6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

The Dodgers will open their 2006 season at home against Atlanta. Once again, the computer has screwed the Dodgers by packing the last month of the season with a road trip against Milwaukee, Chicago, and New York, with the last homestand against the Giants occurring in August.

As if you didn't know. The official press release is here.

And, oh yeah, I heard the Angels won an important game or something.

Via BTF, the Seattle Press-Intelligencer has an article up about whether Bill Bavasi will get the boot, presiding, as he is, over two back-to-back 90-loss seasons.

CEO Howard Lincoln is not entertaining questions on the subject of Bavasi's future, but there is no hard evidence to suggest the Mariners plan to terminate his open-ended contract at the end of the season. Scattered speculation outside the organization, however, holds that he has lost too many games for a man possessing a payroll that exceeds $90 million. Other industry peers believe the Mariners were going to age and lose in 2004 and 2005, regardless of Pat Gillick's successor.

"Honestly, most people in baseball would tell you that he went into a bad situation," said Tony Tavares, the former Angels president with whom Bavasi disagreed, leading to Bavasi's resignation in Anaheim. "He had a lot of money committed to players who weren't performing. A lot of people I know feel like he needs more time to put his plan in place."

I'm reading Ross Newhan's history of the Angels, and skipping ahead a bit for various reasons to the point in time where Bavasi enters the picture. It's a fascinating read.

Man, was I beat last night, but that turned out to be a good thing as I've been waking up at 3:00 in the morning and been unable to get back to sleep. I feww ... wefweshed!

Day Game? What Day Game? Angels 7, A's 1

Completely, totally, and utterly missed this one. Colon, apparently, was on, and Zito wasn't. When Zito can command his curveball, he's brilliant, but when he can't, oops, and yesterday was an oops day. Of course, the whole team's sore, and Eric Chavez, who was out of the lineup yesterday, may need surgery in the offseason, which maybe contributed to their weak offense.

Recap

Pwn3d: Diamondbacks 3, Dodgers 2

Odalis "Calcium Man" Perez, on the fan support despite the lousy product on the field this year:

"It is hard," said Odalis Perez, who started and allowed one hit while striking out five in four scoreless innings. "Just to go outside and say goodbye to the fans, it's like breaking my heart because the support we got all season was amazing. It's like I want to cry."

But I'm sure he didn't, though maybe a few in the stands felt like doing so. Why Tracy felt obliged to let Broxton in there to give up the winning run, I'll never know, but as Charlie Steiner pointed out in the broadcast last night, this marks the first time in Los Angeles Dodgers history that one team has beaten them at home eight times over the course of a season. 1992 represented the team's nadir, but this season is going to end with one of the team's worst records ever.

Recap

LaRoche Bloggeth

Andy LaRoche, blogger? Now they have to be dragooning the minor leaguers.

Scratch The Rookie Excuse

Jim Tracy, grinding the gears in his defective memory:

"We have 14 rookies out of 32 active players in there ... I can't remember a team that was playing in October that had that many rookies."

Well, let me introduce you to this team called the Atlanta Braves, with a roster containing thirteen rookies. There are good farm systems, and there are great farm systems.

Player	Year Drafted
Blaine Boyer	2000
Kyle Davies	2001
Joey Devine	2005
Jeff Francoeur	2002
Chuck James	2002
Kelly Johnson	2000
Ryan Langerhans	1998
Anthony Lerew	2001
Andy Marte	2000
Macay McBride	2001
Brian McCann	2002
Pete Orr	1997
Brayan Pena	2000

Sanity check: most of their rookies were selected in drafts one year or more ahead of the Dodgers' best prospects.

God, We're Idiots

The Dodgers set a home season attendance record, 3,558,593, and don't you feel silly for showing up when they're losing alla time? No? There's always next year, I guess...

Normally I couldn't give a rat's left testicle about Lasorda's blog, but today's entry is interesting in the extreme:

I speak for the entire Dodger organization when I say we feel badly that we could not give you a championship season, which you so deserve. Due largely to injuries, we were denied of our goal, which was winning. The most important goal we have every year is winning for our fans, because, as I have said many, many times, we have the greatest fans in all of baseball.

Frank and Jamie McCourt, along with Paul DePodesta, want to win. We are all ready for a long off season of hard work, putting a balanced, winning team together for 2006. ...

May we infer, by omission, that Jim Tracy wasn't interested in winning? Or is it only the case that Lasorda's an old guy?

The Chicago White Sox defeated Detroit 4-2, thereby clinching the AL Central.

Chicago clinched because Cleveland can at best tie the White Sox, and no team can finish second in another division with 96 wins or more. If the AL Central is decided by a tiebreaker, it would go to the White Sox, who beat the Indians 11-5 in the season series, and Cleveland would be the wild card.

Poor Mike Carminati: having retracted his earlier discussions about Billy Beane jumping the shark, the A's had to go and lose the division. I guess that's the penalty for making ballsy if incorrect predictions -- I'd hate to think what people might say about me if I were to make such bold -- and happily wrong -- predictions.

Studes writes about September momentum and how well it correlates with victory in the postseason. The answer: it depends, though the last three years, the Angels, Marlins, and Red Sox have all had hot Septembers, thus giving the impression that it's important. But looking at the last ten years, the team with the best September actually lost more in October; Studes recommends reading The Baseball Savant for a possible peek into the postseason. The Savant picks the Angels to win the first round against the Chisox.

Relax, Don't Do It: A's 6, Angels 1

As per my earlier comments, Scioscia predictably trotted out the scrubs today to give some guys rest, which meant -- to my surprise -- Anderson sat while every position save shortstop and the mound was manned by a backup player, and even Cabrera didn't last but one at bat. Unsurprisingly, this below-replacement-level offense failed to score much, the only run coming on an RBI single from Juan Rivera.

The real story is the lineup going into the playoffs, and it seems Mike is determined to get Colon another start today, even if it's on only three days' rest. Not. Good. Also in the What-Were-You-Theeenking-Man department, it looks like the team is leaning toward Josh Paul as a third catcher. It's hard to know what to say: is the team's depth at other positions so shallow that this is a meaningless slot anyway? Or have they lost their minds?

Recap

Diamondbacks 4, Dodgers 3

Ah, Yhency. Yet: creativity in the lineup? Aybar batting leadoff? Choi's not in the game, again, but played in three consecutive games? Wow. Should we give that man a multiyear contract?

Well, no, and not just for the reasons Jon suggested. Tracy, insubordinate, forced his arcane prejudices on the team, neutralizing the front office's plans. For that, he owes the fans, Paul DePodesta, Frank McCourt, and everyone else in the Dodger organization a full apology for his role in the unnecessary losses this team suffered because of his selfish indulgence. Instead, he issued self-serving evasions and, exhibiting enough gall to be divided in three, sprung a demand for a multiyear contract in such a way as to thumb his nose at anyone calling him on his faults. It's a high-stakes poker game which Tracy figures he can win without anyone calling his bluff, his only losing season attached to a doctor's bill. That's arrogance, and inexcusable arrogance at that. Buh bye, Jimbo. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Recap.

Padres 9, Giants 1

Dave Ross gets to go to the postseason for two years in a row. If that doesn't tell you something about how lousy the Padres are, and how weak the NL West has been, I can't spell it out better. But -- Dave Freakin' Ross is hitting .313/.353/.438 with the Pads. It's been that kind of year.

They smashed the Giants. Barry Bonds was an arthritic old man out in left, he looked in pain every minute on the basepaths, and the Pads held him to two meaningless singles before he was pulled in the eighth for a pinch hitter. Brian Cooper, the journeyman on the mound for my first encounter with the magic tickets in 2004, has had better success this year and had a 1.62 ERA coming into today's game. Alas, it wasn't to last, as the inning started off with a right field single and a bunt single. Joe Randa came up and was credited with a bunt single, but in fact should have been called out on a sacrifice. This loaded the bases, with consecutive RBI singles by Ben Johnson, Robert Fick, and Mark Loretta. It was almost as comical as the time I saw Cooper, unless you were the Giants. Ah, at least the Pads got to clinch at home, although they were the last division winner to do so in the NL.

