6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog

To those who think this is a bad trade: remember Lima's career ERA is 5.05. Remember we don't have Nomo now, maybe not for the rest of the season, and after the season's over, he's gone, period. Remember Alvarez can't handle the rotation for extended stretches. Remember the Dodgers have two losing months this year and two winning months, and that was with Paulie hitting like a demon again. Remember Paulie was hitting .222 in June, and continued his slump, his pinch-hit two-run homer notwithstanding.

Weigh.

// posted by Rob @ 11:20 PM link  //  2 comments

[B]eyond Finley, the Dodgers' additions stand at Brad Penny, Hee Seop Choi, Bret Mayne, and some minor leaguers. Their losses: Paul Lo Duca, Guillermo Mota, Dave Roberts, Tom Martin, and Juan Encarnacion. People can talk all they want about Lo Duca being a poor second-half hitter and Roberts being nothing more than legs, but there's no way in hell that the Dodgers are better today than they were yesterday morning. They picked up a guy who plays once every five days (Penny), another guy who's nothing more than a platoon player (Choi, if you go by his .194 average against lefties), and a 39-year-old outfielder they didn't need (Finley) who figures to fight with Milton Bradley over centerfield. They give up a hard-nosed catcher who's loved by his teammates and his city, a hard-nosed outfielder who's leading the league in stolen base percentage, a powerful set-up man for Gagne, and a good defensive outfielder who's got some pop. It just doesn't sit right. In fact, it couldn't be any more wrong.

DePodesta has absolutely begun to put his stamp on the team, and it begins with a shake-up of a team in first-place. First place! Since when does a first-place team need a shake-up? It's absurd. For years the Dodgers have had talent, and it's gotten them nowhere. This year, the Dodgers finally have the C-word (chemistry), and DePodesta screws with it—in a HUGE way. That's just sick.

I think the Dodgers have screwed up. If indeed they have Dave Ross and maybe Brent Mayne at catcher, they have definitely made a mistake. ... Net effect? Probably downgrade. I bet the Padres are into this. If they win the division by a game, they should send Charles Johnson a nice box of chocolates.

I know what Paul DePodesta is feeling right now, because I’ve been to the racetrack. Many times I’ve put my hopes on a daily double. As you probably know, the daily double means you have to pick the winners of the first and second races. Just picking one will yield nothing. If you fail to win the daily double, it can take a lot of enjoyment from the rest of your day.

... After the trade deadline passed, all DePodesta could do was tear up his tickets.

More as it happens...

// posted by Rob @ 10:59 PM link  //  4 comments

It's certainly a glass of cold water in the face. Every close lead in late innings now becomes that much more of a question mark; do you force your starters to go longer, or do you rely more on weaker relievers? It's a tough question, but it all reminds me that, for all the disdain I've shown Bill Stoneman over the last year for his lack of imagination in acquiring players, perhaps he's not so dumb to avoid trading key minor leaguers for pieces that might not make sense even after they arrive, let alone making trades for the sake of trading. (For the introduction to how Stoneman thinks, read this.)

"My <expletive> doesn't work in the playoffs," Billy Beane is quoted to say in Moneyball. Will DePo's even work to get us there?

Recap

// posted by Rob @ 9:31 PM link  //  2 comments

Update 6:06 pm: And of course they won. Jebus X. Christ was that annoying, on a Guillen home run after Curtis Pride singled. Look, guys, you want me to believe you're really gonna win the division? Try a couple blowouts. As Richard already noted, today's "win" featured all the hallmarks of typical Angel losses, including injuries to starting players, stupid baserunning (now what did I say about that before?), craptacular starting and relief pitching, and an inability to close the deal with bases loaded.

Final score, Angels 9, Mariners 8.

Recap

// posted by Rob @ 4:42 PM link  //  0 comments

Update 2:23 pm: Tom Martin is Atlanta-bound.

Update 2:27 pm: mlb.com has the trade going down as

• Dodgers get OF Steve Finley, and C Brent Mayne
• Diamondbacks get prospects OF Reggie Abercrombie, C Koyie Hill and LHP Bill Murphy

We'll know more when we go up against the Cards.

Update 5:22 pm: Charles Johnson opted to stay with the Rocks, citing family concerns. Hence, Brent Mayne.

Update 5:34 pm: The Score Bard has his analysis up of the various trades:

DePo's no dapper old dandy.
Fans hate his nouveau operandi.
He got Finley and Mayne,
But he didn't obtain
Redemption by pulling in Randy.

// posted by Rob @ 2:18 PM link  //  5 comments

Ground Rules

A great deal of ink has already been spilt over the VORP values of the players involved. Both Jon and John have pulled together analyses of the trade, both actual and rumored. For the sake of clarity, I'm going to lay down the rules here:

1. The offensive metric of choice is VORP, Value Over Replacement Player. If you don't know what it means or how it works, you could look it up. Short version: VORP is denominated in runs, telling you how much better one player is than a hypothetical, freely available replacement. (The actual availability of such players has yet to be shown by VORP's proponents in my mind, but take it for what it's worth.)
2. We won't use the better metric, Win Shares, and hence, Win Shares Above Average, for now because of the expense of calculating it historically. Win Shares represents an improvement over VORP because VORP really only measures the player's offensive value (except for pitchers), but Win Shares also accounts for defensive value. Historical Win Shares are not readily available online before 2003.
3. One advantage VORP does have over Win Shares is that Baseball Prospectus has a system -- PECOTA -- that projects a players' value over the course of a 162-game season. This system does so over a range of probabilities, from 10th percentile (horrible, worst case, most unlikely) to 90th percentile (Frank McCourt-style optimism). We'll be using the difference between projected VORP and actual VORP as a simple yardstick to measure a player's worth.

