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Friday, November 30, 2007

Meta: Time-Warner Screws Me

Look, I know that the $50/month we're paying to Time-Warner Cable isn't a princely amount, but is there some reason we can't get reliable Internet service? This morning as of about 7:00 am the connection went dead as Garret Anderson's bat in the postseason, and next thing I know I'm on the phone with a TWC zombie telling me the earliest they can get somebody over is Tuesday. Tuesday! (The TV part of the cable install went well -- for half the channels, but many of the HD channels and all the music channels are dead.) I ran over to our nearest Verizon store and got the latest Kyocera EDO adapter for my MacBook Pro, and voilà, I'm back on the Internet. At least, my laptop is; much as it's a cool box, I still prefer my Dell's keyboard. At least I can share the network.

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Thursday, November 29, 2007

The Horror. The Horror.

I've seen horrors... horrors that you've seen. But you have no right to call me a murderer. You have a right to kill me. You have a right to do that... but you have no right to judge me. It's impossible for words to describe what is necessary to those who do not know what horror means. Horror. Horror has a face... and you must make a friend of horror. Horror and moral terror are your friends. If they are not then they are enemies to be feared. They are truly enemies. I remember when I was with Special Forces. Seems a thousand centuries ago. We went into a camp to inoculate the children. We left the camp after we had inoculated the children for Polio, and this old man came running after us and he was crying. He couldn't see. We went back there and they had come and hacked off every inoculated arm. There they were in a pile. A pile of little arms. And I remember... I... I... I cried. I wept like some grandmother. I wanted to tear my teeth out. I didn't know what I wanted to do. And I want to remember it. I never want to forget it. I never want to forget. And then I realized... like I was shot... like I was shot with a diamond... a diamond bullet right through my forehead. And I thought: My God... the genius of that. The genius. The will to do that. Perfect, genuine, complete, crystalline, pure. And then I realized they were stronger than we. Because they could stand that these were not monsters. These were men... trained cadres. These men who fought with their hearts, who had families, who had children, who were filled with love... but they had the strength... the strength... to do that. If I had ten divisions of those men our troubles here would be over very quickly. You have to have men who are moral... and at the same time who are able to utilize their primordial instincts to kill without feeling... without passion... without judgment... without judgment. Because it's judgment that defeats us.

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Dodgers To Play Last Two Weeks Of Spring Training In The Cactus League

Tony Jackson reports that the Dodgers will spend their last two weeks of 2008 spring training in the Cactus League. "[W]hen the Dodgers do finally announce this, just humor them and pretend to be surprised, OK?" This can't be playing well back in Vero Beach.

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Round Numbers Everywhere: Vin Scully Is 80!

With Jon recently making it to 40, Vinny has doubled him up at 80. Many happy returns.

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Loving The Unloved: Fred McGriff As Hall Of Famer?

Via BTF, Mac Thomason considers whether ex-Dodger Fred McGriff deserves to be in Cooperstown:
8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

McGriff meets 47.9 percent on the Hall of Fame Standards Test, which is a pretty good total, just slightly below the average (more below the first base average). He scores at exactly 100 on the Hall of Fame Career Monitor, on which anything over 100 is supposed to signal a likely Hall of Famer. There is a tendency to hold contemporary players to a higher standard than that, but this probably shouldn’t hold to players like McGriff whose career is centered pre-1993.

His Black Ink (9) and Grey Ink (105) scores are poor for a Hall of Fame candidate at an offensive position, as he had relatively few league-leading seasons or seasons among the league leaders. He won two home run titles, but his only other official league-leading season was in games played in the strike-shortened 1995 season.

McGriff was a near-total bust for the 2003 Dodgers, appearing in 86 games and hitting a woeful .249/.322/.428, only posting good numbers in May (.290/.371/.538); but expecting a 39-year-old to hold up for 500+ at-bats was wishful thinking on Dan Evans' part. Even if he had hit well, it probably wouldn't have made that much of a difference, anyway, considering that the Dodgers finished second (85-77) to a 100-win Giants club.

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Robothal: Angels To Extend Vlad

Terms unknown, but Ken Rosenthal says the Angels will extend Vlad Guerrero:
If the Angels land Marlins third baseman Miguel Cabrera, it will give them enough offense to trade center fielder Gary Matthews Jr. Yet, even though Matthews has been displaced in center field by Torii Hunter, he remains valuable to the Angels due to the physical questions surrounding Vladimir Guerrero and Garret Anderson.

Manager Mike Scioscia prefers to rotate his DH, and Guerrero, 31, started only 108 games in right field last season. That number could drop further next season — Guerrero would benefit from cleanup procedures on his right shoulder and right knee, but is reluctant to undergo any type of surgery, industry sources to say.

Opponents no longer are afraid to run on Guerrero — his assist totals have dropped from 13 to eight to seven to five over the past four seasons. He often has difficulty stopping when chasing flyballs down the right-field line. His release isn't the quickest, and his throws are frequently inaccurate.

Angels owner Arte Moreno, however, plans to extend Guerrero's contract to bring it more in line with Hunter's, sources say. Guerrero will earn $14.5 million next season and the Angels hold a $15 million option on him for 2009. Hunter is earning $18 million per season under his new deal.

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Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Arte Finds It's No Fun Fest Trading With Larry Beinfest

Arte Moreno is letting his displeasure be known when it comes to the shifting tea leaves of the Marlins' front office:
"I've felt we had a deal with them twice," Moreno said of the Marlins, who apparently cut bait and decided they needed more in exchange for the 24-year-old slugger.