Recap

Reader Daniel Zappala wrote me yesterday with a pointer to this discussion of what might happen were the Yankees to sign The Flash:

First of all, once they sign The Flash, the Yankees would be wise to restructure their team entirely around him. To do anything less would be foolish and counterproductive, as I shall demonstrate below.

By way of review, the Flash is a man of ordinary dimensions, but possessing one important superpower. He can run at the speed of light. To a baseball team, this is a huge advantage, but only if managed prudently.

To begin with, when the Yanks are in the field, all other position players (except the pitcher and catcher) must congregate along the baseline, and step out of play the instant the pitch is delivered. This is to avoid death or serious injury via collision with The Flash once the ball is in play. The Flash can handle all fielding himself. It doesn't matter much where he positions himself, but short center field would do nicely.

Obviously, his speed will permit him to field any fly balls, and most ground balls, before they hit the ground. Because we can assume that he has only normal amateur catching abilities, it is presumed that he will drop some of these balls, at which point he merely needs to pick them up and run to first base. At the speed of light, this should eliminate the likelihood of ANY hits by the opposing team, other than balls that leave the stadium. (Unlike Superman, the Flash cannot fly, so the Yanks will be vulnerable to home runs. As a strategic move to counteract this, the Yanks would intentionally walk most power hitters. Virtually all of them will remain on base through three outs obtained by the Flash's amazing fielding abilities; most will be doubled off base as The Flash fields the ball, and races to second then first. )

This overall strategy would probably mean that the average number of runs against the Yankees would be less than one. A two-run game would be a rarity.

But what about when the Yanks are batting? The Flash is only one of nine men in a lineup. How much damage can he do?

Overwhelming damage, as you will see, though his value will be limited so long as the opposing managers did the appropriate strategic maneuvers.

Obviously, if he is pitched to with the bases empty, the Flash hits a home run nearly every time he gets up. Why? Because all he needs to do is lay down a bunt, and he will be around the bases before the ball even hits the ground. (This is even allowing for a slight but necessary voluntary diminution of speed; at the speed of light, the Flash's trip around the bases would not be visible to the umps, so he would have to slow himself to the point where he was a visible blur. This is not a problem; a one-second trip around the bases would suffice in most all situations.)

So the canny opposing manager (Lou Piniella, for example) will walk The Flash whenever he comes to bat with the bases empty. Moreover, by walking the batter in FRONT of the Flash when necessary, the opposing manager can make sure the Flash very seldom gets up with the bases empty. (Obviously, Joe Torre would bat the Flash first in the lineup, so that every game he gets at least one bases-empty at bat. Even if he is walked, he will score any time a Yankee batting behind him hits into fair territory - he will score on a ground ball, and he will "tag up" and score on a caught fly ball. The Yanks start almost every game 1-0.)

But let's say in midgame you have The Flash at bat with no out and a runner on first, via a strategic walk. The Flash's speed is diminished as a weapon, since rules say that if he passes another baserunner on the basepaths, he is out. Suddenly, for all intents and purposes, The Flash is forced to run at human speed, should he get on base.

Now, if I were Joe Torre, if there was one out or less, I would instruct the baserunner to simply attempt to steal, and if he were successful, to keep running, until he was tagged out. Then the Flash can do his thing, and there is a certain run.

In addition to this huge advantage (pretty much guaranteeing at least four or five runs a game, even if no other Yankee gets a hit) I think we should remember that with The Flash handling all fielding chores, the Yanks do not have to worry at all about the fielding competency of its other players. Torre can simply stack the lineup with guys who can hit.

The average Yankees win, with the Flash, would be by a score of roughly 7-0, sometimes 7-1. It would be a big story when they lost a game; it would probably lead the network news.

I can only commend him to the Angels, and hope Bill Stoneman signs him long before the Yankees know he exists.

Update: I have to disagree with the author when he claims that only home runs would evade The Flash; what is a home run but a long flyball? For The Flash, a homer would merely be another exercise in timing, zipping to a position just three or so feet in front of the plate to await -- milli- or microseconds later -- the ball to jump off the hitter's bat. In fact, The Flash could immediately dispense with most pop flies in such a manner. The problem, of course, would be that batters would, perhaps correctly, object that any such balls would otherwise be foul tips. Certainly, the umpires would have no way of knowing.

From this point of view, then, The Flash's ideal position would either be on the mound -- assuming he could be taught to pitch -- or behind the plate at catcher. Assume he takes the mound. As a pitcher, he would be in an ideal position to field any balls that actually came off a batter's bat. But let us extend this a bit further. Since The Flash has superhuman speed in his legs, mightn't he also have superhuman speed in his arms as well? And since, as Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens taught us, so much of pitching is in the hips and legs, an area we already would assume is part of his super-portfolio, wouldn't that give him a supersonic fastball? Such a ball would be unbelievably intimidating; not only would each pitch generate a sonic boom, but any batter unlucky enough to actually make contact with it using a normal wood bat would find himself with a long splinter, and possibly, broken bones in the hands and wrists as the impact traveled up the handle if the ball were to hit anywhere but on the sweet spot.

This presents a problem, however. Certainly, it seems unlikely a normal human catcher, no matter how tough, could hang onto an 800 MPH fastball. With kinetic energy increasing as the square of velocity, the impact would be sixty-four times that due to balls thrown by the game's hardest throwers, such as Brad Lidge or Bobby Jenks; equipment would have to be toughened to withstand the repeated pounding, not to mention simply making it possible for a catcher to even receive such a pitch.

This of course brings up another point: what if The Flash were to issue a wild pitch with his hypersonic heater? The effect would be that of an artillery shot, impaling whatever or whoever it impacted, catcher, hitter, or possibly damaging the park itself. Even wearing extraordinary protective gear, a catcher would risk life and limb, as he would have no way to react to a fastball arriving at the plate 50 milliseconds after it was thrown. (Of course, this also suggests that umpires could never call a balk on The Flash, simply because his windup would be imperceptible save through slow-motion cameras.) And not only the players would be at risk: a pitch hitting the screen would certainly penetrate it, killing whoever it struck immediately and brutally.

So the danger of The Flash pitching is clear; we can't let him do it. What about catching? That seems more likely; The Flash would then have, at least, a clear means within the scope of the current rules to ply his trade on the diamond without harming anyone, so long as he is forbidden to throw to second. That's okay, as no team would dare run on him; by the time the opposing runner got a third of the way off first base, The Flash would merely show up at second and tag him out, perhaps from behind to show a little panache.

With The Flash behind the dish, moreover, he also has a legitimate means for catching foul tips uncontestable by the umpires and batters alike. He would extend the career of any pitcher throwing in front of him, as virtually no batted balls would ever make it off their bats. Bert Blyleven, say, could come out of retirement to pitch major league games. It would be the greatest catchers' ERA in the history of the game.

The Mariners' 2006 tentative schedule has been announced, and they will open April 3 against the Angels. Interleague schedules pit the AL West against the NL West, and so the M's will play the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

In yesterday's game notes, I talked a little bit about the Eric Chavez contract but forgot to mention the most important reason for bringing it up: it adds another question mark to Beane's resume. I don't have historical contract data available, but it also bears repeating that Jason Kendall is signed through 2007 at $10M/year. If what Sheehan said about Chavez is correct, that's $33M committed over the next three years to a guy who doesn't handle pressure situations well they'll have to think about.

Part of the resentment of the Angels by fans of other teams is the perception that the Angels are buying their way to a title. The Mets spent a lot of money in the offseason, too; those incremental wins are the hardest to acquire, and the easiest to misspend on. After his brilliant 2004 postseason, Carlos Beltran was the class of that free agent group, yet what has he done for New York? The Finley contract may be a bad one, as Mike might be tempted to play him at inopportune moments, but we ought to at least be giving a momentary hat tip to Bill Stoneman for not getting sucked into a Boras bidding war. Seven years of Beltran is at least four too many, especially at those prices; if you're going to overspend, make it a short contract. Stoneman's far from perfect: both Anderson's and Cabrera's contracts are also bad, but for different reasons, Anderson because he's aged much faster than anyone thought possible, and Cabrera because he's blocking all the infield prospects in the minors (update: not to mention he stunk it up at the plate for half the year at least). But Stoneman should get credit for what he's accomplished; with this division win, I think it's pretty safe to raise him to the elite class of major league GMs.