Catcher

Before I launch into this, it's appropriate to start with a word about the difficulties inherent in forecasting player performance. Here's the blurb from the 1996 projection from Paulie's PECOTA card:

He was converted to catcher this season, after primarily being a first baseman and DH, and between Piazza, Huckaby, and eventually Ryan Luzinski, he has no future in the organization.

But, Paulie's a second-half snorer. His collapses are well documented, but for the record, let's recall them:

Let's get one thing straight now: this is a bad deal immediately for the Marlins. They have to be betting he'll hit better in a platoon situation than he will if he has to catch every day. It's not a bet I would be willing to make.

Emotionally, I miss Paulie already. He was a bright spot in so many of the recent Dodger teams, the one guy you could look forward to seeing at the plate -- and behind it. He did everything right, worked hard, and never had the cocky arrogance of the players Kevin Malone infamously brought into the club. The guy was having a return to his 2001 form. After the frustrations of last year, when the club's pitching neared perfection but couldn't hit worth a damn, after the team finally crawls into first place in the division and Paulie's resurgence is a big part of that -- DePodesta shipped him off.

The dispassionate trade analyzer might say "buy low, sell high". And a 32-year-old Paulie's value will never be higher. But that doesn't mean I won't miss seeing him in the lineup.

Update 5:44 pm: The news that Charles Johnson will stay in Colorado came as maybe not much of a surprise, considering how the Dodgers would have likely tossed him out at the end of the year anyway. But what that now means is that it's a crapshoot as to who is going to be the starting catcher effective tonight; my guess would be Mayne, but Ross hasn't been much better. Though PECOTA projects him to have a higher upside, he hasn't shown that ability outside of last year's at bats. If anything has gone wrong with this trade, it's right here.

First Base/Right Field

This should tell you something about PECOTA: it doesn't understand injuries very well. Green's projected 74.3 VORP corresponds to a .313/.401/.598, 41 HR season. It's clear we won't get that from Shawn, but Hee Seop Choi's clearly on pace to meet his most optimistic projections. This move benefits the club immediately; Choi gives the club a nice answer until James Loney is ready, if he ever is.

Green, hard as it is to believe, represents a substantial upgrade over Juan Encarnacion. For Florida, this represents a taking out of the trash for the Dodgers. Juan's $8M, two-year contract isn't a big impediment to the club; one almost wonders whether he'll now get that shoulder surgery he should have had in last year's offseason.

Defensively... well, this should prove a wash all around, I suspect.

Left Field

Finley is kicking PECOTA's expectations all over the place. What's bothersome about the idea of moving Werth is that his 11.1 VORP comes in 124 AB vs 451 AB for Finley's 23.1 VORP. Werth could be a starter for many years, but much depends on the fallout of the Arizona trade(s) -- or not. As with Penny (who I'll discuss in a moment), I'd just as soon draw the line here.

Update: as of 12:55 PDT, KFWB reports no deal for Steve Finley. Probably still too early to tell, but that gives me a lift.

Pitchers

First, I should mention that every one of these guys is on target to exceed their 90th percentile VORP projections.

I like the idea that the trades stop here, frankly. Penny is a good guy, there aren't any huge difference makers entering the NL West, and we can own him for a while. Between him and Choi, we have a pair of nice young players who'll be around for a while. Penny replaces Wilson Alvarez, who takes over the job that Mota had as setup man for Gagné. ESPN now reports Johnson won't go anywhere, and I'm not unhappy with that. Many of the same arguments that I made regarding the Angels pursuit of RJ still hold with the Dodgers.

The question is Johnson. We have an hour left, and he could change his mind. Update: ESPN says the answer is no. Again, I'm happy.

Chemistry

Age

DePo isn't afraid to make trades. The question is, will those trades work? I think the Dodgers have already come out on top of these deals; they work for us. Let's see if anything else comes up.

// posted by Rob @ 12:03 PM link  //  1 comments

• Dodgers get former Cub Hee Seop Choi, Brad Penny, and minor league pitcher Bill Murphy.
• Marlins get Guillermo Mota, Paul Lo Duca, and Juan Encarnacion.

Stay tuned.

Update: Rotoworld reports the Angels have released Raul Mondesi after he failed to report for a rehab assignment.

Update: John's Dodger Blog passes on more from XTRA 1150: "Werth, Penny, Murphy, and Chuck Tiffany or Chad Billingsley for Johnson and Finley."

If true -- shite. As John says, this puts us in the playoffs.

Update: Brad Fullmer to the Padres, for a PTBNL.