...

"It's going to be hard to give up that talent," he said. "They're doing it to everybody. I read that the Dodgers' [general manager] Ned Colletti had a deal, and they changed [players] on him.

"They've maneuvered us against each other. They've got a 24-year-old power hitter who plays third base, and you've got about six teams that need a third baseman.

"They're asking for four Major League players -- three Major League players and a pitcher, or two pitchers and two players. He is arbitration-eligible this year -- $12 million-plus -- and then you've got to re-sign him."

Is money the issue?
"If you're looking at straight budget, we're over budget," Moreno said. "Yeah, I would [lose money] if I need to. It would be short-term.
Look out, ticket price hikes!

Update 11/29: Welcome to David Pinto's readers.

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Angels Introduce Hunter Despite Lack Of Contract

Now that's interesting.
Torii Hunter got a news conference from the Los Angeles Angels even before he finalized his contract.

Hunter was introduced Wednesday along with Jon Garland, acquired in a trade with the Chicago White Sox. Hunter, a seven-time Gold Glove center fielder, reached a preliminary agreement Nov. 21 on a $90 million, five-year contract but has yet to finalize the deal.

"We're just working out the final details of Torii's contract and that should be done relatively quickly," new Angels general manager Tony Reagins said. "He hasn't officially written his name, but we've agreed to all the terms."

There's a certain, uh, sloppiness that seems to operate in the young Reagins administration.

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Olney: Ex-Angels Percival, Maddon Reunited In Tampa Bay

It's not like the Cards were going to take another flyer on him.

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Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Meta: Mail Down, Again (UPDATE: And Back Up, Again)

And no thanks to Time Warner, who cut off all my inbound ports. Jerks.

Update 11/28: Back up again, but the culprit turned out to be the NetworkManglerManager under Fedora Core 7, which for some reason was confused as to the necessity of using DHCP when there was a perfectly valid fixed IP address going. All better now.

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Jesse Spector Interviews Ned Colletti

Jesse Spector interviews Dodgers GM Ned Colletti in the New York Daily News:
Complete this sentence: The Dodgers will be successful in 2008 because...

NC: That’s a great question. The Dodgers will be successful in 2008 because their younger players will continue to improve and the veteran players’ desire to win will meld with the younger players’ improvement, their knowledge of what it takes to win and improving under Joe’s leadership.

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OT: Matt Welch Leaves LAT, Rejoins Reason

I got confirmation of this this morning, but now that LA Observed — and, heck, Matt Welch hisself — have run the story, there's no reason to hide it: Matt Welch is leaving the Times and rejoining Reason as the magazine's editor. Congratulations on the upgrade in title.

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Pickoff Moves

Rob Neyer Reads Me — I'm Famous, Sort Of

Thanks for the linky, Rob.

Trying Hard Not To Parse Disaster In The Dodger Tea Leaves

Lately, it's been hard to read the output of the Dodger noise machine and not get a little flustered thinking they don't really understand what they're doing. Given the McCourt's tendencies to follow whatever shining path appears to be favored at the moment by the local newspaper hacks, it's both scary and fascinating to watch the smoke signals vent from Chavez Ravine. As an example, MSTI parsed Ken Rosenthal's latest in which he implores the Dodgers to follow the Angels down rabbitholes named Torii Hunter (or one just like him!). The prospect of the team yielding to its baser temptations was highlighted in a recent Boston Globe piece on McCourt that exemplified the thought processes — or lack thereof — running the Dodgers:
McCourt feels media reports of the Dodgers' clubhouse being a mess were greatly overblown. There might have been a youth-vs.-veterans feud after a few choice words by veterans Jeff Kent and Luis Gonzalez, but for McCourt, the worst part was, "we kept waiting for our talent to get us through the tough times and it never kicked in. When that happens, frustration sets in, and we just couldn't get ourselves out of that."
What talent, exactly, was it that should have gotten the Dodgers through the tough times? Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf were known to be injury risks. Los Angeles carried a lot of other decline risks in the aging Luis Gonzalez (.251/.316/.368 in the second half shouldn't have been surprising) and Nomar Garciaparra; and then there's the appallingly bad signing of Juan Pierre.

So it's with some relief that I read in today's Times Ned Colletti is going to rely on the kids. I should hope so:

"There's potential for change, but as we look at the young players that we played a lot this past year, we're less likely to fill in [positions with veterans] as much as we have in the past and more likely we'll give the younger players a greater opportunity," Colletti said. "I'm curious to see how our young players, who really had a chance this past year to play full time, I'm curious to see what another year does."
ToyCannon at TrueBlueLA showed us why Matt Kemp has a very good chance of being a great player:
Several players who became flame outs ended up being traded but NO ONE was ever traded after posting a year like Matt Kemp posted at the age of 19-22. Also no one has been traded to my knowledge at the age of Miguel Cabrera after what he has accomplished.
(By the way, Miguel Cabrera is going nowhere, just another free prediction service this offseason.)

Speaking Of Marginal Moves: Rich Lederer Pans Jon Garland

Rich Lederer has nothing nice to say about the Angels' acquisition of Jon Garland. Measured by K/100 pitches, Garland is pretty bad, but the fact that his groundball rate is declining precipitously makes the deal even worse. I'm of the opinion now as I was then that it's a pretty even trade because of Orlando Cabrera's age and relative chances for reproducing his 2007.

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Sunday, November 25, 2007

Meta: Mail Down — UPDATE: Fixed

Forgot to mention this, but the e-mail address on the sidebar is temporarily down. Should be back up by Monday.