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So now that the Angels are done with the division race, they can stop the chitter-chat about moving Bart up for Thursday's start, and position their rotation. We may expect to get another look at Joe Saunders. I, for one, expect to see extra starts by Anderson and Finley, both, and for the same reason, namely that both of them claim to need the at bats to stay in practice. Fair enough; the losses can't hurt us, save when it comes to deciding home field advantage, and I doubt that will make a difference anyway. Erstad -- we hope -- will lose playing time to Kotchman, and Figgy should get a little less playing time at third as Quinlan mans the hot corner.

Congratulations From The LAist

Right here:

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, on clinching the AL West. While we at LAist admit to a strong Dodger bias, and changing the team name didn't make us think the Angels were an LA team, we acknowledge them as a SoCal team. And we can't help but admire the work that Arte Moreno has done.

In less than three years, Moreno has helped turn the Angels into media darlings in LA, as the press has pounced on every Dodger in management from Frank McCourt to Paul DePodesta. Whether or not their criticisms have been fair (and we believe many of them haven't), Moreno has taken advantage of people like Bill Plaschke's appetite for an alternative.

Resignations From Catfish Stew

Ken Arneson, impressionist.

Things You Didn't Know

Sean, who likes to keep track of such things, will be pleased to note that with Frankie's save last night, he passed Troy Percival for second-place in single-season saves, with 43.

Behind the tollbooth at ESPN, we learn that Joe Kennedy is 0-8 lifetime against the Angels. "Only three other active pitchers are 0-8 or worse against one team: Jamey Wright against the Astros (0-12), Troy Percival vs. the Indians (0-9) and Darren Dreifort vs. the Padres (0-9)."

Barry's Pushing His Knee Too Hard

Via Baseball Musings, it looks like Barry's knee isn't holding up well under stress.

With two outs in the second inning and nobody on for the Padres, Bonds did something that probably impressed his teammates even more than the four homers he has hit since his return. He ran full speed into the left-center gap and caught an Xavier Nady drive. Bonds seemed to aggravate his knee injury on the play, limping badly as he tried to stop himself. He couldn't, until he got to center field.

Bonds labored to jog in from the outfield. His reward was a sea of high-fives as soon as he reached the dugout steps.

It's said that Lou Gehrig knew it was time to retire when his teammates applauded him for making routine plays on ground balls...

In the absence of the Minor League Scorebook posts, some notes about minor leaguers from here and there:

• MILB.com has a good, short article about Willy Aybar:

  "Willy, since he's been up here, has shown discipline at home plate that Jerry said sometimes wasn't there (in Triple-A)," Tracy said. "He's taken very good at-bats. There's been several at-bats where he's gone very deep in the count ... (and) he's taken significant walks."

• Poor Howie Kendrick: they're forcing him to write a blog. Weren't his performances in Rancho and Arkansas enough to keep him away from these kinds of duties? Update for Stephen: that was intended to be ironic sarcasm. I have no idea whether he likes doing this kind of thing or not...
• Another MILB.com story, this time on top minor league hitting prospects of 2005. No surprise but that Brandon Wood, Kendry Morales, Howie Kendrick, and Andy LaRoche get nods.
• FutureAngels has the Arizona Instructional League Roster and schedule, not the AFL as mentioned earlier.

Aside from the Angels, who clinched tonight --

• The Red Sox split their doubleheader with Toronto, 3-1 and 7-5, while the Orioles hammered Al Leiter and the Yanks 17-9, causing the Sox to go back to a first-place tie in the AL East.
• The Chisox lost again to Detroit, 3-2. Cleveland also lost to Tampa Bay, 5-4, so no movement in the AL Central, where the Chisox retain their two-game lead over the Tribe. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Indians all have identical 92-65 records, and are also all tied for the AL Wild Card.
• The Braves clinched the NL East by slaughtering the Rockies 12-3.
• San Diego finally came up with a win and beat the Giants 9-6, reducing their magic number to two for the NL West. They face two more games against the Giants; a win in any one of those would clinch. The Padres are one game under .500 at 78-79.
• In the NL Wild Card, Houston beat the Cards 3-1. The Phillies lost to the third-place Mets 3-2, putting them two and a half games back.

I forgot to mention something in yesterday's game recap, and that was some apropos comments in Joe Sheehan's Monday Baseball Prospectus column about A's slugger Eric Chavez. Sheehan "came out against the Eric Chavez contract extension, largely because of his ongoing problems with left-handed pitching", but also because he has bad at bats in critical situations.

Plate discipline isn't just about drawing walks. It's about having quality at-bats, all the time, but especially in high-leverage situations. Swinging at the first pitch can fit right in with plate discipline, but the swings have to be good ones. Chavez swing at a ball up in his eyes and popped the ball up for an easy out. Kotsay hit a two-hopper to the second baseman. Those are wasted at-bats for a team that wasted too many last night, and will likely now end up with all winter to think about them.

Chavez was almost a non-factor in this game, going 1-4 with a single run batted in, but that was a testament to Angels pitching as much as it was Chavez having weak at bats, save for his RBI double.

Tonight's game had so many parts worthy of praise: Santana's brilliant six and two thirds, Scot Shields' key out in the seventh that killed a two-on, two-out A's rally, and Frankie making his outs -- home run notwithstanding. The Angels -- let's be honest -- got lucky when Macha decided to go with the struggling Joe Kennedy, because they didn't score a single run on any other reliever. Bengie -- well, everybody owes you a big thank you.

And now it's my turn to be relieved. Congratulations, boys. First team to clinch in the AL. Three years in four -- and both of the last two on Team Moneyball's turf. Sweet, sweet days.

Update: how annoyed must ESPN be that they are nationally broadcasting a throwaway game now that the Angels have clinched?

Update 2: Speaking of TV, as Jim Alexander of the Press-Enterprise points out, how dumb does KCAL 9's deal with the Dodgers look now? While I disagree with him over the merits of Tracy, I do believe the Dodgers becoming a "Wait 'Til 2007" team is pretty accurate, if the farm is what's supposed to save them. Or maybe that's 2008. Or 2009. They'll figure it out one year, I'm sure.

ESPN Box • Recap

Notice the caveats. In no way am I taking this one for granted; the Angels' history of collapse is still quite vivid. If you think I'm engaged in chicken counting, well, sorry, that's not the impression I wanted to leave behind. But for a moment, let me breathe the air of victory on a day the Angels needed one. The battle for tonight lies just ahead.

Jon recently wrote:

So those who have taken the failure for the Dodger farm system to produce a star in 2005 as a sign that it has been overrated have lost perspective on time.

Jeff Francouer. Felix Hernandez. Huston Street. Instead one of those guys turning up, what the Dodgers have is a second baseman playing out of position at third (Aybar), a AA starter they keep irresponsibly pulling up to pitch in the bigs when he's clearly not ready (Broxton), and a fair-hitting catcher who wasn't signed by the Dodgers (Navarro). I'm not saying this is the alpha and omega of player development, but the chronic failures of guys like Joe Thurston, James Loney, the oft-injured Hong-Chih Kuo and now even Edwin Jackson makes me think the Dodgers system is overrated.