Update dodgers.com:

• Dodgers get 1B Hee Seop Choi, P Randy Johnson, OF Steve Finley, C Charles Johnson, RHP prospect Bill Murphy
• Marlins get C Paul LoDuca, OF Juan Encarnacion, P Guillermo Mota
• Diamondbacks get P Brad Penny, P Edwin Jackson, OF Jayson Werth
• Rockies get PTBNL and salary relief

// posted by Rob @ 3:49 PM link  //  6 comments

DePo's A Smart Guy

Milton, Your Mom's On Line One

"The experience here is exceeding all expectations," says the 1996 Poly High graduate who's done a commendable job since the Dodgers acquired the 26-year-old center fielder on April 4 from the Cleveland Indians.

But Bradley insists that he no longer will have one of those volcanic-like eruptions as he did a few weeks back when he received a five-game suspension for his run-in with umpire Terry Craft.

Even his most loyal supporter, his mother, Charlena Rector, didn't approve of that episode. "She told me afterward I went too far and not to do it again," related Bradley. "And I don't plan to. I plan to keep my temper in check from now on. I have to show a little more maturity out there."

Now The Padres In The RJ Sweepstakes?

// posted by Rob @ 6:15 AM link  //  0 comments

U.S.S. Mariner Has Moved

Moving Yankee Stadium

$450 million in public infrastructure investment to build a hotel and conference center, a new Metro North stop, and a ferry landing, as well as three new parks elsewhere in the Bronx. Under state law, the team must replace the parkland it uses.

The new open-air stadium in Macombs Dam Park would seat around 50,000 people and include about 50 skyboxes. The current stadium holds about 57,000 people, but has fewer of the highly lucrative luxury boxes.

// posted by Rob @ 11:58 PM link  //  0 comments

• It's a mistake, because there's no way anybody needs to advance beyond second.
• It's a brilliant tactical move, because stupid Angel third base coach Ron Roenicke waved a still-creaky Anderson to third. Anderson's lost all his speed -- if you missed it, that Randy Winn single in the eighth should have been an out. Knowing Garret would be out by a mile if the fielders commit to a play on the left side of the diamond, Vlad draws the throw to first. In so doing, Vlad gives himself up so the farthest runner can stay on base.
• Update: It's a mistake because, as Mariners Wheelhouse points out, they should have known that

  we're talking about Randy Winn here - the guy whose arm has as much to do with throwing as a penguin's wing has to do with flying.

The Angels aren't hitting, not consistently -- and now, they're getting regressions from their starting pitching.

Sure, they have a chance in some theoretical sense to win the division or get into the postseason, but they're not playing like a team that's got it put together. Nobody's more representative of that than Anderson, a guy who's lost all his power since coming back from the DL.

They're finding ways to lose, not win. Sele was just horrible, giving up run after run, with Mike unwilling to give him the hook when it was obvious he wasn't going to hold up. They had a their chance in the 12th. And they blew it, against the weakest team in the division. Sorry, guys, but you just don't deserve to win.

Recap

// posted by Rob @ 10:59 PM link  //  2 comments

Recap

1. The Boston Herald reported McCourt's behind on the payments for one of his properties.
2. I have, on several occaisions, questioned Frank's ability to operate the team over the long haul.
3. This could therefore be the first drip of a much larger leak in the ship.
4. If it is, we can now mark the end of the McCourt tenure as starting here.
5. But we really won't know until it's time to re-sign Beltre and Gagné.
6. However, what does Frank going into bankruptcy mean? Will Fox be forced to take the team back? Is DePodesta a dead duck? We'll just have to wait.

// posted by Rob @ 9:16 PM link  //  0 comments

We really should long-term the guy. Really, really.

// posted by Rob @ 8:05 AM link  //  3 comments

"Nothing is out of the question," Stoneman said. "But if there was a fit, if we thought we had a deal that worked for us, we would have done it by now."

"He's getting back into his rhythm, he's repeating pitches, his delivery is smooth," Scioscia said. "And his weight is the same."

"Vladimir [Guerrero] and Jose have been like two pillars holding up a concrete slab," Scioscia said. "You need both, not one. Jose has put himself in an elite class of players. He's been a foundation in our lineup. Without Jose, it would be tough to talk about any playoff future for this team."

"I have no idea if Randy Johnson has turned down any kind of deal. I can say this: I have no deal with Arizona, so there's no deal to turn down."

"This situation is not unusual in real estate financing," said Larry Silverstein, McCourt's real estate attorney. "We are in active negotiations with the lender, which we believe will resolve the outstanding issues on this loan quickly."

// posted by Rob @ 6:58 AM link  //  1 comments

Recap

THE BAD is that I could enjoy NONE of this. Why? My good friend’s new girlfriend who, no matter how I tried, was always sitting next to me. And talking. And talking. And talking.

Fascinating subjects, too. “Our Latest Fight.” “Why I Don’t Like Baseball.” “I Know You’re Trying To Watch The Game And I Should Really Shut Up But Back To My Story.”

// posted by Rob @ 10:12 PM link  //  1 comments

Yeah.

No question that Lackey's turned it around now. What a fantastic game! He hasn't looked this sharp since the runup to the 2002 World Series.

