against Eckstein spending time on the DL. Kennedy's absence in the middle infield exacerbates this problem as well.
• None of the shortstops in the minors will be ready before late 2006. This I also believe is likely true. None of Collaspo, Aybar, or Wood will be in a position to help the Angels in the near term, with Collaspo probably nearest to stick-a-fork-in-'em time.
• Eckstein's average fell too low, too long. This also strikes me as plausible. 2004 marks the second year in a row his batting average was below .280 by the end of the season. For a team that lives and dies on average, this was just intolerable.

Unfortunately, this means that the Angels are overpaying in both years and dollars for the privilege of having Orlando Cabrera on their team. By every sabermetric means I can find, save for durability, Eckstein was and could be expected to be Cabrera's equal. Since Eckstein was non-tendered, he becomes a free agent and the Angels can get nothing for him.

Beyond the contractual issues, however, is the looming crisis at the top of the batting order. The team is now wholly dependent on Chone Figgins' somewhat streaky bat. While I like Chone, we saw last year how dangerous that dependence can be, especially considering the Angels don't know from OBP.

Finally, the Angels surrender their first-round draft pick because Cabrera is a type A free agent. This, friends, is the signing that just keeps on taking. Frankly, I'd have rather we signed Eckstein for two years and waited for Collaspo.

Update: More on this at Chronicles, Studes wipes the floor with Stoneman for failing to sign just-as-good yet practically free Placido Polanco, and David Pinto concurs, saying

... there's nothing you're getting from Cabrerra that you wouldn't get from Eckstein. And now the Angels are paying a whole lot more money for it.

Oy, vey.

Beane's unloading of two of his three big guns has the baseball blogging world all a-twitter, and rightly so; it's arguably the biggest pair of moves he's made since Moneyball came out, and probably the biggest since they started winning, for that matter. One interesting comment on this subject came today from this AN thread:

I listened to a Billy Beane interview on KNBR this afternoon. He stated that you cannot always assume that players will perform as well in the future as they did in the past. He went on to say that the A's have to take risks to stay competitive. The implication to me is that if the two Aces he traded would have recurring injury problems next year, their trade value would be greatly reduced. He was not willing to take the risk that these pitchers would have problems for the third year in a row. It was a better risk to trade.

This was in response to a Hardball Times sidebar post by Studes, which I will quote in full here:

You're sitting around your Oakland office, looking at all the shenanigans in the Free Agent market. Now, you don't have enough money to pay a free agent, but you've noticed that starting pitchers seem to be in high demand this offseason -- overvalued, even.

Plus, you currently have three of the best young starters in baseball on your staff, and you know you're likely to lose at least two of them in the next two years. What do you do?

The real life Billy Beane has decided to move boldly and take advantage of the situation. Beane traded Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder within the space of two days this week, picking up two good young starters (Dan Meyer, who could be an ace, and Dan Haren), a good bullpen arm (Kiko Calero) another fine young arm who still could develop into a star (Juan Cruz) a nice young outfielder (Charles Thomas) and an "A" prospect in catcher Daric Barton. Seems to me that this is another example of Billy Beane taking advantage of market inequities, proving that there are many ways to play Moneyball.

Indeed it does. Brian Gunn of the defunct Redbird Nation writes a guest column at THT loudly decrying the trade from the Cards' perspective:

The Cards gave up a lot of talent -- a future #3 pitcher in Danny Haren, a live bullpen arm with a lifetime ERA+ of 149 in Kiko Calero, and a teenage hitting prodigy in Daric Barton. If you're going to give up all those goodies, you better make sure you get someone sturdy and dependable in return -- if not a sure thing, then a reasonably sure thing.

Mark Mulder is not my idea of a reasonably sure thing. Before August 2003, he certainly was. In fact, from 2001 to 2003 he was one of the ten best starting pitchers in baseball. But he hasn't been able to finish out either of the last two seasons. He went down with a stress fracture to his hip two years ago, and then last year simply fell apart. His ERA after the All-Star Break was 6.13, and only one of his starts down the stretch could be called even moderately decent.

That's a curious fit for a team like the Cardinals, who seem to be building primarily for October. Even more curious is why Walt Jocketty would trade one of his two best pitching prospects (Anthony Reyes being the other), his best hitting prospect, and one of his best relievers for a guy who looks to me like Matt Morris' twin brother.