But that's not really the strongest argument you could make, so I'll advance a different one. Jon claims that those of us arguing that the team is overrated are being impatient because the really good drafts didn't start until 2002. That could be true, except for one thing: Baseball America's rankings were heavily weighted toward draftees well before that class. Consider the following prospects from BA's annual top ten lists:

2003 Year Signed Player 2001 Edwin Jackson 1999 Reggie Abercrombie 1999 Joe Thurston 2000 Koyie Hill 1997 Alfredo Gonzalez 2000 Joel Hanrahan 2001 Joel Guzman 1999 Chin-Feng Chen

2004 Year Signed Player 2001 Edwin Jackson 2000 Franklin Gutierrez 2000 Joel Hanrahan 2000 Koyie Hill 1999 Reggie Abercrombie

2005 Year Signed Player 2001 Joel Guzman 2001 Edwin Jackson

And yet -- while I don't have the 2003 Prospect Handbook in my library, in 2004 BA ranked the Dodgers system second in the majors, and clearly, this was in large part on the strength of prospects drafted from 1999-2001. If there's been a problem of expectations management, it's in terms of reading and believing BA, when they rate the Dodgers farm system. So our horizons must stretch further into the future. Fine -- but let's be clear about one thing: the Dodger farm system has been overrated based on prospects drafted earlier than 2002.

Belatedly, first, about the Midwest League, containing exactly one Angels prospect, Rafael Rodriguez:

Rodriguez ranked 14th on this list two years ago, then got sidetracked by a tender elbow that restricted him to seven starts in 2004. His violent delivery was the culprit, and when he toned it down this season he stayed healthy and pitched a career-high 146 innings.

There are similarities between him and Francisco Rodriguez, who's no relation. They have the same build and comparable stuff, though Rafael pitches with less intensity. His out pitch is his mid-80s slider, which is saying something considering he also has a 90-94 mph fastball.

If he can't refine his changeup, he'll also wind up in the bullpen. Rafael tries to challenge hitters with his fastball up in the zone too often, which led to rough outings following his promotion to high Class A.

In the Sally League, BA puts two Dodger prospects in the list, with Scott Elbert taking first place:

Scott Elbert: The Dodgers sent Columbus both of their 2004 first-round picks, Elbert and third baseman Blake DeWitt, and SAL observers were impressed with both. Elbert finished the season in such strong fashion—he went 5-1, 1.96 in his final 12 starts—that he earned top billing on this list as an athletic lefthander with quality pitches and enough control to dominate with them.

As the year progressed, Elbert showed increased ability to harness his 88-93 mph fastball and his power curveball with plenty of depth. His curve doesn't have 12-6 break and sometimes has more sweeping action like a slider, but it's a swing-and-miss pitch that locked up even experienced hitters.

His changeup made great strides and is average at times. One American League scout saw command issues with Elbert's secondary stuff and a mechanical breakdown that left him leaving those pitches up in the zone, but the consensus was that he has the athletic ability to refine and maintain a sound delivery.

“He made quick bats look like palm trees through peanut butter,” Greenville manager Chad Epperson said. “He had velocity, mound presence and composure. Early in the year he started to open his shoulder a little, but he cleaned it up, and if he stays in his delivery he has a very bright future.”

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Blake DeWitt: DeWitt didn’t put up flashy numbers in his first full pro season. Instead, he earned the respect of SAL managers by grinding his way through the season, never letting the game get the better of his pretty lefthanded swing.

DeWitt lets the ball get deep and trusts his hands, allowing him to sting line drives to all parts of the park, though he still needs to learn to pull the ball more. He showed the ability to make adjustments, such as better recognizing breaking balls, allowing him to bat .312 over his final 47 games before a late promotion to high Class A. His defense at third base, a new position for him as a pro, wasn’t consistent, and one scout mentioned a move to second base could be in his future.

“I liked his approach and I liked his swing,” an AL scout said. “He has hands that work, but the power always will be a little suspect because of his size.”

Git

A.J. Burnett, who just yesterday was decrying the absence of cheer in the Marlins dugout, today finds himself evicted from the team as GM Larry Beinfest told him to go away, this following a 5-3 loss to Atlanta, for which he, Burnett, was personally responsible for all five runs (four earned) and the loss. He wasn't the only one annoying the club: Manager-for-now Jack McKeon also benched Miguel Cabrera for God-knows-what. With the Marlins eliminated from all postseason play yesterday, they will have plenty of time to figure out what's wrong.

A's Long-Term Danny Haren

Oakland has signed Danny Haren to a four-year deal, terms undisclosed.

Ripko: Dodgers 9, Pirates 4

I was in my office writing the game summary, such as it was, for yesterday's Angels game, when Helen called me into the living room. "You've gotta hear this," she said as she hit Play on the DVR. "This" was one of the Fox guys blabbing about the Angels -- and, oh, yes, in case you were interested in the Dodgers, they played tonight, too, but that'll be later in the complete report, whenever we get around to it. Expecting anything else is squandering the loser's dividend.

Yet. Non-prospect Repko turned in a doozy of a game, tripling twice and cashing in four RBIs. Even Edwin Jackson managed to scratch out a win, getting in five and a third innings on a very uneconomical 95 pitches.

Recap

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As for this, well, I'm not sure, Bob, whether it's an extension of the discussion or not, but you all know my views pretty well by now, I'm sure. Some of those kids need to come up and start producing, and not just in the sense that they can answer "here" when their names are ticked off a roster.

• I forgot to mention it, but Oakland was eliminated yesterday from the Wild Card.
• Thanks to rain and an 11-3 Yankees victory over the O's, the rain-idled Red Sox fall a half game back in the East, and a half game back of Cleveland in the AL Wild Card.
• The Chisox lost to Detroit 4-3, their AL Central lead slipping a half game over the idle Indians, to two games. It's worth mentioning that, despite all of Boston, New York, Cleveland, and/or Chicago likely having to go further to clinch, the Angels would still have reason to want to win, namely home field advantage.
• Houston's 3-2 loss to the Cubs on Sunday stripped another half game from their Wild Card lead.
• A 3-2 win for the Giants over the Pads puts San Francisco three games back with three left to play in the series and six in the season.
• Philadelphia is technically still in the NL East race, but has an elimination number of one. They trail the Astros by a game and a half in the NL Wild Card.

They hate Bonds in Dodger Stadium, chanting "Bar-ree Sucks" at every at bat.

They hate the Dodgers in San Francisco, "Beat LA" the rallying cry almost as universal as "Yankees Suck" was in Fenway.

They hate you when you win.

The Angels got the hate over at AN, watching their dreams of a division title grind down to the barest of spider-silk threads, an elimination number of two now hanging above their green-and-gold squad.

Is it too much to ask, now, in the perverse but plausible logic that only becomes evident after the fact, whether Gene Autry needed to die before the team could really start winning? The history of the team was always "win one for the Cowboy", but the Cowboy could never keep his hands off the wheel long enough to let the team settle on a strategy. Big name free agents? Okay, but which ones? Build from within? And who, and how long to wait? More than the endless star-crossed tragedies of men like Donnie Moore or Lyman Bostock, impatience and vascillation killed the Angels year after year under Autry. Though Disney took a while to figure things out, they did far more right by the team than wrong, even -- finally -- finding not just a good owner but a rich one, one content to let the baseball people make baseball decisions.

For all the bitching I've done lately, I atone, the finish line in sight now, perhaps taking a chance the baseball gods will smite me. They still may. In Oakland, the fans surer of their team's death, stayed away in droves, as Sam Goldwyn said, the A's playing before an announced crowd of 19,347, only 40% capacity. There's a rivalry there -- I know I always fear the boys playing Team Moneyball -- but the casual fans are gone, ennervated by a season that stumbled badly out of the gate, got thrilling in the middle, and once again collapsed down the stretch.

Generosity rules the day. Steve Finley comes up huge with a two-run, game-winning home run that imperfectly echoes his grand slam last year for the Dodgers that decided their 2004 season. Lackey: struggling a bit despite the idiotically wide (and variable) strike zone given by Mike Everitt, yet good enough to hold down the A's to two and earn the win and a quality start besides. Frankie, another recipient of Everitt's area-code sized strike zone, getting a called third strike on a ball three inches off the plate. Scioscia may have complained about Vlad's "double" -- which, from what I can tell, was in fact a fair catch -- but he got it back and more at the plate.