And Percy came out with guys on base to get the save. I tell you, that's twice now I got worried seeing him come into a close game. He's only a shadow of his former self, but it all clicked tonight, and he even managed to strike out Soriano with his curveball. (By Gagné's standards, it's a hanging curve, but hey, a K's a K.)

Congratulations to both.

// posted by Rob @ 9:44 PM link  //  2 comments

TRB has recently run a good article on the makeup of the Rangers, and in particular, how former headcase Ryan Drese came to be actually -- gulp -- competent. As well, he's got a lengthy analysis of the Hart/Fuson/Hicks GM fiasco that will almost certainly result in Fuson's expulsion from the Rangers organization. (This has already resulted in calls from myself and U.S.S. Mariner to hire Fuson as scouting director for our respective clubs.) While those two articles still qualify as somewhat atypical (at least in terms of length), good work needs applause and encouragement.

James writes “if you [asked a computer] to pick the perfect over-rated player, you would get—Steve Garvey:

• Plays in Los Angeles.
• Has played for championship teams.
• Is a television personality.
• Is White.
• Is very well suited to his home park.
• His strengths are exactly the three ‘scoreboard’ statistics.
• He is an offensive player with very little defensive value.
• He does very few things well, but does them very well.”

// posted by Rob @ 7:35 AM link  //  1 comments

Yeah, the right answer is (a).

Recap

Karros wasn't the couch slug Mondesi was, but neither did he ever perform consistently. He did just well enough to earn the big bucks, but during his contract, never quite lived up to his billing.

The Diamond Angle has a good article about Steve Garvey and why he's not really Hall-of-Fame material. Those same arguments could be thrown at Karros, and Karros can't hold a candle to Garvey. Garvey was one of the NL's top five first basemen by VORP from 1974 through 1980. The Jamesian Hall of Fame monitor shows Karros with a score of 29, and Garvey with a score of 130. The Dodger hype machine had Karros tagged as the next Sure Thing; but he wasn't sure, not by a long shot. Had DePo been running the show while he was in town, I'm quite certain he'd have done the same thing Evans eventually did with him, and ship him to the first place needing salary relief.

(Incidentally, Kevin Malone gained infamy by writing spectacularly bad contracts, but perhaps we don't have all the information in just yet. Surely, there is a case to be made in his defense. I don't say it's a strong one, but so harsh blows the wind in the other direction that it seems something must by now have been overlooked.)

Goodbye, Eric; I'm sure it wasn't the career you'd hoped for. For both me and my wife, I think the most memorable moment will be the key home run he hit off Yankee reliever Juan Acevedo in last year's interleague games. Ironic that that moment should happen while he was a Cub, the team Dan Evans traded him to after spending the whole of his previous career as a Dodger. Who knows -- maybe he can go back to selling jeans.

// posted by Rob @ 9:56 PM link  //  0 comments

I still stand by my earlier comment that the season's over for the Angels. Tomorrow we go against Kenny Rogers, who's been very, very mean to the Angels.

// posted by Rob @ 9:50 PM link  //  3 comments

• Joe Sheehan, on the Snakes woes:

  From a performance-analysis standpoint, the Snakes have been an easy target because of their affection for older players. It's not at all surprising that a team with a roster as old as the Diamondbacks has collapsed; old age has been a big factor in the 2004 disappointment of their AL counterparts, the Mariners.

  The problem is that the team's older players are its best players. ....

• Will Carroll: Magglio Ordoñez has bone marrow edema, aka transient osteoporosis. Nobody knows when, if, or how well he'll be able to play professionally. Certainly, it makes Kenny Williams look dumb for not picking up Odalis Perez when he could have.

  Also, he expects Wash to miss two games but no more than that from his most recent injury, but Eric Chavez continues to report pain in his hand, saying "I doubt I'll be 100 percent by the end of the year, but it can improve." And Tim Hudson will probably make his return to the A's (didn't know he was down!) in the bullpen, not as part of the rotation.

• Derek Zumsteg: is this supposed to pass for humor?
• Carroll passes on more evidence the Rangers are due for a big regression any day now, as "the Rangers may include [DH/1B/PH Herbert] Perry in a deal for a pitcher such as Kris Benson or Shawn Estes." Huh? I'd love to see what happens there, as Estes' career is on its way down, and Perry and Brad Fullmer are two peas in a pod, nearly.

  In that same article: Red Sox' OF Trot Nixon down with quadriceps problems, possibly due to "myositis ossificans, something Boston fans will remember ended the career of Bruins star Cam Neely." Sounds nasty, and ill-timed considering the Sox' place in the standings.

// posted by Rob @ 12:25 PM link  //  0 comments

Dodgers 9, Rockies 7

Recap

Rangers 6, Angels 1

Recap

ESPN Loves Batgirl

Giambi In Mortal Peril?

Werth Gets Another Job

"I've seen him throw a few times," Werth said of Gagne. "It looks like he's got some good stuff. Seriously, I caught for 10 years. If I can't get the job done, I'd be very unhappy with myself."