Count Aaron Gleeman among those who approve of the deal -- though you might not know it to listen to him right away. He thinks Beane has set the team back six years -- but six years ago was 1999. The A's started their extended run of wins the very next year. Similarly, Bryan Smith at Wait Til Next Year is enthusiastic with his praise from the opening title of his blog entry "Grade 'A' Rebuild", quoting Peter Gammons latest column (which I can't find) as claiming Beane now has enough cash to make a run at J.D. Drew.

But as with yesterday's Murray Chass column in the New York Times, there's lots of dissenters, especially once you leave the ranks of A's fans. Mike Carmanati of Mike's Baseball Rants comes down hard on the trade as Billy Beane finally jumping the shark:

So what the net result of what the A’s done? They have traded three-fifths of their rotation for a single-A catcher, one unproven starter, one proven to be not that great, an overpriced 30-year-old catcher who’s good but not great, a swingman, and a backup infielder. Thomas for Cruz is a push. Calero’s a decent upgrade over Lehr. Rhodes for Cruz may even be an even-up trade.

I think Beane is just getting a free ride from the sabermetrically minded. I think of the four postseason transactions he’s made each is worse than the last. I see now justification for the Mulder one when he has two years left. The only question I have is if it’s worse than the one the two teams made to bring McGwire to the Cards. It’s all especially bad when you consider how close they were to contending in 2005. I guess he could turn it all around with a few more key pickups but it seems that he is still strapped for cash, so he’ll have to get creative.

My verdict is that Beane has jumped the shark, at least that’s how it looks so far.

This opinion, while in the minority, is essentially my own, though I view it to mean Beane thinks he can go back to contending in 2000 -- er, 2006 -- than next year. But everyone waits for the king to fall off his horse. Only one game separated the Angels from the A's at the end of the season. After last year's finish and this year's offseason, I write off no team in the AL West.

Tom having hung my comments out on the yardarm without responding in the manner I requested* -- namely, some actual numerical analysis of the proposed Big Trade -- I feel obliged to deconstruct its latest incarnation, without resorting to cranky name-calling regarding its outcome. Reasonable men may disagree, and we all have the same desire, namely, to see the Dodgers win. For the record, I liked DePo's midseason trades, yet the bulk of its haul -- Penny and Choi -- must certainly be declared less than satisfactory thus far, and thus the trade itself a disappointment, though in fairness, this could not have been known in advance. Let us start with the latest known version of this trade, which no longer includes the Chisox, and thus most resembles the earliest version of the trade, plus the addition of Mike Koplove; to keep the audience at home abreast, a recap:

• From the Dodgers to the Snakes: Shawn Green, Brad Penny, Yhency Brazoban, and RHP Brandon Weeden
• From Arizona to the Yankees: Randy Johnson
• From the Yankees to the Dodgers: Javier Vazquez, C Dioner Navarro, and 3B prospect Eric Duncan, and $3M in cash to buy out Ishii's contract.
• From the Snakes to the Dodgers: Mike Koplove
• From the Dodgers to the Yankees: Kazuhisa Ishii

What The Dodgers Surrender

Shawn Green

PECOTA card (Projected 2005 VORP: 35)
Age on opening day: 32

Year   AB        Line      VORP
===============================
2002  582  .285/.385/.558  65.5
2003  611  .280/.355/.460  36.5
2004  590  .266/.352/.459  34.7

Green's 2002 was far more in line with his previous years than his 2003/2004, but even in today's bull market, he's noticeably overpaid at $16M/year. (ESPN lists it at $16.7M.) Green's 2003 and 2004 campaigns can hardly be classified as anything other than a disappointment, tempered with the knowledge that he played through a shoulder injury in 2003 and recovered from it in 2004. That we could be talking here about the 32-year-old Green could be traded anywhere speaks in some wise to the ability of DePodesta to get trades done.

Green's 2004 PECOTA card shows him with a 50th percentile VORP of 40.4, which was a good bit ahead of his actual 34.7. Next year, it projected him to be closer to three wins (30.0 VORP), but then, most of the comparable players were positive, and if he didn't meet his similarity index threshold at 50 (he has 48 comparables), he came awfully close. And there's ample room for optimism with Green, who had a greatly improved .281/.371/.529 line in the second half of 2004.