---

We're lucky. No matter what happens, if the Angels get to the victory circle -- and there's every reason to think they will now -- it'll be the third time in four years the team has been in the postseason. How many clubs can say that since the start of the current division structure? Well, the Yanks, Cleveland, Oakland, and Minnesota in the AL. In the NL, Atlanta, of course, St. Louis, and San Francisco. It's a fairly short list, but this was a team -- a franchise -- waiting to be uncovered. With all the talent the Angels have in their minors nearly ready to contribute, and very, very soon, it's going to be an interesting decade. These, kids, are the good old days. Right now.

ESPN Box • Recap

From today's UTK:

• I've received no less than three e-mails from people purporting to be third-base coaches. One has been confirmed and I'm working on the other two. The interesting part is that they all said nearly identical things regarding Johnny Damon. To paraphrase, they think that Damon's weakened throwing really damages the Red Sox pitching. First, they believe that Damon will be tested at nearly every opportunity. It's the second point that intrigues me. They told me that pitchers will be affected nearly as much. At key points, they believe that pitchers will nibble, trying to keep the ball from going to Damon, which will affect pitch selections, pitch counts and corner defense. The Sox would be well served if they used groundball pitchers more, especially in pressure situations.

  Keith Foulke is not going to be in those pressure situations. He'll have surgery sometime next week, probably on both knees. If the Sox end up watching October rather than playing, it will be interesting to see how many old-schoolers come out raving about the importance of the closer, a position that didn't exist in its current form when most of them played.

• The Angels make for a nice test case. How much does one team rely on any one player? In 2004, Tom Gorman did some great work on how players are replaced when out with injuries and how much a team lost (or gained in some cases) in terms of production and wins during injuries. While he's still hard at work on perfecting the system and figuring out the pitching side of the equation, we can still take a look at Garret Anderson and note just what effect his back problems might have on the team. By shifting to DH, Anderson pushes Juan Rivera into the lineup, which isn't bad--Rivera has a materially similar MLVr. Where it gets costly is when Anderson cannot DH, forcing Steve Finley back onto the field with his negative VORP. Anderson's availability in some capacity allows the Angels to keep their best lineup going. Even with expanded rosters, teams still need their best players actually playing. Anderson will be spending a lot of time with [Angels head athletic trainer] Ned Bergert this week and into the playoffs.
• If Rich Harden can throw 98 mph, how can he be hurt? You might ask Kerry Wood the same question. Wood, you might remember, threw his last pitch of the year at that speed, then was on the operating table the very next day. Harden doesn't face surgery; it's Curt Young and Ken Macha who face tough decisions about how to use Harden. The A's will actually make the decision on the field. If the team can close the gap on Monday, Harden will likely get the start on Tuesday, shadowed by another starter, likely to be Joe Kennedy. Even with a simulated game and a reduced arsenal--Harden isn't throwing change-ups, which raises some interesting questions about his mechanics--no one seems to know long Harden can go or how effective he can be.

  I saw Harden throw in last night's 6-2 loss to Texas, and while he did have some control issues -- he tossed a couple well wide of the plate -- he also didn't give up any runs. The Angels could have some real problems if he can start on Tuesday; best to get the win first thing, but I'm sure Mike wouldn't ever tell the boys that.

This just in: former Angels pitching coach and 1954 All-Star pitcher Marv Grissom passed away, from a long illness.

"One of my favorite recollections occurred in 1961, during the Angels' first spring training in Palm Springs," said Newhan. "Relief pitcher Ryne Duren decided to cap off a night of closing bars by chipping golf balls off his pitching coach's motel windows at 3 a.m. Finally, Grissom opened the door and shouted, 'Hey, Ryno, got sort of an early tee time don't you?'"

Second, I stumbled across an old story about Lyman Bostock, the Twin and Angel who was killed in a freak shooting, by way of a followup post appearing in Touching All The Bases.

On Sept. 23, 1978, Angels outfielder Lyman Bostock was murdered. It is one of the most tragic chapters in baseball history. On the final day of his life, a sunny Saturday afternoon, Bostock went 2-for-4 in an Angels' loss to the Chicago White Sox at Comiskey Park. After the game and with a rare night off, he made the short drive to Gary, Ind., to visit his uncle, Thomas Turner.

At approximately 10:30 p.m., Bostock was riding in a car with Turner and his godchildren, Joan Hawkins and Barbara Smith. Bostock had known the women for 20 minutes.

A car pulled alongside. Barbara Smith could see her estranged husband, Leonard Smith, was driving. She told Turner not to stop the car. He sped through two red lights, but was forced to stop at a busy intersection.

Leonard Smith jumped out of his car and walked toward Turner's Buick. He was carrying a 12-gauge shotgun. No words were exchanged. Smith opened fire through the back window. Bostock was hit in the right temple. He crumpled to the floor, blood gushing from his head.

Three hours later, one of baseball's most appealing young stars was dead. He was 27 years old.

Bostock was also famous for committing to give back a portion of his salary after his first year with the Angels -- on a then-astronomical $2.25 million, three-year contract -- was a disappointment. He didn't live to give out the money.

The daily BTF sophistry following a particularly noxious San Francisco Chronicle story about Bonds interview I praised earlier in the month:

Bonds and MLB have defrauded their customers -- of course that's Congress's business. That there are more urgent priorities for Congress is a given, but it would behoove Bonds to STFU about that particular subject, and let someone else -- disinterested, preferably -- to make the point.

And that's the heart of the whole discussion: Bonds has absolutely no standing to make a point like this.

Wrong, Andy (see post 28). He has every bit as much right to object and say so in public, just as the customers of speakeasies objected to Prohibition. This is what passes for argument on BTF these days. Gad.

Quote, Unquote

Ray Ratto in the San Francisco Chronicle:

"We've been through this both ways," Beane said as he snuck peeks at both Red Sox-Orioles (a game that meant nothing to him) and USC-Oregon (a game that meant slightly less). "We've won on the last day (in 2000), and the year we missed (2004), we were up three with nine to play.

"In fact, I think the Angels kind of benefited a little bit from that, because they were just grinding it out day by day, while I thought we might have been in a little bit of a 'Let's hurry up and get these games out of the way' frame of mind. We had (Mark) Mulder, (Barry) Zito and (Tim) Hudson (the last weekend for a series in Oakland against the Angels), and I think the Angels might have come in and said, 'However it works out.'"

Jim Tracy, on 28-year-old rookie Bryan Myrow:

"I have seen him take competitive at-bats with each and every one he has taken," Tracy said. "I have also been just as impressed with his appearances as a pinch-hitter and the approach he has taken with those at-bats. He hasn't taken a bad at-bat since he has been here."

Tim Wallach on Jayson Werth:

"I think he needs to not swing for a little bit," Wallach said. "He's not getting down in time and not getting ready to hit on time. Everything is flying open, and he has been working on that. I'm absolutely still convinced he can be a very good player in this league."

Bart, on his performance yesterday:

"My back bothered me a little bit and I was leaving the ball high in the strike zone," said Colon, who has been hampered by lower-back issues of late. "They were hitting the ball hard the first few games [of the series]. But my back had nothing to do with not executing pitches."

A. J. Burnett, on the cheer and gaity in Florida:

"I've got one more start here, and that's all that matters... It's depressing around here," he said. "There's nothing positive around here. There's nothing positive on the staff now."

Burnett is a free agent at the end of the year, and considered the top pitcher in a weak class.

USA Today Postseason Picks

It's that time of year: with only a week left in the regular season, it's time for down-to-the-wire picks. USA Today reporters Gary Graves and Jorge Ortiz place their bets:

• AL East: Red Sox
• AL Central: White Sox, barely.
• AL West: Angels
• AL Wild Card: Indians
• NL East: Braves
• NL Central: Cardinals
• NL West: Padres
• NL Wild Card: Astros

Their reasons why are pretty interesting. At this point the only entertaining race in the NL is the wildcard, but all of the AL races are fairly close, with the possible exception of the AL West, a race it seems AN has given up on.

Roster Notes

• Barry says that if his knee requires more surgery, he'd retire.

  "I wouldn't bother. I'd call it quits," Bonds told the Tribune. "Wait till October next year, then I'd quit. ... A normal person can't go through that and still come back and play. You'd have to wait a year at least."