McGriff Released

Eckersley, Molitor Enter The Hall of Fame

// posted by Rob @ 12:06 AM link  //  1 comments

Neither Adenhart's talent nor his signing bonus ($710,000) was typical of a 14th-rounder. The Williamsport (Md.) High righthander entered 2004 ranked as the nation's top high school prospect, and he battled LaGrange (Texas) High righty Homer Bailey for that distinction during the spring. While Bailey went on to get drafted seventh overall by the Reds and win BA's High School Player of the Year award, Adenhart didn't have a happy ending.

// posted by Rob @ 7:46 PM link  //  5 comments

Update: As expected, Mariners Wheelhouse already has a post up about this; I expect U.S.S. Mariner will shortly, as well.

Update: Not a tear, but he'll be out for a while. Hat tip to U.S.S. Mariner for the link.

// posted by Rob @ 5:05 PM link  //  2 comments

Padres 3, Dodgers 0

Recap

Nomo Feeling Better

The Case For Tracy

In every season, he has put the Dodgers in striking distance of the playoffs and there's really little else you can ask from your manager. It's just like with a starting pitcher. They just need to give their teams a chance to win and let the players take care of the rest.

Is it Jeff Weaver's fault that the Dodgers took a loss on Sunday? Of course not. He pitched a magnificent game, allowing just two runs in seven innings. But the rest of the players failed to get the job done and the team lost.

Is it Tracy's fault that the team has missed the playoffs in his first three years? Of course not. In that time he turned a team of overpriced malcontents into a contender.

Silly Trade Rumors

"Are there guys out there you would trade one of those guys for? Yes," Stoneman said. "Is it likely something like that will become available? Probably not."

Also, the New York papers once again fan the fires of Randy-lust among the Yankee dupes, claiming the Dodgers are in the race. Intradivision trade, hello?

Angels Goodyear, AZ Move Near Completion

Kotchman Down Again

Florida's #1 Pick Wasted

// posted by Rob @ 8:37 AM link  //  0 comments

"Right now, I don't know if there's anything that will make us incredibly better that's doable by Bill," Scioscia said. "And, hey, that's a championship-caliber ballclub in there."

As Richard pointed out yesterday, the Mariners suck. M's bloggers, please, don't take offense at the observation -- it's been true for months now, and everybody knows it. Mariner Optimist is still on strike, even though it's been over two months since his demand that the M's put together a string of five wins for him to reopen the doors.

What's scary is the Angels' next year. With literally millions tied up in non- or underperforming players -- here I'm thinking of Anderson, Salmon, Erstad, and Colon -- the 2005 Angels could be a fourth-place team in the AL West. Seattle won't be this bad next year; they're making the moves to unload some of the bad contracts.

Recap

// posted by Rob @ 5:04 PM link  //  3 comments

Angels 8, Mariners 4

If Sele didn't get this win, he's toast, especially, if he didn't win against this weak-hitting lineup. That said, three earned runs, three walks, and five hits in six innings isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.

Offensively, Ron Villone kept the Angels' bats pretty effectively in check. Good news: Timmy 2-4, and Robb Quinlan's 3-4 night, with a home run. Erstad's three-run dinger, too.

You know your bullpen is weak when Josh Paul homers.

Recap

Washburn To Miss Next Start

Dodgers 12, Padres 2

Is Jayson Werth really a number two hitter? And is Green maybe making a comeback we thought earlier extremely unlikely, if not impossible? He's had five homers this month, his biggest single-month total since September 2003. And the month's not out yet.

And Encarnacion homering -- well, it might keep him on the lineup a little more, but I wouldn't count on it if I were him.

Recap

// posted by Rob @ 7:28 AM link  //  0 comments

"You can't say that yet. It's a three-year deal."

// posted by Rob @ 4:54 AM link  //  0 comments

Dodgers 3, Padres 2

One day, Gagné will become Rod Beck. Tonight, though, he's the winning pitcher. Thanks, Belly.

Recap

Angels 8, Mariners 2

Figgins now has the fourth-highest VORP of any AL third baseman right now, higher even than Eric Chavez. With another homer under his belt, it's conceivable he's got even higher numbers.

Recap

A Kiss Is Just A Kiss...

Vladimir Guerrero is a marvelous hitter, but, oh, is he a dumb one late in the game when relievers, knowing Guerrero's penchant for swinging at anything, routinely get him out in clutch situations on errant pitches he should ignore.

The fellow batting behind him, Jose Guillen, is just as careless.

These two guys might be the worst situational hitters in their sport.

But, still, the Angels have unraveled because of their faulty pitching, not their undisciplined hitting.

I don't blame Ramon Ortiz for being peeved at Mike Scioscia. The guy has been remanded to the bullpen where he has watched with growing dissatisfaction one lame performance after another by the Angels' starters, especially by the wealthiest of them all, Mr. Colon.

What a bust this guy has been, irrespective of his better-than- average performances in his last three starts, including Thursday's three-hit, seven-inning effort against the Texas Rangers.

Mike Scioscia should stop being Colon's enabler.

Instead of insisting that Colon is a mere "five to six pounds over his usual weight,' Scioscia should in no uncertain terms let Colon know he's in terrible shape and that he should drop at least 40 of the 270-or-so pounds he's lugging around on his bulging anatomy.

No wonder the New York Yankees and many other major league teams took a pass on Colon during the offseason.

Congratulations, Jon?