Brad Penny

PECOTA card (2005 projected VORP: 19)
Age on opening day: 26

Year    ERA    IP    K/9  K/BB  VORP
=====================================
2002   4.66  129.1  6.47  1.86   3.1
2003   4.13  196.1  6.33  2.46  28.2
2004*  3.15  143.0  6.99  2.47  36.6

*combined Florida and Los Angeles

Outside of his arm injury, Penny should be an interesting pitcher. I say "should" because that injury history has prevented him from realizing his potential, a fact that 2004 underscored in detail. Penny had biceps inflammation and blister problems in 2002; his nerve problems this year, which may or may not have been related, certainly didn't help his reputation of fragility. That DePodesta's so willing to unload the fruits of his midseason trade so soon makes me wonder if more extensive experience with the Dodgers medical corps isn't the reason for the move. Nonetheless, Penny's similarity index of 67 is pretty solid, and PECOTA shows him a 2-win pitcher for the remainder of his career, his outstanding 2003 postseason notwithstanding.

Yhency Brazoban

PECOTA card (2005 projected VORP: 2)
Age on opening day: 24

Year    ERA    IP    K/9  K/BB  VORP
=====================================
2004   2.48   32.2  7.44  1.80  11.7

The pitcher who made Dan Evans' trade of Kevin Brown look like an absolute masterstroke, Brazoban came out of nowhere and racked up a 2.48 ERA with respectable strikeout and K/BB rates, replacing the expensive and aging Mota. Only 24, Brazoban would be under the Dodgers' control for another five years. Relievers, so we're told, are the easiest pitchers to find replacements for, but this Moneyball homily unravels quickly, something the A's discovered this year to their chagrin.

As to Brazoban's future: interestingly, PECOTA assigns him only a 26 similarity index, and tags him as a replacement-level pitcher for his career. But all that means is PECOTA doesn't have a lot of data to work with, and his numbers could go up or down. Clearly, he was a good bit better than replacement level this year, but perhaps Tom's skepticism about his future is more warranted than I initially thought.

Kazuhisa Ishii

PECOTA card (projected 2005 VORP: 5)
Age on opening day: 31

Year    ERA    IP    K/9  K/BB  VORP
=====================================
2002   4.66  154.0  8.36  1.35  12.1
2003   3.86  147.0  8.57  1.39  21.0
2004   4.71  172.0  5.18  1.01  13.2

Ishii was done with the Dodgers after next year whether he pitched or not. Despite my earlier praise for his progress, that same turned out to be ephemeral, and he was not once, but twice removed from the rotation. Still, there are absolutely worse guys pitching in the majors today (viz. Aaron Sele or Shawn Estes), but their numbers rapidly dwindle. For a team far out of contention, Ishii may make an adequate three or four spot rotation pitcher, and therefore the Yankees should be able to flip him for something useful.

Brandon Weeden

Age on opening day: 21

Update: Weeden was acquired as a throw-in to the trade that brought Yhency Brazoban and Jeff Weaver to the Dodgers. He's got good but not great strikeout rates, and adequate control. Josh Boyd in BA's 2003 chat on the Yankees ranked him outside the organization's top ten, a pretty dubious distinction. BA previously thought he was the best prospect taken in the 2002 draft by the Yankees, a multisport athlete in high school. He doesn't represent a significant throw-in based on subsequent performance, but might make a useful reliever at some point.

What The Dodgers Get In Return

Javier Vazquez

PECOTA card (projected 2005 VORP: 42)
Age on opening day: 28

Year    ERA    IP    K/9  K/BB  VORP
=====================================
2002   3.90  230.1  6.99  3.65  29.8
2003   3.24  230.2  6.99  3.65 	52.9
2004   4.91  198.0  6.82  2.50  23.1