  And here I thought Barry was not a normal person...
• Jeff Weaver won't make his last scheduled start if the season finale against San Diego has no bearing on the division "race".

We Don't Want It, You Take It

All weekend long, we've been waiting to call our friends Jen and Jo down in San Diego to congratulate the Pads for winning the division. And all weekend long, the Padres have been losing to the Diamondbacks. Now they get four at home against the Giants, with staff ace Jake Peavy followed up by Adam Eaton. If they don't win those two games and clinch, I may have to send my congratulations over to the Idiots.

Last dance
Last dance for love
Yes, it's my last chance
For romance tonight

-- Donna Summer

Bart didn't have much working today, and so the Angels lost, ending their eight-game winning streak. Maybe that's beside the point. It's time to reflect on the long season, the success the Angels have had, and the tasks yet undone that need completion in Oakland and Texas. With the A's 6-2 loss to Texas in Oakland, the Angels' magic number is four.

So I was at the park today, and yes, I took pictures. Enjoy.

ESPN Box • Recap

September 25, 1986

September rapidly came and went as the Angels flew past any of their competition. With only one losing month all year -- a 10-17 May -- the Angels had arrived at the doorstep of what would prove a 92-win season, their best since 1982. With only Texas providing serious competition all year, the Angels opened up a three-and-a-half game lead at the end of July, kicking in the afterburners with a 15-11 August that included a month-ending seven-game win streak against Baltimore, New York, and Detroit that found them increasing their lead by two games. By September 24, a 14-7 stretch had kicked it into another gear, boosting the team's division lead three more games, to eight and a half. The Angels were about to cruise into the postseason.

But a big series with Texas loomed, and given the franchise history, everybody was publicly cautious. In the final year of his Angels contract, and, some speculated, his last year in baseball, Reggie Jackson didn't want to push matters:

"I didn't want to clinch against Texas," he said. "I wanted to do it before. If you do it against your closest (competing) team, they get to see what winning is like. I don't like showing a team what it feels like. It can only make that team want it more."

Cleveland drew first blood that Thursday, a "businessman's special" day game played in front of 22,684. Sophomore Angels starter Kirk McCaskill started well, retiring the first five Indians in a row, but with two outs in the second, Pat Tabler hit a two-out single to left. Up to the plate came rookie right fielder Dave Clark, with a grand total of six hits in 26 at bats. He promptly blasted a 1-0 pitch over the center field fence, his first career home run, giving the Tribe a 2-0 lead.

It wouldn't last. In the third, the Halos turned on knuckleballer Phil Niekro, still plying his trade at the amazing age of 47. With two outs, Ruppert Jones got a gift double when he blooped a flyball into shallow center that evaded Brett Butler. Niekro then tossed a wild pitch on ball four to Brian Downing, allowing Jones to advance to third. Consecutive singles by rookie sensation Wally Joyner and Doug DeCinces tied the game at 2-2. In the seventh, rookie shortstop Cory Snyder hit a solo shot to center, but that would be it for Cleveland.

The Angels, however, were far from done. The Tribe started the eighth by pulling Niekro, replacing him with reliever Frank Wills. That proved decisive, as Mr. October -- playing in his 19th September -- blasted an opposite-field two-run shot that followed a leadoff single by DeCinces. The scoring didn't end there: with nobody out, Bobby Grich reached on a double, and Dick Schofield pushed a sac bunt that somehow the Cleveland infield misplayed, getting Schofield aboard at first and Grich to third. Wills then threw a pickoff toss to third -- with nobody covering! The ball scooted down the left field line, scoring Grich, with Schofield tearing around to third. Bob Boone singled him in with career hit 1,500.

The Indians, two games over .500 coming into the day's proceedings, were clinging to respectability, and had seen enough of Wills, bringing in Ernie Camacho. His first act was to give up a sac fly to Gary Pettis, the final run of the game, which ended 6-3 Angels, with Donnie Moore getting the save in the ninth, facing only four batters.

Gene Mauch, who had predicted 90 wins would take the AL West before the season, turned out to be a little shy of the actual total, as the Angels would merely take the division with that number. "I don't care about being right. I just care about being first", Mauch would say after the game. The Angels would, in fact, clinch on the very next game, an 8-3 blowout of the Rangers at home in front of 46,677.

---

Of course, tragedy and death followed that champagne-drenched celebration. The scapegoating of Donnie Moore for his one-out-away miscue in ALCS Game 5 was yet to occur, but two far more ominous problems haunted the Angels. One was the pending free agency of their core players. Nine Angels -- Bobby Grich, Doug DeCinces, Brian Downing, Reggie Jackson, Bob Boone, Rick Burleson, Don Sutton, Ruppert Jones and Doug Corbett -- were eligible for free agency. Most would come back, in fact, all but Jackson, who left for a victory lap with Oakland, and Corbett, who finished his seven-year career in Baltimore with a 7.83 ERA and an 0-2 record.

The other issue was age. The Angels entire outfield was over thirty. Boone, their durable catcher, was thirty eight. Bobby Grich would retire. Replacing Rob Wilfong with Mark McLemore to a starting role at second in 1987 (though the latter was to become more famous as a super-utility guy in the vein of Chone Figgins) would help the age problem, though not the offense. At DH, Jackson's exit actually proved beneficial. Brian Downing, who left the outfield permanently in 1987 to take over the DH spot for Jackson, ended the season with an OPS+ of 137, versus the 116 Jackson gave them in 1986. And of course, 25-year-old Joyner had his career year.

But that was pretty much the end of the good news. The rotation exploded in '87, with McCaskill requiring arm surgery in April, returning in June and then re-exiting the rotation in September. Don Sutton was 42, his ERA rising nearly a whole point from 3.74 to 4.70; worse, he was burning up the bullpen. Mike Witt's ERA would rise from 2.84 to 4.01. John Candelaria made a nuisance of himself off the field and would get traded to the Mets. By the end of the season, the Angels got so desperate that they started a crash project to turn long reliever Chuck Finley into a starter, an effort that proved remarkably successful. Finley would go on to start 467 games in his 17-year career, winning 195 of them.

---

As always, thanks to Retrosheet, Baseball Reference, and the Los Angeles Times for research assistance.

Dayn Perry isn't impressed with Mariano Rivera's claim to the Cy Young, and thinks it ought to go to Johan Santana again:

There's no disputing Rivera's excellence in his role. However, a closer's innings deficit relative to a starter is just too much to overcome. When you're working anywhere from 120-150 fewer frames per season, there's just no comparison.

... We wouldn't even be having this talk if Roy Halladay had stayed healthy. On a per-inning basis, he's easily been the best starter in the AL this season.

... All things accounted for, Johan Santana should be your 2005 AL Cy Young winner. Santana boasts substantial advantages in R/G, park-adjusted R/G and K/BB ratio, and he's also within hailing distance of the lead in HR/9 and innings. He's the clear choice.

... with this sweet photoessay about the the A's diminishing hopes following the Twins series.

Roster Notes

• Rich Harden may be available as early as Sunday for bullpen work. He supposedly hasn't got his changeup back. If they're rushing him, it could be a positive thing for the Angels.
• Even though the O's have reestablished contact with Sammy Sosa, his season is over. (Like, duh.)

Races

• The most interesting race of all (outside the AL West, natch) went nowhere as Freddie Garcia 4-hit the Twins in an 8-1 pounding. Amazingly, only two home runs were hit in the game, a solo shot by Joe Crede and a three-run dinger by Jermaine Dye. Do we credit Dye, who hit his 30th home run of the season (very near to equalling the career high of 33 he got in Kansas City) with finally coming out of a slump? Is Comiskey II/U.S. Cellular that much of a hitter's park?
• Meantime, Cleveland pasted the reliably paste-able Royals, 11-4, so no division movement.
• There wasn't any movement in the AL Wild Card, either, with Boston beating Baltimore 4-3.
• In the AL East, the Yanks lost 7-4 to the Blue Jays, and are tied with the Red Sox for the division.
• In the NL West, the Snakes surprised the Padres with five runs in the eighth, delaying the Padres' clinch another day. The Diamondbacks still have wispy hope, with an elimination number of two, but they'd just about have to win all their games from here on out.
• Atlanta got a game closer to clinching by beating Florida 6-1. The Braves' magic number is three.
• In the NL Wildcard, Houston beat the Cubs 8-3, taking a two-game lead over the Phillies, who lost 3-2 to the fifth-place Reds. Incidentally, it looks like Houston will be able to play their final season series at home as the storm spared most of that city.