Yankees 8, Red Sox 7

"My ineptness and their good at-bats in [the fifth and sixth] were the game, in my mind," said Schilling.

Nine and a half back. Only the NL West (25.5 games between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks) has a bigger spread between the top and bottom teams (20.5 between the Yanks and Blue Jays).

Recap

// posted by Rob @ 11:13 PM link  //  2 comments

If you've got a dad, give him a call and let him know what he means to you. You don't know how many days you'll have to do it.

// posted by Rob @ 8:08 PM link  //  2 comments

• David Eckstein, and his admirer.
• Adam Kennedy and his admirer.
• Jeff DaVanon.
• Bartolo Colon
• Jeff Weaver (hee!).
• Shawn Green.
• Benji Freakin' Gil.

And by the way... hey, Bart, you look a lot thinner in those pictures. Something to aim for.

Update: Thanks to Richard, I can now say: bring it on, Maya! Hee!

// posted by Rob @ 3:51 PM link  //  4 comments

Barfalo's Return: Angels 11, Rangers 1

Recap

Collect $200 As You Pass Go: Dodgers 4, Rockies 2

Should we designate Bradley the Rally Dude? Seven RBIs and three dingers on the month. And he always seems to come up with 'em when the team's down, too.

Recap

OT: Silly Website Du Jour: Ugly Dresses

It's Not The National Anthem, Stupidheads

OT: Snack Cracker Arrested

// posted by Rob @ 5:58 PM link  //  2 comments

Anaheim Angels, AL West

Assume the division will be taken with 95 wins, the current rate of the Texas Rangers. The Angels would have to win 46 out of the remaining 68 games to play, or a .676 WPCT, higher than they've done even when they had Glaus's bat in the lineup. But what about the wild card? The A's and Red Sox are on target for a .548 WPCT, or an 89-73 record. So say 90 wins gets the wild card. That still means a .556 WPCT, and the team would have to win 42 of 68, or a .618 WPCT, a rate they only accomplished in May with Glaus.

Los Angeles Dodgers, NL West

The Dodgers are on pace to take the division with 94 wins, or a .581 WPCT; they're currently 54-39. To keep this up, the Dodgers have to win 40 more games from the 69 remaining, or a winning percentage of .580.

Shut up, Rob. You'll jinx it.

Update: oops, got the games remaining WPCT for the Dodgers wrong. It's a mite higher.

// posted by Rob @ 7:36 AM link  //  3 comments

Tyler Bleszinski, Athletics Nation: To summarize how I feel about the Dodgers is simple…common enemies and a shared ideology. The Dodgers and A’s are on the same side in the Great Idea War raging in baseball between the old school small ballers and the new school Moneyballers. They, along with the Red Sox and Blue Jays, have formed an alliance in this war. Not to mention that Dodger fans hate Giants and Angels fans.

David Pinto, Baseball Musings: ... The most obvious need is 1st base, which also happens to be the easiest position to fill. John Olerud is now available and he’ll be real cheap. He won’t hit for power, but he’ll get on base.

Alex Belth, Bronx Banter: It’s hard for me to know what to make of the Dodgers. Truthfully, the only time I’ve really paid attention to them was when the Yankees were in town.

Alex's Father: Is it serious?

Surgeon: It's worse than we thought... Alex... he's become a Yankee fan. We're going to have to operate, but the chances of success are slim...

Peter White, Mariner Musings: Still not outscoring Detroit.

Steve Treder, The Hardball Times: To a Giants fan, the 2004 Dodgers are the undead. They’ve been clubbed, slashed, shot, burned, and buried six feet underground, only to be found up and around yet again, greedily consuming wins, stalking first place with a glazed-eyed mindlessness that maddens us all the more.

DIE, Cesar Izturis! DIE, Shawn Green! DIE, Alex Freaking Cora! But death seems to hardly slow their monstrous trudge.

// posted by Rob @ 10:55 PM link  //  2 comments

Lose this game, and the Angels are six back of first. Lose the series, and they're done.

Update: Lose it they do. As Sean observed, it's beginning to look a lot like Christmas, that is, time to start thinking about the Winter Meetings. At least they made one good move and DFA'd Shane Halter. About time; when bench guys are allowed to accumulate ten errors in only 243.1 innings, you've gotta think it's way past time.

I'm going to start thinking about what this team can do to right itself in 2005; on the surface, we're going to have some severe problems because of lack of production from Anderson (after a month and a half we can't just dismiss his lack of power as a fluke), Salmon (Timmy, you had a great career, but it's time to hang 'em up), and Erstad ($8M/year for J.T. Snow is just too much). Should the Angels create a logjam at first by returning Erstad to center and make Anderson play first, while hoping Kotchman finally shows up as the power hitter we've hoped for? Who will play centerfield, knowing Erstad won't last a whole season on his rickety hamstrings? And then what about the logjam in the infield if McPherson comes up and does acceptably? Ugh. Time to punt; more on this later.

// posted by Rob @ 5:38 PM link  //  5 comments

Aurilia To The Pads

Angels' Unit Pursuit Over?