Update: Fixed now.

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Saturday, November 24, 2007

Gary Matthews, Jr. May Not Be Much Of A Hitter...

... but he is a nice guy, as we found out when we discovered him flying four rows behind us in first class. (American gave us unexpected free upgrades for just booking eight weeks in advance. Sweet!) My wife shook his hand and complimented his play in center field. I just wonder why he's in town this week, 'cause I thought he lived in Texas still.

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Friday, November 23, 2007

OT: Woo, Pig: LSU Falls To Arkansas In 3 OT

We were eating dinner at a restaurant when we heard something so extraordinary I had to check it on my cellphone to be sure the stranger at the table next to us wasn't hallucinating or lying: the Arkansas Razorbacks beat the LSU Tigers 50-48 in triple overtime, something that may have saved head coach Houston Nutt's job. They're dancing in the Natural State.

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Why The Angels Are Glad They Landed Jon Garland

Just look at the stuff washing up on the shore:
Already, big names like Curt Schilling and Tom Glavine have signed, and Andy Pettitte, the best arm available on the free-agent market, has decreed that he'll either re-sign with the Yankees or retire. What's left? Middling stuff, for the most part. There's Carlos Silva (control artist, reliable innings guy, can be hit hard, likely to be overpaid), Kyle Lohse (promising injury history, capable of league-average innings, likely to be overpaid), Livan Hernandez (peerless durability, declining skills), and Randy Wolf (promising track record, coming off surgery, unknown quantity going forward, likely to sign low-base contract), among others. In other words, if you're looking to add an ace to your staff, then you're out of luck. On the other hand, if you need only to shore up the back end of the rotation, then you've got options.

If there's an ideal calculated risk available, then it's probably Bartolo Colon. Last season, Colon battled elbow problems for much of the year, and that limited him to 99.1 innings and a career-worst ERA of 6.34. On the other hand, after returning to the rotation in September, Colon posted a 3.95 ERA over the remainder of the season. Also, let's not forget that Colon has devastating stuff and won the AL Cy Young Award in 2005. Certainly, Colon's no sure thing — his health issues, poor conditioning and recent performance tell you that much — but he's also probably the best free-agent gamble left standing. Whether that's praise for Colon or an indictment of the current free-agent class is left to question.

I'll take Garland over the 2008 version of Colon every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

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Ex-Athletic Pitcher Joe Kennedy Dies

28-year-old former Oakland starter Joe Kennedy died early Friday morning, possibly due to a brain aneurysm, according to his agent, Damon Lapa. My condolences to his family.

Update: Ken Arneson writes a great piece on the subject.

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Angels Aren't Asking Vlad To Move

The Times is reporting that the Angels are asking Gary Matthews, Jr., not Vlad, about moving to another position on the heels of the Torii Hunter acquisition. Now, that doesn't mean they couldn't change their plans, but it's pretty odd that no such query has landed at Vlad's feet. The 2008 Angels now have the oldest outfield in team history, and Vlad and Anderson, the obvious candidates to stop shagging balls, aren't the first guys to be asked to take a DH vacation?

Update: The hyperbole machine winds up:

Angels fans, I know it's the day after Thanksgiving and you're stuffed, but you should be licking your chops.

Close your eyes and imagine this guy in your outfield. There is a reason Hunter is a seven-time Gold Glove winner. Picture Boston in town. Those Red Sox fans and their incessant "Let's go, Red Sox" are making you nuts. Suddenly, Manny Ramirez drives a ball deep into center field.

There it goes, another Manny home run.

Wait, what's that?

It's Torii Hunter flying high above the center-field wall, arm stretched, glove wide.

Home run stolen.

"Let's go, Red Sox"? Put a sock in it.

I chatted briefly with Rich Lederer yesterday, who said Hunter ought to fit right in with the Angels: low OBP, hacks at everything, aging ... which leads to this obvious rejoinder:
Close your eyes and imagine this guy at the plate. There is a reason Hunter is batting in the middle of this underwhelming lineup. Picture Boston in town. Those Red Sox fans and their incessant “Let’s go, Red Sox” are making you nuts, but the bases are loaded with two outs and Daiske Matsusaka's losing it. Suddenly, on a 3-2 count, Matsusaka throws a fastball 6 inches wide of the plate.

There it is, a bases loaded walk. The game is tied and the rally monkey is jumping.

Wait, what’s that?

It’s Torii Hunter flailing away and topping it weakly to short.

Rally killed.

“Let’s go, Red Sox.”

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Thursday, November 22, 2007

OT: Happy Thanksgiving

Wishing a happy and peaceful Thanksgiving to everyone.

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Angels Sign Torii Hunter For $90M/5 Years

I went to bed (central time) without checking the news, and here's what I get: the Angels have signed Torii Hunter for $90M/5 years? (Also at MLB.com.) Tony Reagins should have the keys to the franchise taken away from him for that. Hunter has been a better hitter in his days than Gary Matthews, Jr. has been, but I absolutely do not understand this deal. It does help to shore up left field, though the value of this contract will depend directly upon playing time assigned by Mike Scioscia. Hunter has been a little better than league average in center according to Rate2, throwing out his injury year of 2005 (105 in 2006 and 100 in 2007), while Gary Matthews, Jr. had the best defensive season of his career by that metric (109 Rate2). It also gives the Angels some options if Matthews, Jr. struggles as a full-time player (which he did in the second half), though that brings into question his over-rich contract in the first place.