With so many races so close, for the American League, I like the Angels (I guess, though things could turn around in a hurry) in the West, the not-necessarily-obvious choice of the White Sox in the Central, and the Indians for the Wild Card. It's a coin flip in the East, but I'll give a teensy edge to the Yanks given their play of late. Given the records of these teams, the Angels could hold up well to any of these guys save maybe the Indians. In the National League, all the division races are basically settled, leaving the wild card. With Philly slipping and the Astros continuing to cling to a two-game lead, I'll pick them to clinch in their last series of the year, at home against the Cubs.

UTK Quick Hits

From today's UTK:

• Here's something you probably don't think about: apparently the contortions Jason Giambi needs to shag all of Jeter's bad throws are banging up his already torqued back.
• Larry Walker's availability continues to be in question as he took another needle to the neck, full of cortisone.
• Now that the Giants have joined the Dodgers -- or nearly so -- in the also-ran pile, Jason Schmidt may get shut down. The Giants have a 2006 option on him, and exercising that will depend on his health.

My projection has been shot all to hell, the Dodgers are eliminated from the postseason, and they got there by losing an embarrassing game to the Pirates. If ever there were a low water mark for this franchise since coming to Los Angeles, this has to be it.

ESPN Box • Recap

Jesus X. Christ was I getting nervous. I was throwing things while Washburn was throwing balls and getting hit like a piñata. The nightmare scenario of another loss to Tampa Bay dancing before my eyes like Marge Schott in a Vegas chorus line, after 29 pitches Washburn somehow managed to get out of it.

And then he didn't allow a single run for five more innings.

Meantime, with Mickey Hatcher taking an enforced day off, the team collected ten hits and seven runs. Time for a new hitting coach? Nah -- how often is it you get a "cheerleader, prankster, lunatic, retard, and coach all wrapped up in one"? Hell, even Steve Finley got a three-run dinger. There's no way I can condone putting him in the lineup on a regular basis:

You people would find a turd in a scoop of vanilla ice cream.

-- Sean

Damn right, and if Scioscia's previous usage patterns are anything like consistent, that turd will appear in the lineup of all four games of the A's series, causing the Angels to flounder.

Magic number is five, people. Postseason tickets go on sale Monday. If they actually make it -- well, d-a-a-mn if this isn't the first time in franchise history they've been to the big dance two years in a row. And speaking of numerical fun, Sean reminds us that yesterday's game was the 3,500th franchise victory, with the franchise winning percentage drifting to .4894 "and rising". You betcha.

ESPN Box • Recap

Richard already dispensed with the Bob Nightengale/USA Today version of the Angels-after-Konerko rumor, but given its regurgitation in a semi-reputable paper, one wonders whether the source of said rumor isn't Konerko's manager.

Behind the tollbooth at ESPN.com lies a pretty good story about former Giants closer Robb Nen and how his career ended the same night the Angels' World Series win began. With Anderson hitting a bloop single to left that Barry Bonds misplayed, allowing Chone Figgins to advance to third and Anderson to get to second, Troy Glaus came to the plate, and Dusty Baker went with his reliable closer:

Troy Glaus, the Angels' Hoss of a third baseman who has three home runs in the Series and is one-for-two on the night, steps in. This is the closer's moment: Head-to-head with a bruising bat and the game, and the championship, on the line. My stuff against yours, no quarter and no holds barred. This is the time when Nen reaches back, not just to the reserves of strength in his arm, and not just to 300-plus saves worth of experience over a 10-year career, but all the way back, to the lessons his dad, former big-leaguer Dick Nen, taught him about always going hard. "He told me, it must have been a thousand times, 'let everything you do show your respect for the game,' " Nen says. " 'Don't cheat yourself, and don't cheat your teammates.' "

His first pitch is a cut fastball tailing out and away for ball one. His second is a slider, also outside, but Glaus hacks at it anxiously and the count is even at 1-1. The third pitch, another slider, cuts two feet outside, and Glaus, chastened by the last swing, holds back.

Two-one. Hitter's count. Enough with the slider; Nen is coming in and going all-out.

"I knew Glaus was sitting dead-red, but I had to throw the inside fastball," he says. "I couldn't stand the idea that later I'd think maybe I hadn't thrown as hard as I could in that situation." He fires. The ball starts off inside, but it fades when it should bite. It comes out over the plate.

Nen sees the flight of the ball and winces.

Glaus tracks it and tattoos it.

His double, over the outstretched glove of Giants center fielder Kenny Lofton and off the wall, scores two. The Angels take a 6-5 lead.

That, of course, was the end of Nen's career, the last pitch he would ever throw in a game that mattered following two strikeouts later, full of "nothing but a pitching shoulder full of torn labrum, torn rotator cuff and a whole lot of want-to". Desire is only ability's ghost.

As a footnote: not to get all weepy-eyed over Glaus -- I still think letting him walk was the best thing for the franchise -- but is there anyone on this team right now besides Vlad who could credibly hit three home runs in a short series?

The title, of course, coming from Barry Labrock's snarky intro on the SCSR. Dumb? Mean? Did he forget where he was? Whatever, the question is, which is worse: being fourth place in the weak NL West at 68-85, or 62-92 and in last place in the appreciably stronger NL Central? As Helen keeps reminding me, the fourth-place Cubs, their 76-77 record transliterated to the NL West, would be in second place in the division only a game behind the Pads. And what might the Dodgers' record be if they had to face the Cards eighteen times a season?

Regardless of those hypotheticals, the moral is that the Pirates and Dodgers are frighteningly close to the same level of ability. If you believe that the Dodgers don't have a plan and that they've ceded their credibility, well, welcome to the next two or three years. If, on the other hand, you're with Jon in believing that implementation is not the same as plan, the Dodgers have some hope, though the number of holes to be filled is staggeringly large. As well, DePodesta needs to apply his foot cleanly to Tracy's ass and either (a) lay down the law on the regular lineup, or (b) give Tracy a glowing recommendation and a one-way plane ticket to some city whose baseball team is in dire need of a manager who "knows how to win", such as Cincinnati, say, or Pittsburgh.

ESPN Box

Four games up. Of course, the usual caveats apply.

I don't have a whole lot to say about this game except that I saw doom from the moment that Byrd didn't have much (again) against the D-Rays. Gregg bailed him out very well, Shields had a brilliant eighth, and Frankie had an unusual, stress-free ninth.

Thank you, Casey Kotchman. The Angels magic number is six.

Update: Now that the A's have their obligatory loss (attendance 33,402) out of the way, Blez & Co. are unnecessarily freaking out. This was the one they were likely to lose, though I suppose you could say that Bobby Crosby stranding four while collecting only a meaningless single must have been pretty demoralizing. They got their loss out of the way early, and so tomorrow and Sunday things get interesting.

Update 2: In case you missed it, Joe Borowski -- once a stalwart of the D-Rays' bullpen -- gave up the lead last night in the eighth, about the worst place to give it up in the enemy's ballpark. JoBo's 0-4 with a 5.73 ERA in September, and one cause might be steroids. Helen says the rumor around Chicago was that he took steroids during his rehab, and now that he can't take them without the possibility of getting caught, their effect has finally worn off. Either that, or his surgically reconstructed shoulder has turned into a pumpkin.

ESPN Box • Recap

Remember Michael Abreu, the Cuban prospect the Red Sox signed for $425,000? Not so fast: looks like he's aged a bit, and was really born in 1975, making him 30. That four years is a big difference, and the Sox have voided his contract.

Mickey Hatcher will serve his one-game suspension Saturday. He was suspended for "inappropriate actions and comments" during the September 8 game against Boston at Fenway.