Early this year, I chided the Angels for failing to pick up the best available pitcher in the trade market, Javier Vazquez. Paul DePodesta clearly isn't letting an opportunity like this get away, not with the Yankees' sudden case of stomach cramps with their latest "pitcher of the future". There's a lot to be happy about here: Vazquez returns to the NL, and more, to Dodger Stadium, the rejuvenating properties of which have been remarked upon many a time. Over his career, Vazquez has had good to excellent strikeout rates, and even in Yankee Stadium, his strikeouts only declined a little, though his walks ascended. This may be a side effect of having Boston in his diet too often, as well as playing in the AL. (Update: and as The Fourth Outfielder observes, getting him the hell away from the poisonous effects of Mel Stottlemyre won't hurt, either. I had considered this but not written about it earlier myself.) Certainly, the Dodgers would have to be optimistic they can restore him to his previous level of performance at Montreal.

Dioner Navarro

PECOTA card (2005 projected VORP: 2)
Age on opening day: 21

Year   AB        Line      VORP
===============================
2004    7  .429/.429/.429   0.8

As I mentioned earlier in my initial, knocked-to-the-ground review of this proposal, Navarro was Baseball America's number one Yankees prospect in 2003, but bad things happened in 2004 and he slipped to number five. That isn't to say he's a bad prospect, but there's reasons to question how useful he'll be at the major league level. However, the Yankees are famous for nothing if not avoiding giving rookies playing time, so there's room for optimism, too. I don't necessarily agree with Tom that Navarro's status as a Yankee farmhand makes him underrated; if anything, the Yankees are all the more desperate to pawn off some bits and pieces for real live major leaguers, hence DePodesta's demand that the Dodgers receive at least two prospects from the Yankees. And PECOTA agrees with me, projecting Navarro to be only a league-average player, with the caveat that his similarity index is 15, an unusually low number. And, of course, this all before his poor showing this year.

Eric Duncan

Age on opening day: 20

Duncan's only played in single-A, but Baseball America liked him so much they named him the Yankees' best prospect, as well as their most significant trading chip. He's off to a great start: compare his .260/.351/.479 line in single-A Battle Creek with James Loney's .276/.337/.400 line at the same point, and you get the impression of a young power hitter with a good amount of patience. Insert the usual caveats about the kid not playing above single-A, your rookies may vary, etc.

Mike Koplove

PECOTA card (projected 2005 VORP: 15)
Age on opening day: 28

Year    ERA    IP    K/9  K/BB  VORP
=====================================
2002   3.36  61.2   6.71  2.00 	12.8
2003   2.15  37.2   6.45  2.70  12.5
2004   4.05  86.2   5.71  1.49 	12.9

Koplove, whose name sounds like either a porn star's or a guy who likes old movies, is, believe it or not, about as valuable by VORP as Yhency Brazoban. The problem is, he's done it in more innings than Brazoban, which means his MLVr is accordingly lower. He's projected to be about a win-and-a-half guy over his steadily declining career; his K/9 rate dropped nearly a whole point last year while he started giving up a bunch more walks. This is not a good sign, but translated from the hitter's park that is the BOB, he might be tolerable for a year or so in Chavez.

What Do It All Mean?

Dodgers

Lost:

               VORP
Player      2004  Proj.
=======================
Brazoban    11.5    2
Green       34.7   35
Ishii       13.2    5
Penny       36.6   20
            ---------
Total       82.8   62

Gained:

               VORP
Player      2004  Proj.
=======================
Vazquez     23.1    40
Koplove     12.9    15
Navarro      0.8     2
            ----------
Total:      36.8    57

So on the surface, this is an enormous loss for the Dodgers. The following points apply:

• Brazoban is much younger than Koplove and accomplished a lower ERA in fewer innings. Furthermore, PECOTA is very certain about Koplove's projection, but very uncertain about Brazoban's. This is most assuredly not a wash as far as talent goes.
• There's really no replacement for Green in this trade, and plenty of reason to believe that Green's 2005 will be much more like his second half 2004 than his first half.
• The prospects are exactly that, and will need additional refinement -- in Young's case, years of refinement -- before becoming major-league ready. However, with Navarro, they get an important piece the team lost when DePo traded Koyie Hill.
• Vazquez is slightly younger than Penny, but I like his upside -- i.e., a return to his career before his brief stint in pinstripes -- much more than Penny's. Vazquez's health is also much better than Penny's, and should continue to be.
• Vazquez causes the Dodgers to spend a bunch ($9M), but he's a better bet than most of the free agent pitchers available this year. This is more than offset by moving Green ($16M) and Penny ($6M). Brazoban and Koplove are a wash, dollar-wise, and getting the Yankees to take -- let alone pay for -- Ishii is nothing short of a miracle.
• Update: Even though the projected numbers are much closer than the 2004 numbers, I would be very skeptical about the projected numbers; I believe them to be unreasonably conservative, particularly with regards to Brazoban and Green.