Despite his type A ranking by Elias, Hunter's value to the team is rather dubious thanks to his age, multiplied by having a career year in a contract year. PECOTA projected him as a 45 VORP player, and he came in a bit below that at 39.2. Now, four wins is nothing to sneeze at, but he marks the kind of player the Angels really shouldn't be chasing; they need a Hall of Fame caliber bat, and Hunter simply isn't that. As a fix for the outfield, it reaches meh levels, with the usual caveats that Hunter's comps were either out of baseball or ineffective by the time this deal will be over, when Hunter is 36.

Update: Jon implies his gratitude to the Angels for executing a plan that looks like it might have been endorsed by the Bad Idea Bears, swiping Hunter away from the Dodgers. The title of his post says it all: "Thanksgiiviing".

Update 2: I wonder if the Angels FO was reading this as inspiration...

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Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Pickoff Moves

The Dodgers Prospect Mystery Machine

After making their 40-man protection maneuvers, Jon handed the podium to CanuckDodger for very substantive read on the oddities of this particular set. The Dodgers sent Xavier Paul, Lucas May, James McDonald, Ramon Troncoso, Justin Orenduff, Mario Alvarez and Cory Wade to the 40-man while outrighting Mike Megrew. It was a "mix [of] the predictable with the astounding", because missing from the list was Wesley Wright:
Now, it's possible that the Dodgers know something about Wright that hasn't been told to the public - such as Wright is hurt, or the Dodgers suspect his arm will fall off soon - but outside of that possibility, the Dodgers' protecting Alvarez over Wright is a monumental head-scratcher, and in my opinion, represents a Dodger front-office miscalculation. But, alas, such miscalculations are something to which the current Dodger front-office personnel are very far from strangers.
Jon's shared platform, on these matters at least, makes a good thing even better.

Tim Brown On The Dodgers' Offseason

In which Tim Brown tries to predict the Dodgers' offseason moves:
More likely, Colletti draws on his farm system to upgrade at third base with Miguel Cabrera or Joe Crede. He could expand a trade with the Florida Marlins to include Dontrelle Willis, though Willis' value isn't close to what it was a year or two ago, and the Marlins don't quite recognize that yet. If they were to spend their prospects, they'd do well to bring back Johan Santana or Eric Bedard, exceptional left-handers who might be had because they are close to free agency.

Angels' FO To Fall Asleep Until Winter Meetings

At least, that's the rumor. I expect a big change in front office approach unlikely, but Reagins isn't Stoneman. That could be good or bad.

Eric Chavez, Career A — Injured Or No

Billy Beane apparently told Eric Chavez that he would be in Oakland his whole career. How long is that career going to be?
"Billy told me he'd never even thought about [trading him]," Chavez said. "He said he planned on having me here my whole career."
Given that he's got chips in his shoulder that need to be removed, that statement may yet prove correct.

Steve Finley Still Wants To Play

Hold your snickers.

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Kevin Goldstein Ranks Top Eleven Angels

Still working the jet lag... at Baseball Prospectus:
Five-Star Prospects
1. Nick Adenhart, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Brandon Wood, 3B/SS
3. Jordan Walden, RHP
4. Hank Conger, C
Three-Star Prospects
5. Sean O'Sullivan, RHP
6. Sean Rodriguez, SS
7. Peter Bourjos, OF
8. Rich Thompson, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
9. Matt Sweeney, 3B
10. Jon Bachanov, RHP
11. Mason Tobin, RHP

Just Missing: Jose Arredondo, RHP; Chris Pettit, OF; Hanley Statia, SS

Quite a drop down from previous years, there's nobody here who will knock the league on its ear, but it's still a solid list.

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Rule 5 Shenanigans

I didn't say anything about it when the Rangers plucked RHP Warner Madrigal away from the Angels just days after the Angels' front office announced they had purchased his contract. Apparently, the Angels missed the actual deadline to purchase his contract, because it changed this year. Now it turns out that Cliff Corcoran thinks the Yankees have possibly found a way around roster restrictions by putting some of their more promising prospects on the 40-man and then waiting to sign free agents Jorge Posada, Jose Molina, and Mariano Rivera until after the Rule 5 draft is completed. Whether this matters or not is debatable (wouldn't those players become minor league free agents if they were outrighted?), but it does raise questions about the relative competence of the two front offices.

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Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Jimmy Rollins, NL MVP

Tulo and Holliday got shafted again as the BBWAA voted Jimmy Rollins NL MVP. Thppt.

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Monday, November 19, 2007

Vlad Finishes 3rd In AL MVP Voting

... to Pay-Rod, of course, but Magglio Ordonez was a worthy competitor, too.

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Chan Ho Park Abandons Dodger Contract, Joins Korean National Team

What were his chances with the Dodgers, now really? This, of course, came up in the context of MGL's rating the best and worst pitchers in baseball, with Park among the worst. Via BTF.

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White Sox Send Jon Garland To Angels For Orlando Cabrera

The Chicago Tribune is reporting that the Angels have sent Orlando Cabrera and cash to the White Sox in exchange for starter Jon Garland.

One way or another (though Rotoworld thinks it could be Erick Aybar), Cabrera was going to be gone by the end of 2008; getting something of value for him qualifies as a good thing. Moreover, the Angels get younger, and while I tend to agree with the anonymous Rotoworld analyst that at this point who says Garland is a fourth starter on the Angels, it puts one of Joe Saunders or Ervin Santana on notice that theirs isn't an automatic rotation slot.