September 23, 1979

My partisanship shows here: I was a junior in high school, and expecting the Dodgers to win their third straight pennant. That they only finished third and with a losing record, to boot, did not diminish my interest in the team, nor did it make any difference in any interest I might have had in following the Angels, on this day 84-71 coming into the game. At the All Star break, the Angels earned a two-game lead over the AL West going into the All Star break when second baseman Bobby Grich blasted a two-run shot into the construction trenches being dug to expand the stadium for football. Yankee manager Billy Martin blamed the winds for Grich's dinger against Ron Guidry, the losing pitcher despite a complete game:

"He got the ball up in the jetstream," said Yankee manager Billy Martin in a stunned Yankee clubhouse. "The ball takes off."

"Well," said Grich smiling, "tell him that jetstream is all the weightlifting I did last winter. That's the jetstream."

The Angels beat the Yanks 5-4, with a come-from-behind victory that presaged the Rally Monkey; after hitting the home run, Grich, who had driven in all five runs and was about to appear in the All Star game, had already walked into the clubhouse, but the fans would have none of it, demanding a curtain call. When, five minutes after giving it, the crowd still wouldn't let up, he made another appearance.

It was a rare good year for the Angels. By September 22, the Angels had extended their division lead to three games over Kansas City and Minnesota, with Texas falling back to six games behind thanks in part to a 3-1 win the previous day by the Angels over the Rangers. On this Sunday, Dave Frost, having a career year in wins and starts, would toss one of the best games of his brief tenure in the bigs, a six hit, one-run complete game door-slammer against the Rangers that the Angels would take 6-1, eliminating the Rangers from the AL West. Frost was on that day, throwing 91 pitches total, 63 for strikes, prompting manager Jim Fregosi to say

He's just one hell of a competitor. ... He's been somewhat of our stopper all year long. Being as how he was the fifth starter coming out of spring training, I kind of think he's done a hell of a job ....

After the first month of the season, his control's been phenominal. He pitched one inning -- I think it was the seventh -- when he didn't throw a ball. You talk about a ball-strike ratio of 1 to 3, that's some kind of job.

What was especially impressive was the fact that Frost had to sit out the prior twelve days due to a sore pitching elbow; previously, he couldn't even get breaking pitches over the plate, and had to rely exclusively on his fastball.

Third baseman Carney Lansford, who hit a three-run shot in the fifth, had spent a lot of the season whiffing, though he was far from unproductive; with 76 RBI and 18 homers, Lansford hit .289. Like everyone else, he was getting tired:

"I've got close to 650 at bats," Lansford said. "I've never had more than 453. That's a big difference. My arms are getting a little heavy. I'm using a much lighter bat now than I used the first part of the season and it feels like it weighs 10 pounds.

I've never played anything close to this (his appearances in 151 games are surpassed on the Angels only by Don Baylor's 156). I could use a day off but there's no way I'd ask for one 'til we clinch it."

Grich, too, was sanguine but steady about the team's prospects:

"We're not cocky at all," said Grich, smiling. "Our winning percentage isn't that good that we can be cocky. Too many things have happened this year.

"We can't take anything for granted, like we've got it in the bag, because we don't. Kansas City's always played well here. We can't be counting them out. We've got to keep a cool head 'til we clinch it. Then you can party all you want."

The next day, Nolan Ryan went for the Angels against the Royals, pitching a five-hit, three-run complete game, beating Kansas City 4-3, all on right fielder Dan Ford's bat. George Brett, upon whose impressive .329/.376/.563 line the Royals rested much of their offense, said of Ryan that

I've faced him for six years and it's not that you're scared but you don't walk up there with the same confidence you have against everybody else. His fastball just puts everybody else's to shame.

The next year, Brett would hit .390, as close as any man had come since Ted Williams to hitting .400. But in 1979, the Royals wouldn't quite have enough, and the Angels would, clinching two days later. They would lose the ALCS to the Orioles 3-1, paving the way for more years of frustration.

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Thanks as always to Retrosheet, Baseball Reference, and the Los Angeles Times for research assistance.

Roster Notes

• Via Athletics Nation, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Rickey Henderson wants to retire as an Athletic, and Billy Beane is willing to give him a one-day contract for the purpose.
• In that same article, the A's are close to long-terming Dan Haren, for four years and $11-$13M.
• Duchscherer continues to have back spasms but hopes to be available for the upcoming Texas series.
• Red Sox closer Keith Foulke has been shut down for the season.

Twins 4, White Sox 1

In eleven innings, no less, with newly appointed closer Bobby Jenks giving up three. The Chisox have lost 10 of their last 14, and with Cleveland beating Kansas City 11-6, Chicago's once-commanding lead is down to a game and a half.

Speaking Of Hibernation...

See you when the playoffs start, whether or not the Angels are there.

Hurricane Rita

The proprietor of Lone Star Ball lives -- or until recently, lived, until he evacuated the city, that is -- in Houston. I extend my heartfelt sympathies to everyone in Hurricane Rita's path, and hope it won't hit Houston.

The Astros, who are directly affected by the hurricane, have spent recent days battening down the hatches at Minute Maid Park, lashing down the roof, protecting the windows, and getting telephone and computer equipment stored securely away from rooms with windows. The Astros remain undecided on where they will play their final series, against the Cubs:

"Our primary objective is to play in Major League stadium, and hopefully your own," Purpura said. "If at all possible, you try to play your games at home, but it depends on the severity of what happens."

Round Rock could be problematic from a seating standpoint. Including seating on the outfield grass berm area, the Dell Diamond has a capacity at about 15,000, well below the more than 40,000 seats that would consititute a sellout at Minute Maid Park.

It's possible that the Cubs could host both series, with the Astros getting home field advantage on the last series.

Jon, on Dodger offseason priorities:

On a secondary level, the Dodgers need things like some bench augmentation, but I don't think I'd worry too much about the bullpen.

Could we maybe move bullpen depth up the ladder just a smidge now? Surrendering a game-winning home run to the Snakes' weak-hitting third baseman -- only seven dingers prior to tonight's game -- isn't that kind of weak in itself?

The Dodgers' elimination number from the pathetic, wretched NL West is two.

Recap

Wins don't get bigger than tonight's. With AK and Benjie leading the way, the team's got a solid lead going into the Tampa Bay series, this time to be played on the Angels' home turf. The A's play the Rangers over the weekend; don't expect anything less than a sweep, but if the Rangers do manage to get a win, great. As we've seen here, the Rangers' bullpen is a thing of shreds and patches (twelfth by ERA in the AL), and so any wins they get will be precious.

Though I cringed when I read Finley's name in the lineup, he did get a clutch walk in the sixth, allowing the inning to continue and eventually for the Angels to get ahead. The real embarrassment was the five runners Cabrera stranded, but that's more a question for Mike. The lineup's been a puzzlement all year, and Cabrera in the two hole is no better or worse than a half-dozen other bad lineups we've seen. And, hey, a clutch double from Kotchman.

With the three-run lead in the division, the Angels have the biggest lead in the AL, an amazing thing. I figure the Angels can take two of three from Tampa Bay, and if Texas can squeeze one from the A's (Kenny Rogers, who has a streak against the A's, is scheduled Friday), it would take the Angels' magic number to five going in to the Oakland series. A split in Oakland and all it would take is a single win against Texas, and the Angels clinch the division. Barring a sweep by Oakland, or wildly differing outcomes in the weekend series, the season will actually be decided in Texas.

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Postscript: Good, not great, game by Santana, but considering the last time he pitched against Texas, it was a big improvement.

Postscript 2: The grousing about lousy attendance (another game with less than 15,000 at the gate?) continues unabated in Oaktown, yet I recall some trash-talk from various and sundry about how the Angels are "frauds". I wonder now; has anyone bothered to look into Beane's management of high-dollar-value contracts? Wasn't Jermaine Dye a big contract for the A's, only to turn into fairy dust once he got the dough?

Postscript 3: 22 over .500. That's a season high, if I'm not mistaken, and called getting hot at the right time.

Recap