Pitching Updates

Green To Stay In Six Hole

// posted by Rob @ 1:08 PM link  //  2 comments

W-L-W-W-W-W-W-W-L-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W

Do you like this, Dodger fans? Is this sweet? Is winning against the Angels, Snakes, and Astros a measure of the team's mettle, or is it just a run through weak teams like last year's interleague streak versus the Tigers and Indians? The Dodgers face a weak lineup of Colorado and a slumping San Diego to end the month. We could really put some distance between us and the Giants here. Stay tuned.

L-W-L-L-L-L-W-L-W-W-W-W-L-W-L-W

The message here is, don't get cocky. We've seen leads change hands many, many times here: the Giants are just as capable of going on a tear as the Dodgers are of slumping. Losing to the now-division-leading Dodgers (though not at the time) didn't help, and neither did time spent with cross-bay rival Oakland. Neither did a series loss to bottom-feeder Colorado. The Giants will play the weakened Padres and streaking Cards for six games and five games respectively to close out the month.

W-W-W-W-L-L-L-L-L-W-W-L-W-L-W-L-L-L

If you believe Cub Reporter, the dream of winning the division is over. The Cards absolutely crushed the injury-riddled Cubs this month; Chicago is 1-4 against St. Louis, 10 games back of the division, two and a half games back in the wild card. Will the Score Bard's dream of a Cubs Wild Card come true?

L-W-L-L-W-W-L-W-W-W-W-L-W-L-L-L

.500 ball isn't terrible if the Red Sox are one of your opponents, but getting swept by the Indians at home just smells too much like a team that's going nowhere. The momentum from consecutive road sweeps of the Chisox and the exceedingly weak Blue Jays was snuffed out by the delay from the All Star break.

Is it time to start thinking about that big D-Mac callup?

L-L-L-W-W-L-W-W-L-L-W-W-W-W-L-W

What's gotten into the water in Texas? For one thing, they played the deer-in-the-headlights Astros, won the series with Cleveland, swept Toronto, and split with the Red Sox. Will Billy beat these guys to the top -- again?

// posted by Rob @ 7:40 PM link  //  2 comments

Dodgers 7, Astros 6

Recap

Indians 8, Angels 5

Whither Sele? Was his first half excellence a last hurrah? His peripherals were down badly to begin with (4.40 K/9 YTD vs 6.19 K/9 career), and I've been wondering when or if he'd collapse. He's earned patience, but how much is another question.

Recap

// posted by Rob @ 10:55 PM link  //  0 comments

The drumbeat for Randy Johnson among Angels fans has started.

Ross Newhan in yesterday's Times said Arte's peregrinations around the park are now met with questions about Randy Johnson:

"They've always stopped me to say hello and kind of grade me on different things," Moreno said last week. "Some like this, others don't like that.

"Now they're unanimous. They all want us to get Randy Johnson, and I'm getting blistered."

June 7, 2003: There are open questions about Randy Johnson, and Friday's UTK seems to have opened quite the can of worms surrounding the reigning Cy Young Award winner. As I reported, Johnson is having a series of injections to lubricate his knee and replace the missing cushion and lubrication that should naturally be there. The substance, Synvisc, is administered in a series of three injections, with the first performed Friday, the next scheduled on Tuesday and the final probably the next Friday. There are whispers coming from multiple sources that the Synvisc injections aren't the solution, but merely a stopgap measure to try and get Johnson through the season. The underlying problem is rumored to be an osteochondral defect and the normal therapy for that is a microfracture surgery or reconfiguration of the bone through an osteotomy.

The problem is similar to that of Mo Vaughn [emphasis mine], but a better recent comp is Marvin Benard. Benard had microfracture surgery, took about four months to get back into competitive shape, and has had some setbacks along the way. If Johnson can be babied through to the end of the season, he could have the more extensive surgery in the off-season. Still, despite the best efforts of a good Arizona medical staff, Johnson's knee could flare up under the unusual stresses placed on the plant leg of a power pitcher. There's nothing to say that the Unit can't do it, but if you're looking at risks, Johnson's red light just started flashing.

Johnson missed half a season last year due to injuries. And sure, he's working just fine this year -- so far. But who knows how long it will be before some other joint or tendon gives out. Is this really the pitcher you want on the mound?

// posted by Rob @ 12:05 PM link  //  1 comments

Angels 8, Red Sox 1

Must we suffer through another month of Salmon's "hitting" before he puts together some solid at bats? Erstad, though: I might have to retract some things I've said about him. In fact, if he keeps this up (3-4, all singles, and 2 RBI) he might earn a promotion to the nine hole.

Recap

Dodgers 7, D'Backs 6

Recap

The Angelos Who Isn't An Angel

Peter, how could you possibly look at this club and see a contender? How have you ever looked at this club and saw a contender? Yes, the team signed four "high-end" free agents. Guess what...to be "competitive", the club would have had to sign at least three more! Three more! (Two starters, and a slugging outfielder. No one could have seen a .500 record without at least three more star performances.)

A Fine Idea

Whereas: good baseball Karma dictates that we not name a team the “Senators” after a twice-disappointing D.C. franchise, and instead name a team the “Grays” after a franchise that won eight Negro National League titles in nine years.