Garland pitched in a hostile environment in U.S. Cellular, so moving to Angel Stadium might help; it should, however, be noted that his career home ERA is a half run lower than his road ERA. He's never had very good peripherals (career 4.79 K/9 and only 4.23 in 2007), and so he's had to rely on pitching to contact to earn his keep. He's at his best when he keeps the ball on the ground, but he hasn't been able to do that consistently in his career — and that ability seems to be eroding lately. That is, he's an older, more expensive version of Joe Saunders or Paul Byrd with slightly better numbers than Saunders and younger than Byrd.

As to Garland's future: PECOTA just about nailed Garland's 50th-percentile projection with a 23.5 VORP (he finished at 26.6); assuming that accuracy continues, Garland is likely to play out just below the 4 WARP level, i.e. he's worth maybe two wins a year if he gets lucky. As a one-year deal, it makes some sense for the Angels; Garland is likely better than the free agent pitching available this offseason (Matt Clement, anyone?). He hasn't had any significant injuries lately, and has generally been healthy, both good attributes for a pitcher.

Overall, I like this trade for the Angels, but despite what some are claiming at BTF, this is a pretty even trade. Both players are entering free agency after this year (though why Chicago wants Cabrera after re-signing Juan Uribe is a mystery), both have been healthy, though Cabrera has substantial downside risk and Garland's upside, despite being only 28, is pretty limited. It provides depth for the Angels, but ... what for the Chisox, who really need to think about rebuilding at several positions?

Update: More coverage at the Times and Register.

Update 2: I don't get why U.S.S. Mariner's Dave thinks this makes the Angels worse. The gap between Nick Adenhart and the majors is still large. The suspicion elsewhere seems to be that there's going to be another big move, whether it's another attempt to get Tejada or going for broke with Miguel "Who You Callin' Fat?" Cabrera.

Update 3: Also via MLB.com, which adds this money quote from Tony Reagins (emphasis mine):

"I don't know if it's a bold move," Tony Reagins, the Angels' new general manager, said of his first major deal. "It's a move that makes us better. This puts us in the right direction and opens up opportunities to do things down the line if that opens up."
Mike Scioscia gives us some more:
"More important, it gives Tony the opportunity to look at some things in the [Dec. 3-6] Winter Meetings [in Nashville]. Obviously, there's been a lot of focus on the offensive side. Tony's not done. ... He's going to address that, and he has the tools to do things. Every club we've talked to asks about pitching, and we have a legitimate six-man rotation."
There's another log on the fire of Miguel Cabrera trade prospects...

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Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Pickoff Moves

Eric Wedge, Bob Melvin Voted Managers Of The Year

Eric Wedge in the AL and Bob Melvin in the AL won Manager of the Year Awards. Thanks to Bob Timmermann for the BBWAA links.

Red Sox, A's To Open 2008 In Japan

The Red Sox and A's will play regular season games in Japan, opening the season on March 25 and 26. Man, is this going to make Sean Forman's life harder.

Sabathia, Peavy Take Home Cy Young Hardware

In the AL and NL respectively. Both were good choices, and so congratulations.

Meta: Slow

It's moving time, so posting will be slower than usual for the next couple weeks.

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If You Read One Post About Dodgers Player Development This Year...

... it really ought to be CanuckDodger's guest appearance at Dodger Thoughts talking about the organization's failure to spend the tall dollars for signing bonuses of Latin American prospects.
Logan White may well have had a mandate from Frank McCourt to get more talent out of Latin America than the Dodgers had been getting since McCourt took control of the Dodgers, and White almost certainly had to have more money for the task than McCourt was willing to spend before, but "more" is not the same thing as "enough." The Dodgers' budget to sign international amateur talent is still small, and the Dodgers' reputation in the international market is that they are still cheap. Scout.com's Bill Shelley claims that in the Dominican Republic the men who steer talented kids to MLB organizations - and take a cut of the kids' signing bonuses - outright avoid the Dodgers when they have kids whom they think are worth a million dollars or two, with Shelley quoting White as saying, "We don't get to talk to them. They know we won't pay that."
I was always concerned before that payroll would be an issue, but consistent with the Dodgers reducing their Dominican presence, the real issue is whether they understand how to acquire and deploy talent. In my view, the McCourt era is long on symbolism and short on execution.

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Monday, November 12, 2007

No Faith In Larry King: Kent Still Undecided About 2008

My heart is broken.

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PMR For Centerfielders, Second Basemen

David Pinto has continued his annual series of probabilistic model of range (PMR) statistics position-by-position, and today looks at centerfielders, which the Chronicler helpfully converts back into runs. Gary Matthews, Jr. shows up as being just above average (3.9 runs), while Juan Pierre does about twice that (6.9 runs).

The Chronicler also does the same for second basemen. No surprise there, Howie Kendrick is a pretty good (above average but unspectacularly so at 3.8 runs) player at that position, while Adam Kennedy, whom he replaced, has fallen off the floor at -4.7. Jeff Kent is one of the worst second basemen in the league, at -13.1.

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Ryan Braun, Dustin Pedroia Nab Rookie Of The Year Awards

I'll take Troy Tulowitzki's seasons at age 30 and beyond over Ryan Braun's, but the voters have spoken, and it's Ryan Braun in the NL and Dustin Pedroia in the AL who won Rookie of the Year honors. Congratulations to both.

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Sunday, November 11, 2007

Larry King Says Jeff Kent Says He's Coming Back To The Dodgers

Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Either way, if true, it means his automatically vesting $9M 2008 option will be exercised.