I wouldn't pull the trigger on this deal as written; DePodesta is right to so far hold up this trade before completing it, unless either he's (a) written off 2005 and/or (b) decided to make this a fire sale. So far, the noises are that DePo isn't writing off 2005, but then, that's what Beane's saying about moving Hudson and Mulder.

Update 12/21/04: Updated the Dodgers list to include throw-in Brandon Weeden.

---

*Yes, I know about this subsequent post, but if you're going to bag on me for failing to analyze the trade, be prepared to do it yourself first, buster.

Despite an earlier New York Times report, the Dodgers are holding up the Randy Johnson trade, according to mlb.com. Without saying anything specific, the obvious holdup is the signing of free agent J.D. Drew. The Dodgers also apparently are in pursuit of Devil Rays RF Aubrey Huff, RHP starter Orlando Hernandez, and RHP starter Eric Milton. The Times today says DePodesta is not only waiting on the Drew signing, but possibly an additional trade -- perhaps the earlier rumored Chisox version of the trade -- or a similar deal with other teams:

"It's probably up to us at this point," he said. "Unfortunately we don't do all this in a vacuum. Others aren't working on our timetable."

He also isn't concerned about the perception that he might be overwhelmed.

"All that matters to me is determining what is the best thing for the Dodgers and our fans," he said. "I can't venture into something this significant with all that uncertainty remaining."

Well, at least we can say he's learned from the Charles Johnson fiasco. It also might be a ploy to extract more from the Yankees.

Also: DePo inclined that the choice at 3B will be relative newcomer Antonio Perez.

Murray Chass, the New York Times baseball writer, opines that Moneyball was a mere fantasy; the unpleasant reality is that small market teams can do only so much for only so long before the dollars catch up to them.

THOSE of us who do not subscribe to the "Moneyball" approach to baseball, the theories laid out in the book that celebrates Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics, have been quick to point to the real strength of the Athletics in recent years, the pitching triumvirate of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito.

And then there was one.

Beane, a talented general manager whatever his philosophy, traded Hudson to the Atlanta Braves last Thursday and 48 hours later traded Mulder to the St. Louis Cardinals. In making those deals, Beane contributed to the likelihood of those teams repeating as division champions.

...

Beane did not trade Hudson and Mulder because he discovered a flaw in the team's makeup. He did not trade Mulder because he staggered to an 0-4 record and a 7.27 earned run average in his last seven starts, dooming the Athletics to their final resting place - one game behind the first-place Anaheim Angels.

Why did Beane shred his vaunted starting rotation?

"We needed to," he said in a telephone interview yesterday.

"We're constantly playing a shell game here," he added. "The status quo was not within our means. We need to be in a situation where our team is getting progressively better, and the status quo could have put us in a position where we'd be worse."

And indeed, it's arguable that Beane did the right thing. Blez saw the bell curve, and the cost of keeping the big three together just didn't make sense, not without an injection of talent from the lower levels, the raw fuel of an Athletic baseball club that has to be recognized as one of the most consistent winning machines ever, yet also -- to its fans -- one of the most frustrating ever because of their failure to succeed at higher levels.

Could any three younger members of the starting corps evolve into Hudson, Mulder and Zito?

"The three guys we had together were pretty historical," Beane said. "If they became half of those guys, they'd be pretty good pitchers. But it's not fair to make that comparison. We had a pretty historical group. Nevertheless we feel they can be very good big league pitchers."

You have to respect what the A's have done; Harden has become a decent regular, and Bobby Crosby earned his ROY award. The questions before the house:

1. How well will the A's do this year? Have they established themselves as a contender even despite the loss of two-thirds of their troika?
2. If they aren't really a contender, how soon will they return to the postseason?