The Big Hurt, Hurt

"When you have Frank and [Paul] Konerko in the same spot, you cannot play the way I would like to play,'' Guillen said. "But, I would rather have Konerko hit home runs and Frank hit home runs, than play little ball. We have a better chance -- with the way we're swinging and the pitching staff we're playing right now -- to use the hit-and-run and move guys over.''

// posted by Rob @ 11:22 AM link  //  0 comments

1. The Diamondbacks have to ask for too much. A player of Randy Johnson's caliber will make a huge impact, to be sure, but the quality of talent the Angels would have to give up would be correspondingly huge; packages including two or three of Mathis, McPherson, and Kotchman have been discussed publically. All these positions are needs:
   • First base needs a quality power hitter. Erstad's all but lost his. Kotchman didn't do well in his first callup, but as they say, power is the last tool to develop.
   • We can be pretty certain Glaus won't be back to play third base, despite his agent's wishful thinking. Glaus might be an answer at first, but if Shawn Green is any precedent, we can safely bet the Angels won't be betting that way. (The fact that they didn't renew his contract in the 2003/2004 offseason was also a strong indicator the front office had concerns about his recovery from his shoulder injury.) Dallas McPherson's power display in the minors has been consistently impressive, though his double platinum sombrero still shows he needs more time. Figgy, while fantastic offensively, is nothing more than Eckstein Plus, not the power hitter that the position really requires.
   • At the catcher position, Benjie and Jose Molina together, while still competent, show signs of wear, Benjie particularly. His troublesome hamstrings lead me to think his weight is weighing on his ability. Mathis, of the three top Angels prospects, might not be needed immediately, but catchers decline faster than any other position.
2. Johnson's pre-existing knee problem requires regular cortisone shots to keep it operable. Darren Dreifort of the Dodgers has a similar injury, and it sidelined him all of last year. In short, Johnson is an injury waiting to happen.
3. RJ's injury has shown up already in reduced skills. Last year, his ERA climbed to 4.26, the highest it's been since 1989, while his K/9 declined to 9.87, the lowest it had been since 1990. This year, his 10.19 K/9 is the second lowest it's been since 1990. Declining peripherals were the reason I was uncomfortable with the Colon signing; it's now the principle reason why I'd be concerned if the Angels picked up Johnson.
4. Age. RJ is a 40-year-old pitcher; we can reasonably infer that he'll decline over the remainder of his contract.

But there is something superficially offensive about a great player asking out the first time he's on a bad team, in this case one ravaged by injuries. In the last 10 years, Johnson has pitched for six first-place teams, two second-place clubs, one that finished third and now the last-place Diamondbacks. OK, the '98 Mariners were 48-59 when he was traded to the Astros, who finished 102-60 with a huge lift from Johnson.

// posted by Rob @ 9:58 AM link  //  1 comments

And listen to their broadcasters.

Thanks to Time Warner Cable, who is giving us a free week of MLB Extra Innings, so we could make this discovery.

// posted by Rob @ 6:51 PM link  //  3 comments

Dear Chicago Cubs, Christian Ruzisch, and Cubs fans everywhere:

This blog normally doesn't concern itself with the Cubs, but due to marital affiliations (e.g., I married a Cub fan -- hey, it could be the title of a movie someday), I must now speak out. The word is that an MRI on Prior's elbow came back negative, but despite this, he continues, on and off, to experience pain:

"It's something I've been dealing with on and off since spring training," Prior said. "It has been kind of a mental battle, going in every game and battling myself to make sure I'm all right, make sure I'm healthy. Hopefully we can get some answers this time on what it really is. I can't tell you where I'm at or where I'm going to be.

You may recall at some point the Angels' Garret Anderson missed over a month due to mystery pains later diagnosed as undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis.

The physician's name is Dr. David Brown. Schedule an appointment.

Sincerely,

- Rob, who won't hear the end of it if Prior can't stay in the rotation

// posted by Rob @ 6:13 PM link  //  0 comments

It wasn't a bad game, except for all the defensive miscues. Kennedy's late break for a ball that should have been caught, bad breaks on strike calls -- some of it looked to mirror Boston's side of yesterday's game. Good news? Well, Ersty's hitting. Vlad's slumping a bit, so if and GA he can get back on track, the team's got a good chance.

Recap

// posted by Rob @ 4:06 AM link  //  0 comments

Well, screw them. They're the damn Yankees. They can suck it in for a while, just like the rest of the league that doesn't own a $200 million payroll. (George summarily reassigned scouting director Lin Garrett, but that won't turn up any actual prospects anytime soon. How's the air down there in the bottom of the draft order, George? How many first round picks did you give up, eh?)

And if the Diamondbacks are dumb enough to give Johnson up to the Yankees for a box of rocks, they'll will have earned not only their fans' undying contempt, but seasons full of games like tonight's 6-2 romp at the heels of the Dodgers.

Ishii -- gee, 6 IP on 76 pitches? Economy, man. Like I said in the Dodgers midterm report, he's learned how to pitch without using too many pitches. In a hitter's haven like the soon-to-no-longer-be-the-BOB, that's no small accomplishment. And with the hitting pretty evenly spread out across the lineup, you can't complain about the offense, either. Everybody contributed.

Recap

// posted by Rob @ 10:36 PM link  //  0 comments