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Friday, November 09, 2007

Vlad Guerrero, Russell Martin Headline Silver Slugger Recipients

Angels outfielder Vladimir Guerrero and Dodgers catcher Russell Martin both won Silver Slugger awards at their respective positions. The win was Guerrero's seventh and Martin's first. The complete list:

American League

National League

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Roster Notes

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Thursday, November 08, 2007

Evidence The Angels Won't Get A Deal For Cabrera Done: The Marlins Want Howie Kendrick In Exchange

Well, you knew that was happening. Not even the Chronicler's posited trade includes him, and that, my friends, is that.
With the Angels, Dodgers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants and Cleveland Indians all interested in Cabrera, the Marlins could reject any team that demands a negotiating window with Cabrera. Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti would not discuss Cabrera in particular but indicated he could do a deal without such a window.

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Pickoff Moves

Dodgers Sign Chan Ho Park

According to the Korea Times, the Dodgers have signed Chan Ho Park, but it's unknown to what kind of a contract. My guess is it's a minor league deal.

Update: Jon quotes Josh Rawitch as saying the deal isn't in the can just yet, but "it's heading that direction." And thanks to SoSG for the linky.

Dodgers To Pursue Hiroki Kuroda

Late, but why not: speaking of Asian pitchers, the Dodgers are pursuing Japanese free agent Hiroki Kuroda, a 32-year-old control specialist with a 95 MPH heater. Hat tip, as ever, to Jon.

Dodgers Hire Dennis Mannion As CEO

Whatever.

Steve Dilbeck Thinks The Angels And Dodgers Should Forget About A-Rod

Because his salary demands are so ludicrous:
Here's a better idea for the Dodgers: Sign free agent Torii Hunter and put him in center, and then try to swing a Matt Kemp-for-Miguel Cabrera deal with the Marlins.

Cabrera, 24, is getting pricey for Florida and figures to get over $10 million in arbitration this year. He has two years before being eligible for free agency.

Hunter, 32, is expected to receive offers for around $15million per season and wants a five-year contract, which is still half the commitment Rodriguez is apparently after.

With the money saved from signing A-Rod, the Dodgers could try to pry Scott Kazmir from Tampa Bay or take a run at the latest Japanese pitching import, Hiroki Kuroda. Or at least hold off on that next parking fee increase.

The Angels could act similarly, or go after Mike Lowell at third or Andruw Jones or Japan's Kosuke Fukudome in the outfield. Try to swing a trade for Marlins starter Dontrelle Willis, another suddenly expensive player for the Marlins. And still keep beer prices down.

Cabrera might be a better fit for the Angels if the talk of his increasing weight is correct; that would move him to first base or a perma-DH, where his value would be appreciably lower. Cabrera's already poorly regarded with the leather at third.

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Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Murray Chass: Two Teams Needed For An A-Rod Bidding War

Murray Chass writes that it takes two teams to tango in the offseason:
The more Boras talks the more he sounds like he thinks he erred by orchestrating the opt-out clause with Rodriguez. Maybe Boras was calling the Yankees’ bluff, and now may see that they are serious about not talking to A-Rod to play third base. Any agent with a player like A-Rod for a client would want the Yankees to drive up the bidding. The question now is if there is anyone else to drive up the bidding? Boras has almost always achieved his goals for his superstar clients, finding some team to bid big. But is there a team among the other 29 prepared to make his and A-Rod’s day?
In the sidebar, the article claims both the Mets and Red Sox are out of the serious bidding, but c'mon, the offseason — measured by the time when teams can actually make a bid for free agents — hasn't even begun yet.

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Things Ned Said Two Days Ago

Regarding Ned's comments passed on to Jon by the Kamenetzky's two days ago: before it falls into oblivion, I want to take a quick note of the following paragraph:
"Where [the Dodgers' young players are] at, we're fine with. They have to continue to do it. They're not complete. They can't just come in here and think that they're not going to have to continue to work and continue to grow and continue to understand the game better. And forget a little about personal accomplishment and more about figuring out how to win the game ...
Who, then, is "complete"? Should we take seriously Buster Olney's speculation that the Dodgers are pursuing a trade for Miguel Cabrera consisting of "third baseman Andy LaRoche, minor league pitcher Clay Kershaw, and an outfielder -- perhaps Matt Kemp"? All those incomplete players. Sheesh.

Update: Matt's right: in my haste to get this out, I failed to notice that this was a not a speculation about an potential trade but his speculation about what it might take to get such a trade done. The difference is that two speculations are called for.

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Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Pickoff Moves, Lunchtime Edition

Martin, Cabrera Headline Gold Glove Awards

Russell Martin has won the NL Gold Glove Award at catcher, according to dodgers.com.

Update: Complete NL Gold Glove list:

Update: mlb.com has the complete AL list; Orlando Cabrera won a Gold Glove at shortstop. Placido Polanco of Detroit won the second base award, while Kevin Youkilis got the nod at first base. In the outfield, Grady Sizemore of Cleveland took home the hardware; on the mound, Johan Santana won the AL's pick.

According to the Seattle Times, Ichiro Suzuki and Adrian Beltre won the award in the AL for the respective positions of centerfield and third base. It was the first award given to an AL third baseman not named Eric Chavez since 2001.

ESPN's Offseason Advice For The Angels

Go get A-Rod, duh.

Baseball GMs Vote In Favor Of Instant Replay

For the first time ever, by a tally of 25-5, baseball's general managers voted in favor of instant replay, but only for plays involving fair or foul calls on home runs, and whether fans interfered with a ball in play. Those limited purposes make sense to me.

Mariners Hire Ex-Baltimore Manager Sam Perlozzo

As their third base coach.

Willits Trade Speculation

Interesting trade speculation from San Diego regarding Reggie Willits:
When trade-averse GM Bill Stoneman left the Angels last month, it increased the chances Towers will barter with the Angels for outfielders such as Reggie Willits and Nathan Haynes. Willits has almost no power, but he had a .391 on-base percentage last year. The strong relationship between Padres manager Bud Black and Angels manager Mike Scioscia increases the chances the two franchises could strike a deal.

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Pickoff Moves

Joe Torre and Frank McCourt —
Best Friends Forever
Until The First Losing Season

Torre As Panacea

There's something about managerial changes that makes a lot of people lose their perspective on things. I don't expect much (anything, really) from Bill Plaschke — anyone who could pen Tommy Lasorda's hagiography leaves me questioning their sanity — so the clear, bright line for sportswriters is whether they understand this patently obvious fact. Mike Waldner in the Daily Breeze does:
The McCourt mantra is reconnecting with the tradition of the team.

Here, finally, they have hired someone who is up to and understands the task. Plus, he's won four World Series rings.

Except. Except? Except Torre is overrated. Overrated?

Definitely. As he himself knows better than anyone, he does not walk on water. He's not going to wave a fungo bat and suddenly the Dodgers will find themselves in the World Series. The young players need to grow. The roster should be tweaked.

Bill Shaikin of the Times gets it, too:
It is just shy of four years since she and her husband, Frank, bought the Dodgers. The skepticism has yet to abate.

No one can question the McCourts' passion for Los Angeles, for the Dodgers, for victory. But they're still learning on the job, on their own, preferring to run the organization themselves than entrust it to an experienced sports executive.

So, on what should have been a glorious day for the Dodgers, too many questions revolved around credibility. The Dodgers employed one manager, Grady Little, while they searched for another: What did Torre know, and when did he know it? What about Ned Colletti, the general manager? What about the McCourts?

This is not the first time credibility issues have overshadowed personnel decisions. The McCourts inherited Dan Evans as general manager and said they would consider retaining him, followed minutes later by Jamie McCourt telling the Daily News, "When we get a GM . . . "

Though I do have to wonder about his suggestion that the McCourts hire Ducks GM Brian Burke, among others, as a new CEO. That's ... bizarre.

Dodgers VP Marty Greenspun Resigns

No replacement named, and with a 12:40 AM dateline, too. Speaking of weird...

Roster Notes

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Monday, November 05, 2007

Buster Olney: Padres, Greg Maddux Agree On $10M/1-Year Deal

The Padres and Greg Maddux have agreed on the terms of a one-year deal, according to ESPN's Buster Olney. Maddux had a $8.75M player option for 2008, and the Padres had an $11M option.

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Minor League Free Agents

Baseball America lists the minor league free agents:
Los Angeles Angels (20)
Righthanders:
Henry Bonilla, Robert Coello, Marcus Gwyn, Matt Hensley, Pedro Liriano, Warner Madrigal, Alex McRobbie, Alex Serrano, Steven Shell
Lefthander: Jonathon Rouwenhorst
Catchers: Cody Collet, Corey Myers
First basemen: Michael Collins, Mike Eylward
Second basemen: Adam Morrissey, Steven Smith
Shortstop: Gary Patchett
Outfielders: Tommy Murphy, Greg Porter, Curtis Pride
Stephen Smith correctly notes that Steven Smith is most likely INF Casey Smith. Among the pitchers, it will be interesting to see whether the Angels re-up Marcus Gwyn, Warner Madrigal, Jonathon Rouwenhorst (just because he's a lefty), and Steven Shell; Shell in particular has had a lot of second chances. Of the position players, I'm expecting Greg Porter might come back. I admit to being a little sad about seeing Aussie Michael Collins disappear to free agency, but his fate was sealed once he had to move to first base.

For the Dodgers:

Los Angeles Dodgers (18)
Righthanders:
Rick Bauer, Jose Diaz, Chris Fussell, William Juarez, Spike Lundberg, Alvis Ojeda, Raul Rivas
Lefthanders: Eric Cyr, Luis Gonzalez, Matt Riley
Catchers: Alberto Concepcion, Ken Huckaby, Octavio Martinez, Chad Moeller
Second baseman: Luis Maza
Third baseman: Marshall McDougall
Outfielders: Rapheal Freeman, Wilkin Ruan
There isn't a single player on this list (with the possible exception of Chad Moeller) who I would expect to see back next year in the Dodgers system.

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Pickoff Moves

Angels' Hot Stove Begins With A Murmur

Today's Register has a piece about new Angels GM Tony Reagins and the languorous pace of the offseason. Has he talked with Scott Boras? Why, yes:
"I'm looking forward to it," Reagins said. "I've had conversations with a lot of GMs around the league. This will give me a chance to meet them on a face-to-face basis.

"We're going to the meetings with an open mind. We'll try to dialogue with as many teams as possible to see if there's something available to improve our club. The meetings are an opportunity to lay some groundwork for moves that could help our club."

Something is available — or will be when the 15-day post-World Series window of exclusivity for teams to negotiate with their own free agents expires Nov. 13. That's when the anticipated courting of free agent Alex Rodriguez will begin.

Reagins said he has already had a conversation with Rodriguez's agent, Scott Boras. It was "an introductory conversation," Reagins said, initiated by Boras, who represents numerous players. The two had never met during Reagins' years in the Angels' baseball operations department.

"He basically just called to introduce himself," Reagins said. "We didn't talk numbers (regarding Rodriguez's contract expectations) obviously. There are rules that don't allow you to do that for another eight days or so."

Roster Notes

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Saturday, November 03, 2007

"I Can't Believe He's Not Torre!" And Other Grumbling About The Dodgers Managerial Position

Re Dylan Hernandez's piece in today's Times:
Joe Torre signed his name on a three-year contract worth %$13 million Thursday, officially making him the sixth Dodgers manager of the last decade.

But General Manager Ned Colletti said that while he did not expect the 67-year-old Torre to hold the position for "a very, very long time," the signing of the former New York Yankees manager was part of a design to establish continuity for the Dodgers.

Since when have they been concerned about continuity? I thought it was the illusion of doing something...
"If we can groom somebody under Joe's direction, we look forward to doing that," Colletti said, adding that the concept was a "key component" of a vision he shares with owners Frank and Jamie McCourt.
Not the Vision thing. Please, anything but that. Next thing you know, the Dodgers will have a Mission Statement. Wait, they do.
Also leaving the Yankees recently was Don Mattingly, who is expected to be on Torre's coaching staff and could be the manager-in-training of whom Colletti spoke. Colletti said a coaching staff was not in place yet.
Did anybody else mention that Mattingly has had no managerial experience, even at the minor league level?

The most important thing:

"The McCourts couldn't have made a better decision," said former Dodgers manager Tom Lasorda, a special advisor to the owners.
I can't tell whether Lasorda has been bumped upstairs to do nefarious work, or pushed into a meaningless corner office.

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Friday, November 02, 2007

Pickoff Moves

Reaction To The Torre Hiring

I have no official party line here other than that the Torre hiring makes little difference either way; managers do not swing the bat, field the balls, or pitch, and so Joe Torre is mostly superfluous to the Dodgers save to the extent that he is a salve to Frank McCourt's brittle ego. However, there is also this to it (and I hate to give Plaschke a link for any reason, but he is right in this one aspect): at 67, he's also not long for the dugout. We get to go through this all over again in a few years.

That said, the linkfest:

OT: Serialism Is For Musical Nazis (Or Not)

Serialism is the ultimate descent into meaningless musical pedantry possible: it eschews things like keys for, uh, apparent randomness. Audiences therefore took their feet and went elsewhere, quite reasonably assuming the composers thereof had lost their minds. Alex Ross, music critic for the New Yorker, recently has tried to change our minds about this with a book and a blog both named The Rest Is Noise, about the "terrifying sounds" eminating from the academic blowhards like Arnold Schoenberg. Today's Salon has a review of the book by Kevin Berger, who confesses his love of Ross as a writer. The most interesting bit, though comes from a reader letter that divulges the fact that Anton Webern was a double agent who spied for the Nazis and used his music to deliver secret messages.
"This calls into question the entire Second Viennese School of music," announced minimalist composer John Adams from his home in the Adirondack Mountains. "Ever since I first encountered compositions by Arnold Schonberg I wondered what the hell anyone ever heard in it. Now I know."
That would be neutron densities. Arnold Schoenberg (after whom UCLA's music building was named) used serialism as a means to send atomic secrets back to Nazi Germany. Bet they don't take the name off the door any time soon.

Update: It's a hoax.

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Thursday, November 01, 2007

Gammons: Marlins Open To Cabrera Trade

Peter Gammons says the Marlins are open to a deal for 3B Miguel Cabrera. If this is true, the Angels need to go after him, and hard. That is a much better deal than one expensive A-Rod. (Hat tip: cupie.)

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Angels Re-Sign Entire Coaching Staff

The Angels will bring back all their coaching staff for 2008 on multiyear extensions.

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It's Official: Dodgers Announce Torre As New Manager

Reuters via Yahoo Sports and the Times both report that the Dodgers have signed Joe Torre to be their new manager.

Update: Now at dodgers.com. Significant pieces of intelligence therefrom:

Torre was manager of the year in 1996 and 1998. He previously managed the Braves, Mets and Cardinals. His overall winning percentage is .539, but his win percentage excluding the Yankees years was .470, and those teams finished first once in 15 seasons.

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Another Red Sox/Dodgers Connection: Damn Yankees In Blue

Have the Dodgers really become the Red Sox? The negative mojo had to go somewhere; maybe another indicator of this appears at UCLA's Freud Playhouse, where the Reprise! theater troupe is presenting a re-staging of Damn Yankees featuring the Dodgers as the team that can't beat the Bombers, set in 1981. Opens Wednesday, Nov. 7, through Nov. 18.

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Dodgers Get Exemption From Minority Interview Rule; Deal With Torre Said To Be Near

More of the same.
A team source said that the Dodgers asked to be made exempt of the full-scale interview process to expedite the hiring of Torre, the former New York Yankees manager. A deal with Torre believed to be for three years and worth more than $4 million a season could be finalized today.

Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti acknowledged for the first time Wednesday that he was speaking to Torre and considered him to be the top choice to replace Grady Little, who resigned Tuesday.

"When you look at his resume and what he's done and the market he's done it in, certainly, you have to start from there," Colletti said.

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Dodgers To Break Ground On Arizona Spring Training Facility

The Dodgers will break ground on their new Glendale, AZ spring training facility November 19. They'd better hurry: the completion date is slated to be February 27, 2009.

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